WxWatcher007

Headlong into it

That’s exactly what a TC would look like in a stable airmass lol.

Continuing to move south of forecast

That's a lot ot get rid of lol

The maritimes have been on a generational run. Seriously.

It’s underdispursive but you get the picture.

I know tropical is an imby sport to most here, but some do forget that we have Atlantic Canada posters too. While the pattern isn’t conducive for the EC, the maritimes have more wiggle room and NS and especially Newfoundland are still squarely in watch territory right now. The exact parabolic curve matters to them.

I mean…this says it all.

The Atlantic ridging may actually be doable. Erin has been south of modeled so far and the trend toward a stronger ridge seems to have some legs (though the GFS was always underdoing it imo). The issue is later--that UL steering pattern over the EC in the long range is anything but a NE landfall look--as folks have said. If that massive trough in Canada can be blunted and the ridging in the Atlantic continues to look stronger...then maybe we're talking.

The trend today has been a further south track and that seems more plausible given the convective trend tonight with Erin but generally agree. Still a long way to go.

Remember that you need two huge changes to occur: 1) the Atlantic ridge is substantially stronger for longer to push Erin deeper into the SW Atlantic AND 2) A cutoff trough at the right time to pull it up the coast, which also requires that Canadian troughing showing up in the long range across guidance to essentially be replaced with a ridge or at least something that isn't screaming NW flow. Not impossible, but that is a very tall task. @CoastalWxwe go all winter and summer with ridges, SW flow, and trough de-amplification and as soon as there's a tropical system that all goes poof. San Diego

18z GFS more in line with Euro. I do wonder how much more change that ridge can take. Again, even if it means nothing for us (likely) if there is troughing diving to our west that opens the door for Hazey and the crew.

Yes. That massive trough the Euro is toying with will kick this if that materializes (and it’s unclear if it will to that extent)

I still think the GFS and its ensembles are too fast with the Atlantic ridge weakness, but we’d need substantial changes at medium range just to be a long shot in the ballgame for a close EC approach (saying nothing of the maritimes).

Just a monster. I mean look at this. 12z And 00z Life support is probably putting it kindly though watch out Atlantic Canada..

Sad to hear that but congrats on grad school! I still kick around the idea of going back for a met degree but I think that ship has sailed. Maybe some sort of a certificate though to enhance my forecasting knowledge.

Let’s get the pick ‘em going!

Yes, folks here are always too quick to cancel, but we gotta be honest—you would need a lot to happen to make this a bona fide EC threat that this point. You will see this on ensembles—which are the better option for analysis—but I’m using the op because it’s easier to see. The troughing signal to our west is obviously important to having any chance but it’s poorly timed, poorly positioned, and too slow to cut off. That can change at this range but that’s a secondary issue. The first and most fundamental issue is that the weakness in Atlantic ridging is happening way way way too early. It’s basically turning near Bermuda. That weakness isn’t out in weenie range. And while to Pope’s point it can change (and I think the GFS is too early with the weakness), whenever you’re asking a lot of the steering conditions in tropical, it usually doesn’t work out. So while it’s not over technically, the odds of a U.S. hit are looking increasingly small imo. Last thing I’ll say though is that even with the super ensemble the longer range members tend to be underdispursive. If that troughing in the eastern US is real I’d watch in Atlantic Canada. They’ve actually done exceptionally well with these kind of setups in recent years.

The next time Wiz complains about every swirl getting named by the NHC I'll just show him this. IR, surface obs, and sat wind estimates have had this a TC for a good portion of the day.

Great Lakes low torches the mid levels. 35 and pouring rain.

Keep the troughs away so we can get some tropical

High of 91 here at home

Now those definitely produce.

The folks that like tracking modeled snowstorms more than watching actual snow falling should enjoy this

CVs are the worst. Give me homebrew any day.