WxWatcher007

Recon looks like it is approaching the center. Lowest extrapolated pressure so far is 1000.1mb at ~5k ft.

I knew it wouldn't be long before the model slander began Recon has just started sampling the storm. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Here’s the actual data.

Recon starting its descent into the system now. The first thing to watch for will be how tilted the vortex is. It looked like decoupling was close on visible but the last few frames look like that has halted, at least for now.

Tropical tracking ain't for the faint of heart lol

It's pretty straightforward. The track is very sensitive to intensity and that's across guidance. Been that way for days. Weaker solutions mean a further east track, and when you have globals trying to resolve TC intensity in a steering environment that's highly sensitive to it you'll get waffling. I wouldn't be locking onto anything strong or weak yet. Next 24 hours are critical.

I'm not that far out yet, but the GFS could be looking at a longer recovery from the current shear.

You have to download it, but here's a good powerpoint on it https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt

Yeah, there's a tradeoff. Wind for rain and coastal flooding depending on the heading. We actually had a significant flash flood event this morning here due to Fred. Shades of 1955.

The first recon flight is wheels up and en route to Henri. Looks like it's the low level recon flight.

Yeah I haven't come across anything like that. I just look at deep layer shear and maybe wind vectors at different heights on the Euro and GFS.

Shear vector and height matter a lot. Last year, Isaias went from unfavorable to favorable environment as it was paralleling the FL/Carolina coast because of the heading change. I believe that also was the case for Dorian as it started going up the same region. For Fred, we saw less deep layer shear near the FL panhandle that allowed it to organize (though not fully) despite decent shear at higher levels.

A couple of important points from that 11am disco 1) despite the shear, objective analysis still has a strong TS to low end hurricane currently. Recon will sort that out but given the shear we're seeing Henri is hanging tough so far. 2) It's still moving south of due west. Seems like a small thing, but that probably increases the likelihood of a more westward track as it parallels the coast, which puts it in a better TCHP/SST environment. 3) NHC hasn't latched onto the stall/loop idea, but it has discussed acceleration more as it comes north. Definitely worth watching because that's how we'd get better winds up here. Slowing with rapid decay won't get it done. 4) Note the language when talking about shear. Henri should find a favorable environment for intensification if shear is very low, especially if it is able to continue with at least a strong mid level vortex and deep convection. 5) They also note the expansion of the wind field as it heads north.

NHC has it analyzed at 25kts per their discussion fwiw. I got 32kts from CMISS. Looks like it decreases significantly in about 24 hours. From the NHC discussion: The current north-northeasterly shear over Henri is forecast to continue for about another day, and given the degraded structure of the system it seems unlikely that the storm will strengthen during that time period. However, the shear is expected to decrease on Friday and it will remain quite low through the weekend. Therefore, strengthening to a hurricane is expected during that time period. Once Henri crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream in a few days, steady weakening is predicted. The NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

This is a great visualization on what to watch for. Henri is holding right now because both the low and mid level vortexes are robust but shear is analyzed at nearly 32kts currently. Decoupling could have a significant impact on later intensification and track.

We get a direct hit and stall here from a cat 1 it'd be catastrophic in parts of the state. But we're a long way off from the worst case scenario...

After this morning in CT, I'm more concerned than I was yesterday about hydro impacts. We don't need a direct hit to see significant flash flooding issues.

I haven’t even really looked yet. Still dealing with Connie…I mean Fred’s flooding…

5.07” estimated here in my area.

That was impressive. Waterfalls coming from the apartment buildings over here.

Off to bed. Here's the 00z EPS. Second image might be a better visualization.

All the guidance weakens this on final approach and most do it pretty dramatically. I think it’d be a surprise if we saw anything higher than a low end cat 1 at this latitude given the current setup. You know this but if we wanted high end wind from a purely tropical entity up here it’d need to be hauling through the region. We don’t have that setup here, so it almost doesn’t matter how strong this gets down south. It’ll decay quickly on final approach. Looks like it might be from what I see around hour 42. That and perhaps a little more shear from interaction with the trough. Not sure it’ll play out like that because if it developed a core like the run projects it should be more resilient in the face of that, but that combination would take any higher end intensification off the table IMO.

Moving this slowly up here, sure. But that doesn’t explain Friday and early Saturday off the SE/southern Mid-Atlantic coast. That looks like an environment that wouldn’t cause a breakdown in the internal structure. The Euro is the only model doing it and I’m not sure why.

Even though the 00z Euro was closer to the other guidance, it was another odd run structurally. It deepens Henri over the next 24 hours to ~986mb when the environment should be hostile, but then attempts to do what it’s been doing the entire time and weaken the system significantly on Friday and early Saturday when it’s likely to be in a more favorable environment. The stronger low early allows for the general westward shift, and it essentially loops over SE MA as it decays on Monday. Recon will really be helpful here and I’m glad the missions are starting later today. For reasons discussed earlier the Euro is practically flying blind right now.