WxWatcher007

Let’s try to take a more comprehensive look at Milton this morning. Overnight, Milton completed an Eyewall Replacement Cycle in which the winds came down from their exceptional peak and the pressure rose from a staggering 897mb to 924mb. This morning’s recon flight has the latest VDM showing 932mb, though indications are this is starting to fall again. In my estimation, Milton is starting to reintensify. In the last few frames you can see a warmer and more defined eye, and until shear picks up, I think the only thing slowing this down over the coming hours will be if another ERC attempt begins. The VDM also had the new eye at 12nm, so the intensification rate could be substantial today. Milton is gaining latitude and as frustrating as it may be, we are not at a place yet to know the final landfall location, which matters immensely for coastal communities. But first, I want to talk other impacts. Wind The radius of maximum winds is still pretty small. Hurricane force winds only extend out 30 miles per the 5am advisory. This may help Milton try to reach a second peak today, but every expectation is that as this gains latitude and makes its final approach the wind field will grow substantially. As a result, in addition to higher wind speeds due to a major hurricane landfall, hurricane force gusts are likely across the peninsula in the path of the storm, hence the hurricane watches and warnings. Given the metropolitan areas in the path, damaging winds will likely cause widespread damage—you don’t need cat 4 winds for that. At the landfall point at the coast, it’ll just make things worse. HAFS-A shows the expansion of the wind field in a way that makes sense to me. IMO as we saw with Helene it’s far worse to have lower peak winds reach a larger section inland than extremely high winds only reach a narrow section of coast. Now Pre-landfall Aerial Flooding I’ve been talking about this since the beginning and I’ll keep doing so. We can’t underestimate the aerial flood risk. Now we have a High Risk for excessive rainfall for much of central Florida, extending into Orlando. This kind of flooding gets underestimated and kills as a result in many storms. Inland folks need to understand this risk and be prepared to take action if they are in a low lying area. Edited to add more detailed version of above graphic Surge The surge potential is likely already guaranteed to be met somewhere. Unfortunately, Milton’s intensity, growing size, and heading will bring Major to catastrophic surge to some portion of the west coast of Florida. Given the still fresh damage of Helene, the structural damage could be even more profound. Even on the east coast there will be surge, but the main focus is rightfully on the west coast. This, is where track matters so much. It’s extremely important to not get locked into one solution or even model suite trend yet. If you’re in the potential path prepare as if the worst is coming to you. The 00z super ensemble shows us that a lot of real estate is still at risk of the direct hit. This will likely shift only slightly, but enough to make a huge difference for places like Tampa, Sarasota, and Ft. Meyers. I not only think we’re still searching for that final landfall point, we also have to be abundantly clear eyed about the fact that given the angle of approach, wobbles—which are common features near landfall—can dramatically change where the worst surge ends up. Folks I cannot make it more clear—you can have a spot on NHC forecast that’s still off by 10-25 miles. Nobody should be locking in a landfall point at this range. Timing, which also hasn’t been nailed down to the hour, matters here too for high/low tide. The bottom line is that this is a multi-hazard dangerous storm, even inland. I think we see a run at another peak today before shear and another ERC fully disrupt the intense inner core. I do think that we see weakening before landfall, but with an expanded wind field and Milton coming off a high peak, a landfall intensity of 125-135mph remains a reasonable possibility. We don’t know yet where the landfall point will be, and honestly, I don’t think we’ll truly know that until a few hours before landfall. To anyone in the path that’s still on the fence about the seriousness of this one—get off of it. This is as serious as it gets. Hope this long post helps some.

The VDM at 3:29z reported concentric closed eyewalls at 6 and 22nm diameter respectively. 2°C difference. The latest VDM (4:32z) now reports only one closed eyewall at 16nm with an 8°C temperature difference. 927mb.

Wow!

Given how high end it is structurally and the contracting inner eye, I wonder if we see a smoother merger of the concentric eyes rather than a major disruption. I’d place a bet on that right now which could make tomorrow even more likely to be the peak than tonight.

With a 4nm wide eye.

Wait a minute, there’s no way with an eye that’s at best been 10nm miles wide today lol

Recon is descending now. Should start getting data shortly.

180mph/905mb

I know what you mean. I’m guessing they will raise intensity slightly at 5 a sent recon, and then we’ll see what’s going on under the hood when this latest plane gets there.

They’re certainly doing the best they can. They’re weenies as much as we are. But they have limited crews, planes, and procedural schedules to live by—probably some of it for safety reasons.

Yeah, this is about as structurally sound as it gets. Hopefully the recon will get back in there soon to continue documenting it, but unless there’s a messy ERC the HAFS-B might be right in the structural changes in the next 24-30 hours.

Models continue to develop a modest low. Do you think it’ll have enough to become fully tropical?

Never a doubt

Absolutely extraordinary.

@GaWx now have a lemon on the FL east coast. That one has a good chance to get a name if it can stay tropical. Everything spinning is becoming a TC in the basin right now.

There are only a handful of Atlantic systems with this kind of evolution. This is the second fastest hurricane to go from C1 to C5. Only behind Wilma.

Zero doubt in my mind that it’s continuing to intensify. Whether the next recon flight confirms that…idk. This is remarkable.

This will be the storm of record for Tampa.

An all timer of a VDM. 912mb 158kt FL wind peak Severe turbulence in the NW & NE eyewall 11°C temperature difference in eyewall Flocks of birds observed in the eye

They did a phenomenal job getting so many passes in.

Reminder that SFMR are not being used operationally by the NHC for the rest of the season.

Given the warming of the eye, the pinhole nature, and recon data, this is continuing to rapidly intensify. With no end in sight yet. Extraordinary.

I thought I was being reasonable last night with a peak of 160/919. We’re going to blow well past that.