The EPS is now squarely on board with tropical genesis occurring with the current wave in the eastern Atlantic.
It’s early climo wise for action in the MDR and east/central Caribbean, but guidance across the board shows a relatively favorable upper level environment with dramatically reduced trade winds. Anomalous for this time of year.
The wave itself is convectively active, but disorganized. The NHC now has a lemon on it.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions could become conducive for gradual development of this
system by early next week as the disturbance moves westward at
around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Hagen/Berg