WxWatcher007

Clown maps aside, it’s a beautiful storm and pattern evolution. It’s nice to go into met winter with some legitimate (favorable pattern) hope.

I’m not sure what the source was for yesterday’s fire, but I was told we had three others. Two were people open burning in their backyard. One guy threw his cigarette into a bush and the whole thing went up almost immediately—in front of one of our fire stations. Crazy stuff

Mannnn we need this rain to produce. All hell almost broke loose in the neighborhood.

I have 12/1/19 and 12/16/20 in my records. Both were warning events and 12/16 is one of only two 12”+ storms since winter 2018-19 here.

Wiz says the blues are really reds. The lines are inverted. Torch coming.

Let’s get a storm like this during winter. 1mb every ten minutes lol. What a beaut.

It has been insane. I actually checked my VP2 to make sure the system was working properly. I haven’t needed to mow in a very long time, and leaf pickup has been the easiest it’ll probably ever get.

Our friend will ride historic drought persistence until he’s wading through waist deep water in his basement.

It has been a truly horrific stretch since I came back in 2018. Without the Feb miracle I would’ve been below a foot of snowfall on the season. Worst season yet. It’s time for something better…I hope…

And I do hope that completely unexpected wrench in tropical season also means that we get a positive wrench for our winter. The last half decade plus has been miserable. We need a break from rains to Maine.

I did too, but it ended up a quality over quantity season. The SFMR thing was just weird. I wonder if they decided that after missing that Ian was a 5 right before landfall.

Atlantic. We can’t compete with the WPAC. They are at 186 ACE this season but average 273. That’s nuts.

there’s been a lot of that in recent years across wx types. In all seriousness, I think the tropical season reached ~80% of potential. That historically dead period peak season was insane but I think the late September run through now has been equally anomalous. Anytime anyone says the GOAT (insert storm or season) is coming, run the other way. I did think a top ten type season of H and MH was coming and while it took until November, I think that turned out to be right.

Top 10 in hurricanes. Top 20 in MH (tied with several 5 MH seasons). Just outside top 20 in ACE (it’s right outside of hyperactive right now). Earliest cat 5 on record. Strongest Gulf hurricane in since Rita. First sub 900mb hurricane since Wilma. In October. After a historically dead period late August - mid September, the most active period on record since. 1 off tying the record for most CONUS H landfalls in a season. Helene. It’s not 2005, but it has been anything but a fail.

We approve of these crisp days and cold nights.

Still very concerned about flooding in that region should it get buried.

I do think we’re gradually turning the corner, but who knows where that brings us. At least now we see chances of rain on the guidance lol. Would love to see the moisture from future Sara get entrained in the trough next week. We could use a good soaking. Longish shot of that happening though.

And that applies across all facets of life.

He’s not wrong—this has been an all timer of a fall dry period. How many years do you remember dozens of fires going up in November? I have .90” of rain since August 20. It’s incredible. From a few days ago

I called for activity in November way back in August, but this has far exceeded my expectations.

The signals for TC genesis have come to fruition so far this November, and our backloaded season is likely to continue with another Caribbean signal, perhaps a significant one, appearing. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea: An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south of Hispaniola over the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. This system is expected to move slowly westward during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while meandering over the western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Reinhart