WxWatcher007

That is truly horrifying.

That I do like to see.

How many times have we heard that in recent years…

First flakes in January more fitting with 2020s climo?

Thanks. WXW1 is East Hartford, CT WXW2 is Saranac Lake, NY

Good point lol Well I think we all agree—let’s get another HECS in the hoppah this winter.

This. Our non-elevation snow rates/accumulation are second to the LES belts, and I wouldn’t trade that for a 5-10” Midwest blizzard with 70mph winds, even though I love wind. But high end to me is the HECS territory. We had a great stretch last decade, but region wide historic has happened less than a handful of times?

Yeah and again…don’t want to make too much of it right now, but even that coastal in October was a pretty meh dual low mess. I get why people are cautiously optimistic about winter but the raging PAC jet interfering in the development of proper coastal and placement of important features is something to watch, I think. I’m being a little colorful, because we can do various types of high end wx, but the return time and regional scale vary.

I still think this’ll be a fine event as 45-55mph inland is still quite solid, but high end is high end for a reason and we don’t really do high end in anything in SNE to begin with. San Diego east.

We out. We’ll be windy, but nothing high end here. Also don’t want to read too much into it…but virtually every storm during this active period has been a cutter or coastal hugger…

Yeah, then we'd really be talking about Kevin's grid collapse.

As you note, @weatherwiz, this is a different setup than our usual modeled wind events that fail. I'm very impressed by the level of mixing that's showing up across guidance, and obviously, a NW flow event is a far more common way for us to get big wind across the interior than relying on southerly flow. I could absolutely see max gusts late tomorrow/early Thursday ranging in the 50-65mph range depending on location. The saving grace for damage is that we are past peak with a lot of leaf drop. 06z Euro 12z GFS

Like what I’m seeing on the models for tomorrow/Thursday am, though SLK may not have enough elevation.

Far more interested in this than I was for the Halloween breezes.

I don’t think we had any here but I wasn’t looking closely. Had an instantaneous rain rate of 6.13”/hr.

Groton taking the crown of coldest coastal spot in CT so far this fall.

38.5 at WXW1—41 at HFD 29.3 at WXW2—25 at SLK

In CT for now. We just have to get on the board however we can. I don’t want to hear people wanting to trade a minor/moderate short range opportunity for some fantasy big dog. The 2020s have shown how we can lose both. And to be fair, we’ve been fairly active tropical wise—it just hasn’t been high end. Isaias, Henri, and some weaker ones in there. Say nothing of Atlantic Canada cooking and our Oct 2021 Cape “cane”.

I wouldn’t put any stock in verbatim storm depictions (I know you know this), but it does look like the pattern lends itself to a few cold shots that could bring first flakes as more nuisance/novelty stuff.

Yeah first third of November doesn’t look that warm to me. In fact, I think we have a good chance for first measurable (.1”) away from the coast.

Low of 29.5° at WXW1

I leave a good amount behind. Some of that is by choice—it’s been great for summertime biodiversity in my backyard. I mulch as much as I can but full leaves work too if I put them near my tree line. Some of that is because the trees drop at different times and I don’t have the time or will to get back there several times in November. It’s beautiful in October, but a pain in November.

How good is the cyclone rake? Every year I say I’m going to get something to deal with these leaves and I don’t.

We take. I think.