WxWatcher007

I don't think people realize how hard it is to get true CVs this way. Not just here in New England, but the entire U.S. coastline. I went back the other day and ran some numbers. Since the start of our exceptionally busy period of Atlantic activity in 2017, there have been 157 named storms in the basin. Only 19, or 12% of those systems, have been CVs--which I defined as developing within about 5 degrees of the Cabo Verde Islands. Of those 19 CVs, only 3 (16%) have impacted land. Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Larry in 2021. Now, to the point that some have made, Florence and Larry were infamously locks to go OTS before they weren't, but statistically that's rare. CVs that made landfall accounts for just 1.9% of all the storms that developed in the 2017-25 period. It takes an extraordinary set of circumstances for CVs to hit the US.

I haven’t weighed in on the great debate and I love summer, but the dog days are over and the step down is here. Still summer…but you know what’s coming next.

Man I haven’t seen that style loop in ages

That’s awesome

My .03 backyard tells the Euro to go to hell in winter and summah.

I know I'm not the only one that wants this place to continue being what it has been (for the most part)--a place for analysis and sharing information & passion for tropical meteorology.

Me yesterday.

Still squarely a threat to Newfoundland.

New invest in the Gulf, with time as a limiting factor.

Don’t worry the trough will be there whenever tropical reaches the SW Atlantic.

I did! .03”

.01" at home

Long shot but yeah, still worth watching. The UL pattern over Canada is critical to how close this gets. Note how much less aggressive the trough is in SE Canada. That has a ripple effect across the steering pattern players. 00z 12z

Well, it's still an outlier. For a closer approach you absolutely need the big ULL in Canada to back off. I don't think that's impossible. The cutoff in the GL region is a whole different level of complexity however imo. This still looks like a very very low chance for us, with meaningful risk in NF. I guess it's still worth a casual eye lol. Yeah...I'm not sure how that'll play out over time.

I can’t. I just can’t.

I'm just chewing on that run. I want to see some ensemble support. That said, you can see how quickly things go from well OTS (Newfoundland exception) to a very close approach with changes in the pattern over the US and Canada. The big ULL doesn't drop down as aggressively, the retrograding ridge over the US kind of meanders, and that allows the Atlantic ridge to push the door a little more. 00z 12z Now of course, because there's no cutoff in the GL region this eventually gets kicked, but that was modestly intriguing. SHIPS does foresee a better environment further west, and the organization of Erin is pretty good for its current intensity. I think it could really pop once it's able to get enough of a convective burst to get the engine going. That said, convection continues to fire on the southern side of the storm and the track continues to come in ever so slightly south of forecast. I still think a NE impact is fantasy land, but the door for a closer approach is not fully closed. Honestly, and this is also forever out, Erin could be good for a PRE somewhere depending on how that trough eventually evolves. Just food for thought. Also, this looks like a possible threat to Newfoundland. Been saying that for days now lol.

91.1 at home along with dews…

It would require a dramatic shift for this to threaten the US east coast. It’s pretty much gone at this point.

Haha that line was 100% frustration from looking at my seasonal snow total this morning. It is regression and I do agree that in general winter produces most here looking at the longer arc of time. Doesn’t change the pain of losing nearly a decade to some historically bad winters. That’s time you don’t get back.

I know that’s true…but my production the last decade makes it harder than ever to discern. I checked this morning and I have more sub 20” seasons than I do 30” seasons since 2018-19, and my average is 45-50”. I certainly have more failed epic winter patterns than failed fantasy canes. It’s exceptionally tough sledding for anything interesting lately. Tropical stuff aside I think most of us are frustrated by that. I have my annual peak season forecast due by the 20th, and I’m still not sure what direction I’ll take. I do think we’re looking at another backloaded season though given the continued SAL/stability issues I knew we’d have months ago. If September is warm with a WAR, we’re in the game. Otherwise, cutoff trough season in October and hybrids are probably our only shot at anything interesting.

Solar is awesome. Barely a bill year round.

Foggy start here in the valley

Why pick a thread when there’s a whole page

New England weenies talk crazy in the tropical thread every year