WxWatcher007

Hope everything works out for them.

If anything the rainfall threat around the northern part of the peninsula will be increasing as Milton traverses the region and continues through its extra tropical evolution—as @CoastalWx said earlier. Edit: adding WPC discussion https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=1100&yr=2024

Yes, still quite impactful along much of the west coast of Florida. Sending my best to everyone in the region tonight.

Definitely.

As bad as the inland tornado outbreak has been, I'm afraid the surge is still going to be the biggest disaster with Milton. Most of us knew the timing of landfall would coincide with a degraded core and transition, but the sea heights aren't just going to magically disappear. Sea height and fetch has already been acquired, and areas south of the circulation will be inundated. We don't need a thick/intense southern eyewall band either. Strong surface winds perpendicular to the peninsula shoreline will be aided by the low-level jet to push the fetch onshore south of Milton's circulation center. The surge threat is high for a reason regardless of landfall intensity and why evacuations were needed. Yeah…I know. Just wanted to be…hopeful.

I have to say, the tornadoes are going to be memorable for a lot of inland folks. Lets hope the surge doesn’t upstage what’s already a high end outbreak.

I think the landfall point zone has now narrowed between Clearwater and Sarasota, but this northerly tick after the completion of the ERC is why I cautioned against the urge to lock in a spot too soon. Even a quick turn into Sarasota is looking increasingly dicey (read: unlikely). To be clear, I’m only talking landfall point. With the larger eye now much of that zone I highlighted could still get eyewall.

For those looking for water rise information

I think it’s a wobble right now. I’m still waiting to see what happens as the ERC ends. I think the landfall goalposts are now between Sarasota and Clearwater. Crude circles but the point is all the same—if we’re just contracting so the inner eyewall is dominant, a further ENE motion seems likely to me. If the inner eyewall collapses into the larger outer eyewall/curved band, that broadens impacts and makes it more likely Tampa north gets into the eyewall. It’s still an extremely close call. It’s also still moving quickly. It’s unclear when the slowdown and turn will occur.

Maybe that 51 number was for newly identified couplets and not a continuation of a prior warning? Just wondering where the discrepancy is.

51 total today per TWC

Latest VDM reports 944mb and the following: 1/3 CLOSED INNER EYEWALL BAND 14NM DIAM, 1/3 CLOSED OUTER EYE BAND 26NM DIAM

Currently 2 PDS tornado warnings in central FL. What a tornado day.

It stops short of the present frame, which still shows the inner eyewall trying to hang on.

Someone asked so let’s take a look at radar. Three things stand out to me: 1) There’s a legitimate tornado outbreak that’s ongoing across the peninsula. Some of these have had very strong couplets. This will continue so even inland folks need to be vigilant. 2) The ERC at least on radar looks nearly complete. As you can see that’s leading to a much larger core. That’s important for who gets the eyewall and perhaps intensity heading into final approach. 3) The landfall zone is narrowing on the models but more importantly narrowing on radar. Do not let your guard down slightly north of Tampa or slightly south of Sarasota. As the landfall zone narrows, it’s still critical to pay attention to long term motion, but every wobble becomes increasingly important. Watch to see if the heading slightly shows its cards after the ERC completes.

I would definitely not let my guard down north of Tampa. I think the center coming in like 30 miles north of Tampa is unlikely, but Tampa is still squarely at risk of a direct landfall. The zone is narrowing, and that makes every single wobble increasingly important.

Reports of damage in and around Fort Myers per TWC related to the tornadoes.

Some serious circulations. Paging @weatherwiz

As @olafminesawnoted earlier, this is a much larger eye and potentially getting larger. Factor that in as you’re tracking the center’s final approach. Numerous tornado warnings including a PDS warning. Flash flood warnings east of Gainesville. Conditions are clearly deteriorating along the west coast of Florida as well and flash flood and tornado warnings will likely increase as that big band continues scraping the region.

The latest VDM from about 40 minutes ago had the eye of Milton now at 32nm.

I have family a little further north in Spring Hill and watching some areas around Tampa for a friend with family there. Obviously no met but if I can be helpful just tag me in here and I’ll answer if I can. Good luck.

Where are you located?

The NHC does a tremendous job. After Francine’s eastward shift toward New Orleans late and Helene’s eastward shift toward Perry late I think it’s good that they are even more explicit in stating that a forecast can still have narrow in the whole scheme of things but tremendous uncertainty on final landfall point this late. No, it’ll almost certainly be the surge. It’s almost always the most devastating part of a hurricane of this magnitude. Tornadoes are serious, but just the prelude to the worst unfortunately.

145mph/931mb at 11.

Good luck.