WxWatcher007

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 The center of the system is beginning to emerge into the northwestern Gulf. Surface observations do not show very strong winds over the area at this time, and the current intensity is held at 25 kt. This is consistent with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. There is significant westerly vertical wind shear over the disturbance, with most of the deep convection displaced well away from the center of the low. Given that there has been no noticeable increase in the deep convective organization of the disturbance, it is being maintained as a potential tropical cyclone for this advisory. Based on the center fixes, the initial motion estimate, 050/5 kt, is similar to that from the previous advisory. There has been little change in the track model guidance. The system is expected to accelerate northeastward in the flow on the southern and southwestern side of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern United States. The official forecast track shows the disturbance or storm moving just offshore of, and parallel to, the Texas coast during the next day or so. Then the system is likely to go back onshore late Wednesday or Wednesday night. No significant change has been made to the track forecast for this advisory, and the official forecast is fairly close to the corrected consensus solution. The center should move far enough offshore on Wednesday for some intensification to occur due to a combination of warm Gulf waters and upper-level divergence. However the SHIPS guidance diagnoses fairly strong shear over the area during the next 24-36 hours which should limit strengthening up to landfall. The NHC forecast continues to indicate the system becoming a tropical storm tomorrow, which is also shown in the IVCN intensity model consensus. Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards with this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely through Thursday across Louisiana and southern Mississippi, and is possible near the Upper Texas coast. Flash flooding is also possible across Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through the end of the week. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the weekend. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Louisiana coast on Wednesday from Sabine Pass to Morgan City where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 27.6N 97.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/1200Z 28.5N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 18/0000Z 30.2N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 32.1N 90.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Adams

Really want to see if the risk lifts northeast in the next day out there. Impacts here TBD.

Looks like a pretty high tornado risk but I’m most interested in wind/derecho potential. Wish we could run something all the way east.

OT but Wednesday is looking nasty out in IL/IN @weatherwiz

We've been talking about a window for tropical development for weeks, and now we have our first invest of the season. Regardless of development, heavy rain will continue across much of the south. Separating out a thread so we can continue the discussion here. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake

Flash flooding in the south as odds increase… Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake

Flash flooding along the Gulf coast as odds increase… Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake

I hadn’t thought of the severe implications, but that’s very interesting. Development odds have increased to 30% with the NHC.

From motherships to barely agitated cumulus?

And until last winter, they were challenging some of us for seasonal snow

Numerous tornado warnings back in PA lol.

For those still watching, the last two Euro runs do something very weird with our area of interest. It tries to organize it well inland and treks it across the south. Can't say I've seen that before lol. Still a chance for some marginal development later in the week as a front tries to get involved in the NW Gulf.

Looks like it's about to pour up at WXW2.

Saw the announcement when it happened. Congrats! Will push some local friends y'all way. How is the network paid for? State funding?

I'd take the high res depictions in a heartbeat. 3k and HRRR looked juicy overnight.

Gorgeous day

Absolutely sick of missing storms here in Death Valley but at least we got a beautiful sunset out of it. More fireflies are out tonight as well.

New England climo

Time for the first analysis of the 2026 season. As @nw baltimore wx notes, our area of interest, which was the first lemon of the season deep in the Bay of Campeche, is now a banana, which scrapes the western Gulf. 1. Western Gulf: A broad area of low pressure has formed over the far southern Bay of Campeche and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary, but there too, conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive for any development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. You can see below that we have a broad area of spin, and in the Bay of Campeche, where the concave nature of the coastline allows for consolidation of vorticity, this may be a favorable factor that's now being picked up by the AI models--which have frankly outperformed the legacy models recently. Aside from being buried currently in the geographically favorable BoC, the conditions for tropical genesis look marginal. SSTs are fine, but they're marginal. Nothing too surprising for this time of year. Wind shear currently isn't an issue, but upper level winds do not look favorable outside of a small window, with a huge ribbon of high shear across the Gulf and through the Caribbean and Atlantic. That said, you don't need much for marginal development this time of year, and while the legacy models (GFS/Euro and their ensembles) were bullish earlier on central/eastern Gulf development that ended up being wrong, with AI so far winning out on the possible zone of development. While the legacy ensembles quickly bury this broad low in Mexico and crucially--keep it there. The AI models pick up the low before it gets too far inland. That keeps the window open for development as it curves around the western Gulf. Note the difference between the EPS and AI EPS! Google DeepMind, which I believe performed the best in highlighting tropical genesis signals last season, is starting to show more interest in this idea as well. This one has a chance for some marginal development, if it can stay offshore for an extended period of time. Either way, this continues to highlight the signal I've mentioned before for heavy rain in the southeast.

LGA G69 on that latest thunderstorm

A little concerned that I only saw two fireflies in my backyard tonight. Hopefully they’re just early.

We’d take

Can’t wait for the good stuff to hit up here, but today was pretty nice.