WxWatcher007

I’m not so sure the Euro has that right but we’ll see. It’s not the prettiest trough/ridge combo but it’s better than what we have today lol. I can definitely see that wave struggling to consolidate until it gets past 60W.

Posted in the tropical subforum, but HAFS and Euro really moved west at 12z. Whether that's actually true we'll see, but it would likely bring TS gusts to the coast.

From the NHC. I wonder if there are more watches up the coast eventually if the nudges west continue. 4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch may be required later today.

Erin is not going to need to hug the coast in order to bring some impacts. This is going to be a huge wind field, and if Erin is truly poised to continue tracking further west as it has throughout its time being forecasted, strong winds along the coast shouldn't be ruled out. The NHC itself has made it a point in recent discussions. We should also start keeping an eye on what the ensembles do with the follow up wave.

Now there's a lot more nuance to this obviously as we have to see 1) whether the wave develops, 2) where it develops, 3) when it develops, but unlike Erin, for an ensemble 7 days out and not 10+, this is an "in the ballgame" look. EPS is more paltry but that's how the EPS/Euro is--look at the lows buried in the Bahamas. GEFS show something similar. Just as important is the 500mb pattern. Storms in the Bahamas don't matter if you don't have an Atlantic ridge to block and trough to our west to pull it north. Again, this is about 7 days out on the ensembles, so this isn't a fantasy steering pattern scenario. This is Erin at 72h. Everyone by now should know this is NOT a NE tropical pattern. Not even close with that depiction in Canada. Now look at the pattern in about a week as this possible wave approaches the Bahamas. Still work to do with the trough, but it's night and day with a ridge building in the maritimes. Verbatim that's not a lock for us, but what is at this range. The players on the table however show that this one is worth a closer eye.

Erin is in the 80th percentile of MH in size and it'll continue to grow the wind field, so I could def see TS force winds on the OBX and maybe in a place like Nantucket. It's indisputable that the track has been too far east/north throughout Erin's lifecycle. As for the follow up wave, absolutely worth a watch. Casual for now, but the signal is there for another close approach. I don't think Erin is out in time to build a ridge that forces this into the Gulf...unless this develops further south. It looks like it's going to be near "ideal" for where I'd want to see a TC develop.

I'm the leader now. .12 in that shower. A tropical .48 for the month so far.

One of the reasons I like the SW Atlantic as a hot spot is the thermal environment. Erin is likely a blip, especially with it being mid August.

Erin is gone but the follow up wave may be something worth watching. If Erin gets out fast enough we should have the ridge rebuild as a deep trough dives in to our west. And it’s also not a 14 day fantasy deal. Obviously we’re never favored, but it’s a different setup at a more “reasonable” range.

NHC noting the possibility of some impacts 4. Interests along the North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk of strong winds associated with the outer rainbands during the middle part of the week.

CVs are pretty but they’re the 10 at the party that’s too good for everyone.

Hmm… No rain, but the wind field is massive on all guidance. Significant hit for Newfoundland too.

It did that before and snapped right back within one cycle. I think it’s still an outlier until other guidance (GFS) comes along. The only thing that was of modest interest to me though on that run was something I noted days ago. Depending on the timing of the trough there may be a fast moving PRE that sets up somewhere. Again, unless the Euro knows what it’s doing this is all moot. ——— THIS IS A WEENIE PRODUCT FOR INEEDSNOW

Just saw this…might be of interest to some here

Wow

SW Atlantic will be the hot spot this season imo.

Rapid intensification of yore Go to bed with a 1, wake up to a 4.

If it can avoid an ERC. Exceptional pressure falls

Fall can be nice until about December 1

I’ve been sold all year on the SW Atlantic being the seasonal hot spot. Erin was the first real test and we’re seeing how that’s likely to go… This won’t be the last time the east coast is watching a major imo, but waves actually have to get to that part of the basin first.

Yeah, zero concern in the long range from me right now. As we saw with Erin, these long range model runs aren’t good for much..

This is about as clear a recurve pattern as you can get for the US east coast. Has been for days and days...

Looks like you're in the same boat as us, but Newfoundland is still close.

Finally found a way to make a loop of SAL