WxWatcher007

Just did a quick look up of yellow jackets and I had no idea their hive can have thousands in it. I'm always extra careful doing yard work. No problems yet (knocks wood).

Can confirm that despite it being 73° it’s still plenty hot in direct sun. Also—WTTTE on that coastal. We boring for the foreseeable.

What's the link to that again? There's been a strong ensemble (EPS) signal for some type of low to develop off the coast this weekend. I have zero interest right now given the possibility that this just trends to some strung out mess that gets ejected OTS, but if there were a way to get some tropical or hybrid up this way (or at least rain), this could work. We meh for now.

I don’t see anything possible other than homebrew/hybrid off the east coast in the next week or so.

It’s only one case @weatherwiz but you might find this interesting

Truly spectacular late summer evening

Which is why I’m glad I didn’t go with a major EC hit, though I was tempted.

I think it's a fairly easy call for above average overall. For me, the Caribbean and SW Atlantic are the places to be though the Gulf will get theirs. Well this invest survived longer than any of the models expected, but the graveyard got it.

I can see where the numbers come from, but I'm guessing that with an active back half of September that projection will change. I don't see sub 140 ACE, but I also don't think we're rocketing toward hyperactive ACE either. I'd probably lean around 150. Kind of agree on the 3+ H strikes, considering that I think this is an EC, not Gulf favored year. That in it of itself suggests fewer than 3 strikes. With us being where we are and my peak season forecast at 10/6/3, I'm thinking we're probably around 15/7/4 to end the season. All I care about is my peak season forecast though.

I'll also add that these landfalls you mention also highlight just how difficult it is to get an east coast hurricane strike. Much like New England, but obviously to a lesser degree, it takes a statistically unlikely alignment of steering forces to bring a major hurricane to the EC, even with homebrew nearby.

Thanks for the question. I think it's too specific to look at a place like FL vs the Carolina coast. Part of the analysis is pretty basic. The more active a season is the more likely there is a landfall generally, just because more storms equal more opportunities. In my analysis though, it goes a little beyond that. First, look at the thermodynamic environment in the genesis and "final track" (locations that a TC would need to cross to make landfall) areas. In spite of Erin's impressive wake, there is still an enormous amount of untapped potential in the Gulf, Caribbean, and in the southwest Atlantic. Second, I think the ENSO and wet Sahel analysis is compelling. I think the wet Sahel in particular is interesting because track density is consistent with what looks like a hostile tropical Atlantic that suppresses waves until you approach the Antilles and SW Atlantic. I also think that the anomalous troughing that we're seeing now in the east, while certainly a pattern for recurves, would quickly become a pattern for pulling Caribbean or SW Atlantic homebrew systems north if you look at it, especially if that pattern retrogrades as we head deeper into September (where I doubt we produce consecutive negative departure months in the eastern part of the country. I also think climatology plays a role here. @GaWx had a very interesting post looking at east coast landfalls later in the peak season. Storm genesis location matters here, and I am thinking with a slightly less robust wave train from past years, we see vigorous, but weaker waves that can get further west into the Caribbean or SW Atlantic. This could have implications for the eastern Gulf, but I do think troughing will be more of a feature that would lead to earlier turns than the western Caribbean unless something obviously develops there. I do think homebrew is the most likely way the east coast sees a hurricane strike. I actually think it probably means less of a chance, unless there is meaningful activity in the eastern Gulf (which has also been a hot spot of late so that can't be ruled out).

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 10 (1) Hurricanes: 6 (0) Major Hurricanes: 3 (0) Fernand

A month from now I think we’ll be cooking in a big way. This is another heavy backloaded season imo. Hard to beat the stability and SAL issues that have been persistent across the tropical Atlantic this decade.

Dead. Will be for foreseeable. Embrace it.

We welcome September with open arms.

I did not have that happen to me. That must’ve been quite an experience.

I just remember my cup of water shaking like it was Jurassic Park.

It’ll be a nice and warm fall and I’m sure we’ll have some hot days in there, but we’ve stepped down. It’s undeniable.

We march toward fall.

With maybe a short fuse non (or sub) tropical critter for @Hazeyearly next week. Beneficial rains at least.

Early fall

That’s why we yawn at CVs

1.74” here

1.45” here in E.Hartford. Triple my monthly total just about.