WxWatcher007

What happened?

It’s not missing south lol

I think we want that though. It'd be a red flag if the high res weren't picking up on a strong system. I'm really interested in seeing the rain signal. The overnight models painted a nasty zone of sig rain. GFS wanted to paint SW CT as ground zero for flood potential again.

Anyway, back to wx. Our area of interest is still strung out. It's going to take a while to consolidate but when it does this loop is going to be very interesting to look at.

I'm always fascinated when we hop down this societal rabbit hole. Can't two things be true? Some of the things we do have come to reflect an overly cautious nature. But some of the things we do also aren't the smartest. You can't cancel school on every windy day, sure. But you also can't tell the parents burying their baby oh well, it was just an act of God when you lost their child on your watch. I don't care about your politics, age, or upbringing--nobody is going to want to hear that. Especially if forecasts explicitly said a storm was coming.

I’d appreciate, rather my peak season forecast would appreciate, another run at hurricane status

Robust but south. Gotta imagine the Euro and GFS meet in the middle as they usually do.

Maybe it’s getting a clue, but there’s still a ways to go before we have our well formed low. At the moment it’s still a highly strung out weak low attached to a frontal boundary.

FWIW, the GFS is slightly stronger and further west.

1041 is very impressive.

I agree. That's why I think it's important to let the science do the speaking. I'm no met obviously, but I still think it's possible to communicate meteorology in a way that doesn't add all the extra nonsense that pushes people from being effectively informed in the first place. But I think the lack of any mention by the NHC is a pretty significant tell at this stage. Maybe we get some late acknowledgement from them as the system is developing, but I'm not counting on it. Back to the system...even though it's shallow, if anything the GFS and Euro are more aligned on this being warm core than they were a few days ago. We don't get these often, and I'd argue that it's not insignificant if we see this really consolidate as it's crossing the Gulf Stream and organizing on Friday. If this takes longer to pull together it's weaker and more strung out and more mundane...but we don't see this signal often.

Polo is back in a big way. Not often we see a hurricane lose C5 status and come back like this.

I've been a longtime defender of NHC decisions on most of their designations, but in recent years (perhaps since Sandy?) I think they've been a little slower or hesitant when it comes to designating anything north of the Carolinas when it's not a slam dunk case. I provided a couple of examples a day or two ago. I can't say for sure, and I definitely do not make this statement to challenge the integrity of the great people working there, but I've seen public facing organizations generally hold a more conservative approach when it comes to making calls that could minimize credibility. We see here in this thread people that follow wx closely minimizing this, and the general public for better or worse will fall into the camp of this is the most dangerous thing ever or it's really no big deal. The NHC is in a lose-lose in public perception. Even a TWO mention ramps up the hype machine and everything that comes with it, and if it falls short of expectations in either direction people may be less likely to care about what the NHC says in the future. Hopefully I'm wrong, but its harder for the meteorology to stand alone in this era of social media and hype. Just look at the clowns posing the Sandy 2.0 stuff on Twitter and people sharing 925mb wind plots like we're a few thousand feet higher up. There's a lot of social science and understanding the psychology of the general public that needs to be considered to get people to act appropriately. It is what it is.

…hey so about that 18z euroooo… I’ll come back later, friends…

It was fun while it lasted. This was a great summer.

Fay is officially back from the dead. Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026 Convection has redeveloped around the center of Fay and has persisted during the day. An earlier ASCAT pass indicated that the system still had a well-defined circulation. Therefore, Fay meets the criteria to be classified as a tropical cyclone again. The earlier ASCAT pass showed a maximum wind vector of around 31 kt and the most recent TAFB Dvorak classification was at T1.5/25 kt. Based on the given data, Fay's intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The cyclone is moving just a little south of due west, or around 260/8 kt, as it moves to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge to the northwest. Fay is expected to continue on this general motion for the next several days. The current NHC track forecast is in line with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. There is a brief opportunity for Fay to regain tropical storm status during the next day or so, however wind shear is expected to increase again after 36 h. This should lead to the cyclone gradually weakening again, with the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 60 h, and then dissipating around 96 h, as suggested by simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF global model. The current NHC intensity forecast track is in line with both the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 30.1N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 29.9N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 29.9N 41.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 29.9N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 29.5N 44.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch

Went down the rabbit hole and found December 1989 and December 2015. Holy crap.

Nothing wrong at all with a reprieve. 16-24 was brutal for the continental U.S. and this year has been bad for Hawaii.

Nobody knows how to have fun around here.

I completely forgot about the ice storm. All I knew then was tropical. We average somewhere between 100-125 at SLK so being above that is interesting. For 2015-16 winter was a disaster.

GDM really hasn’t budged much through all of the model flip flops. I think we have a good sense that this is going to be close to the coast, but intensity is still up in the air.

How was that winter in NNE?

It’s coming

I need hurricanes at this point. Just one or two, but preferably three.

Don’t worry. In a just a few short months we’ll be sitting in 40pg threads tracking a 1-3” clipper.