WxWatcher007

Yeah, zero concern in the long range from me right now. As we saw with Erin, these long range model runs aren’t good for much..

This is about as clear a recurve pattern as you can get for the US east coast. Has been for days and days...

Looks like you're in the same boat as us, but Newfoundland is still close.

Finally found a way to make a loop of SAL

There is a pretty good signal on the GEFS and EPS that the following wave will have a chance to develop in the central Atlantic, and a more modest signal that the wave train is probably going to be active for the next week or so--aided by the MJO and passage of the CCKW. Dry air and stability will remain hurdles waves need to overcome, but as we see each year, often times the lead wave (failed 96L or whatever it was) opens the door for the next one. It's unclear how much SAL will get back into the pathway, but look at how Erin cleared the way.

Except Fiona! What a great chase that was.

I don't think people realize how hard it is to get true CVs this way. Not just here in New England, but the entire U.S. coastline. I went back the other day and ran some numbers. Since the start of our exceptionally busy period of Atlantic activity in 2017, there have been 157 named storms in the basin. Only 19, or 12% of those systems, have been CVs--which I defined as developing within about 5 degrees of the Cabo Verde Islands. Of those 19 CVs, only 3 (16%) have impacted land. Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Larry in 2021. Now, to the point that some have made, Florence and Larry were infamously locks to go OTS before they weren't, but statistically that's rare. CVs that made landfall accounts for just 1.9% of all the storms that developed in the 2017-25 period. It takes an extraordinary set of circumstances for CVs to hit the US.

I haven’t weighed in on the great debate and I love summer, but the dog days are over and the step down is here. Still summer…but you know what’s coming next.

Man I haven’t seen that style loop in ages

That’s awesome

My .03 backyard tells the Euro to go to hell in winter and summah.

I know I'm not the only one that wants this place to continue being what it has been (for the most part)--a place for analysis and sharing information & passion for tropical meteorology.

Me yesterday.

Still squarely a threat to Newfoundland.

New invest in the Gulf, with time as a limiting factor.

Don’t worry the trough will be there whenever tropical reaches the SW Atlantic.

I did! .03”

.01" at home

Long shot but yeah, still worth watching. The UL pattern over Canada is critical to how close this gets. Note how much less aggressive the trough is in SE Canada. That has a ripple effect across the steering pattern players. 00z 12z

Well, it's still an outlier. For a closer approach you absolutely need the big ULL in Canada to back off. I don't think that's impossible. The cutoff in the GL region is a whole different level of complexity however imo. This still looks like a very very low chance for us, with meaningful risk in NF. I guess it's still worth a casual eye lol. Yeah...I'm not sure how that'll play out over time.

I can’t. I just can’t.

I'm just chewing on that run. I want to see some ensemble support. That said, you can see how quickly things go from well OTS (Newfoundland exception) to a very close approach with changes in the pattern over the US and Canada. The big ULL doesn't drop down as aggressively, the retrograding ridge over the US kind of meanders, and that allows the Atlantic ridge to push the door a little more. 00z 12z Now of course, because there's no cutoff in the GL region this eventually gets kicked, but that was modestly intriguing. SHIPS does foresee a better environment further west, and the organization of Erin is pretty good for its current intensity. I think it could really pop once it's able to get enough of a convective burst to get the engine going. That said, convection continues to fire on the southern side of the storm and the track continues to come in ever so slightly south of forecast. I still think a NE impact is fantasy land, but the door for a closer approach is not fully closed. Honestly, and this is also forever out, Erin could be good for a PRE somewhere depending on how that trough eventually evolves. Just food for thought. Also, this looks like a possible threat to Newfoundland. Been saying that for days now lol.

91.1 at home along with dews…

It would require a dramatic shift for this to threaten the US east coast. It’s pretty much gone at this point.