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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    Extrapolated 914.4mb
  2. WxWatcher007
    It’s amazing how jet interactions have helped a number of our hurricanes this season.
  3. WxWatcher007
    65mph/991mb yesterday at 11am
  4. WxWatcher007
  5. WxWatcher007
    Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (8) Hurricanes: 10 (6) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H), Milton (MH)
  6. WxWatcher007
    Saying nothing of what happens from here, this is a tremendous victory for intensity modeling and the HAFS. The NHC telegraphed this was possible before RI even took place and that’s in large part due to the incredible advances in intensity modeling. Yes, it happened faster than anticipated, but it wasn’t a surprise.
  7. WxWatcher007
    Milton is now the second category five hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
  8. WxWatcher007
    Looks like recon is circling now just shy of the center.
  9. WxWatcher007
    Yeah, it does look like an ERC could start but probably not before a little more intensification.
  10. WxWatcher007
    Closing in on a SW to NE pass.
  11. WxWatcher007
    Agree with Normandy. I don’t think it changes anything materially.
  12. WxWatcher007
    I think there’s still enormous value in looking at ensembles, and I think that’s why we’re seeing slight north ticks from the NHC. It’s also important to highlight that the ensembles continue to show northward sensitivity to a stronger storm. Given where we are right now with the structure and intensity of Milton, I’d lean north of Tampa at this time. Obviously still time for things to change.
  13. WxWatcher007
    At this range, I just want to see that there’s a visible seedling and generally favorable upper level steering pattern for a northward track. It looks like both boxes are tentatively checked, but of course all that can change.
  14. WxWatcher007
    3rd all time with an 80kt intensity increase in 24 hours per the NHC (Wilma & Felix)
  15. WxWatcher007
    The Yucatan coastline.
  16. WxWatcher007
    Mph yes
  17. WxWatcher007
    Going to be a very close call for the coast, but it probably misses. edit: Mexican coast
  18. WxWatcher007
    Latest VDM has 935mb and a 8nm wide eye. Now that’s a pinhole.
  19. WxWatcher007
    It’s always a low likelihood of a direct hit up here, but it’s something worth a casual eye.
  20. WxWatcher007
    It’s extremely close to becoming a 5, but we have to pay attention to how this faster intensification and time between an ERC impacts track, surge potential, and future intensity for FL. The NHC advisory should be telling, but I’m guessing with this peak, a category four at landfall looks increasingly possible.
  21. WxWatcher007
    #QualityOverQuantity
  22. WxWatcher007
    Recon is now looking to conduct a SE to NW pass. It would not surprise me at all if Milton has cleared that threshold.
  23. WxWatcher007
    I think there will be some of course whenever this undergoes (another) ERC, but I never fully bought into substantial weakening in the hours before landfall for reasons I mentioned last night.
  24. WxWatcher007
    Milton takes everyone’s attention right now, but the follow up signal in the western Caribbean that the GFS has had is getting a little more EPS support each day. The lid has been blown off and something is going to need to put it back on to stop the train of nukes.
  25. WxWatcher007
    Thanks to the mod that changed the title. I was too busy looking at recon’s jaw dropping data.
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