WxWatcher007

Center sonde has a 954mb reading with 6kt wind so despite the satellite appearance, it hasn’t translated into strength in a substantial way yet. Obviously still need to see the SW and NE quadrants.

Not impossible given the dropsonde just before landfall, but there’s going to be an extensive review of all the data and observations to determine the final intensity of this one. This may very well be the strongest Atlantic hurricane in recorded history.

Thanks. Maybe it’s a mid level feature working its way down. That radar and the rapidly improving IR would suggest that Melissa is reorganizing rapidly. Will take a bit to intensify imo, and nothing meaningful will happen intensity wise if the eyewall isn’t fully closed.

Very interesting and conflicting data. This was from the VDM. Very quick recon trip. Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SLP EXTRAP FROM 12000 FT PA NO EYE EVIDENT ON RADAR

The satellite improvement happened FAST

I have a non-chaser friend in Montego Bay. Right near the water. They are safe, but the first floor of their place was wrecked by the wind.

The collapse of FL winds and the central pressure rising 60mb says it all. At least for now. The 5pm discussion mentions that the intensity estimate was “highly uncertain”. I doubt the winds are that high looking at that first round of data but recon is finding it just as it exits Jamaica. IR is already improving so we’ll see what it can do the next ~8 hours. The core looks intact enough for a reorganization & intensification phase.

Recon is in there (only one flight from what I see) and it looks like the center weakened substantially based on initial data. 952.8mb extrapolated.

Landfall expected around 2am. Not a ton of time to reorganize and intensify, but we’ll see what recon finds.

The next recon flight is in the air and will be able to sample Melissa a bit after it emerges from land.

The center is starting to or will imminently emerge back over the Caribbean. Clearly, the trek over Jamaica has disrupted the structure. I'll note however that there is still very strong outflow evident in all quadrants, deep convection surrounding the center, and relatively low wind shear. The radar that @klw is useful to an extent in showing the degradation of the inner core but given the factors I just mentioned we should watch what happens in the coming hours as this fully emerges and has time to potentially reorganize.

Ah, I was referring to radar for low level structure. It’s really hard getting regional radars.

Can you post? I can’t get the regional radars to work.

C4 now

Looks like the center is near the coast now, so we’re going to find out soon just how intact that core still is.

Live cam of Montego Bay looks even more ferocious now.

The live feed looks fierce right now.

As we are all rightfully concerned with the impact on Jamaica right now, I also want to take a moment to discuss the environment after Melissa leaves Jamaica. What happens next is highly dependent on structure--how much the mountainous terrain disrupt Melissa's inner core. Melissa has an very small core. On one hand, that increases the odds that over the coming hours the center is significantly disrupted, reducing the risk of reintensification over water. On the other, such an intense inner core is inertially stable, making it possible that if a strong enough core emerges from the coast, it is able to take advantage of the environment, if favorable enough. The key is shear, and Melissa is straddling the line (and has been lately) between favorable and more modest deep layer shear. Looking at the environment however, shear may not be as much of an issue until Melissa crosses Cuba. In fact, the shear has been subtly declining ahead of its path. The extraordinarily favorable thermal environment that helped Melissa become an upper echelon C5 isn't quite as favorable after Jamaica, but it seems to be plenty if Melissa has the time and space to reorganize. Finally, the diurnal cycle that has helped Melissa may prove favorable once again as the storm approaches Cuba later tonight. Just something to keep in mind. All dependent on how much the core is disrupted today. (Edit: and what the actual shear profile is later)

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 100 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL IN JAMAICA... ...ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE LANDFALLS ON RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN... Melissa has made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope with estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb (26.34 inches). THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! Do not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will quickly, and rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents should remain in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions. To protect yourself from wind, the best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a helmet for added protection. The next position update will be provided with the intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC). SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 78.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly

Yep. I believe I was in one during Idalia. There was a dramatic increase and sudden shift in wind.

Would've been right on. Truly unbelievable to witness a landfall at the intensity and pressure...and to know that Wilma was 10mb deeper. Insane.