I totally get the angst with...you know, North Carolina having measurable snow and much of the subforum failing in the early December chance, but this stuff is a little short sighted, even for me who reminder: canceled winter early January last year and that was still too optimistic lol.
We really want to cash in on the pattern before whatever relaxation, I've said it's imperative. But even if we didn't if we got some random clipper to drop an inch or two on Dec 24 most would be happy and turn the page to tracking for 2026. You can only rely on it so much, but not having an absolute blowtorch or well defined Grinch showing up at range is a good thing. A really good thing.
By Christmas Day, BDL's monthly and seasonal normal are 7.6"/9.7" respectively. At BDR they are 4.0"/5.0". We should hope for climo, and I think it can be done, as much of a torpedo pattern this is.
I loathe the fast flow overall for SNE, but I'd rather have that with plenty of opportunities for something than tracking one shortwave every 10 days.