WxWatcher007

Really incredible turn of events.

Very good job by the GFS imo.

It’s a pretty incredible miss all around imo. This looked like at TC last night imo. Satellite derived winds may have had trouble seeing the small circulation.

Oscar in the brink of becoming a hurricane

2/3 of my highlighted areas on Oct 10 ain’t too shabby. NHC completely whiffed on Oscar. Damn near has an eyewall this morning. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (10) Hurricanes: 10 (6) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H), Milton (MH), Nadine, Oscar

Amazing

Took a long time, but that western Caribbean area produced. Big win for the GFS. The other invest that started in the eastern Atlantic is looking good too. Might get another short lived one before the forecast period ends. Interesting that my NS/H/MH proportions are spot on. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (9) Hurricanes: 10 (6) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H), Milton (MH), Nadine

I need an ASCAT lol. This isn’t a TC?

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 The disturbance currently located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea has continued to increase in organization today, with persistent showers and thunderstorms occurring around a broad low-level circulation. Buoys and satellite-derived surface wind measurements indicate that the system has not yet become a tropical cyclone. However, it is becoming more likely that the system could become a tropical cyclone in the next day or so before it reaches the coast of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. Therefore, the disturbance is being designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, with an initial intensity of 30 kt, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The center location remains uncertain due to the broad size of the circulation, and the initial estimate of the current motion is 300/6 kt. Steered by mid-level easterly flow, the system is expected to turn westward tonight and reach the coast of Central America on Saturday. Thereafter, it is expected to move inland before dissipating on Sunday. The NHC forecast is close to the simple and corrected consensus models. Conditions are generally favorable for modest intensification, with light vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. However, the disturbance has less than one day before it moves inland. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and the official forecast indicates that the disturbance will reach low-end tropical storm status prior to landfall and then weaken before dissipating on Sunday. Key Messages: 1. An area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is expected to bring impacts from heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next day or two. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen as it treks westward through southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning tonight through Saturday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 17.5N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/0600Z 17.5N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 17.3N 88.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 20/0600Z 17.2N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

Western Caribbean Sea (AL95): Widespread showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized today across the northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low pressure that is gradually becoming better defined to the north of eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over Central America on Saturday. Interests in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings may be required later today. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Low of 31.0°

That would be a genesis win for the model, considering how everyone wrote off the signal it’s had for quite a while now.

Not quite time to shut down, but we’re almost there.

Across the river I hit a low of 30.3°. We freeze.

Done, thanks. 94L is still plodding along but the model signal has cratered. With my peak season forecast period coming to a close in a few days I’m starting to get into non-tropical mode…

Makes sense with the MJO change. May have a last hurrah in early November but climo is rapidly moving away from tropical at this point.

33.5° here in EH is not bad at all.

NHC finally has a lemon on the area in the western Caribbean

Yeah—Cabo Verde (formerly known as Cape Verde) system. It’s very late for these kind of long track systems, though technically nothing has developed yet.

Islands need to watch but yeah, extremely difficult to have a CONUS CV this time of year.

Starting a thread because this is an invest and could have longer term potential. Originally, the signal for this tropical wave was quick development off the African coast before turning northwest in the open Atlantic. Development didn’t quite happen near the CV Islands, but under a sprawling Atlantic ridge the models now take this robust wave west where it may find a more favorable environment in the western Atlantic or Caribbean. It’s unusual to have this kind of wave in mid October but here we are. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited with a well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is currently embedded in an unfavorable environment and development is not anticipated over the next couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward to west-southwestward, and environmental conditions could become more favorable for additional development by the mid to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands by the end of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Papin/Konarik

Low of 35.2°. Had a low of 36° a few days ago.

Thanks. It does look like the eastern MDR is starting to close up shop on quick TCG now that climo shifts to the western part of the basin. That probably is one to watch a little closer now.

Maybe the fortunes on 94L are changing? This could be one that comes across the Atlantic.