WxWatcher007

Cold/dry to warm/wet?

It’s good to know that after all these years you are still an absolutely insane human being.

Yeah I actually don’t hate the look. Forget the surface maps.

That’s really helpful, thanks.

Happy to take any snow you’re too good for in this poverty pattern.

Why does the GFS try to hang back so much here? That seems odd to me?

The 1/6 thing seems gone, but the GFS is trying to run a wave from the SE around the 11th. It’s a weird 500mb depiction though.

I mean if we’re being honest in SNE at least, even if we fell short of climo by 10-20% we’d probably take that as a win and have more hope for the next winter.

Maybe? Not to derail the thread but I’m not sure that for most the expectation is historical storm/season or bust. Climo is kind of objective. I average 45-50 a year and I can’t crack 15” without luck. That’s objectively bad. It’s made worse when we get these gorgeous 500mb looks that we exhaustively talk about (which we should—unnecessary pessimism is just as bad as gaslighting optimism) but then bring buffalo a superstorm or fade in time for us to enjoy cutters or some other fail mode. If we had a normal winter, I don’t think anyone reasonable would complain.

I mean I’m not bothered by people talking about what ensembles say at range. They are legitimately useful. But I think there is a little suspension of disbelief or positivity bias that happens in winter when we talk about snow chances specifically. You don’t even see it when we talk about cold and especially not with ice lol. No slight at anyone. We’re basically all here for good snowy winters. Maybe it’s a human nature thing.

I wouldn’t hold my breath for a wintry February either (not saying you necessarily are). I never expected to bat 1.000 here but it seems ominous that this fabled wonderful pattern could very well keep our average of significant region wide events at 0.000. Every year we get these beautiful 500h depictions and play the mental gymnastics to convince ourselves that this time it’ll be different from all the other failures, and it never is. Last month and your near normal snowfall notwithstanding, it’s been all or nothing for years around here and it’s been nothing more often than not, especially from a regional perspective.

I’m not sure there’s any coming back from that.

I’m not bothered by it. It gives hope that someday (voice cracking) my back yard too will know the joy of fresh cold powder.

I’d love to use it on banding from a big dog.

True, but backsliding hurts more too at this stage. I’m cautiously optimistic for light measurable here but we need additional help for sure. Ironically (and I’m just speaking for our yards not anyone else) the last minute trends this season have generally been in our favor…but with each system being fundamentally flawed.

Great stuff in this article, including our own @FXWX https://www.courant.com/2025/01/02/snow-day-or-go-day-how-ct-superintendents-make-the-call-during-inclement-weather/

I honestly believe that a sub 10” snowfall season is possible in SNE as a hypothetical bottom.

Awful is a disaster, bad is a joke, ok is meh, good doesn’t work, perfect is a nightmare.

And finally snow 41° here with flurries flying. Might be the most snow I see all month.

We half kid around here about model dopamine drips, but when you think of how that’s manufactured on social media through likes and other algorithms it’s really incredible. And horrifying.

Yeah. How OJ did it in 14 games is kind of wild (obviously a different game back then of course)

We quiet. We watch.

I started this morning by looking at my tropical chase videos and posts from the season. Sigh.

I need to see this take root on other guidance at 00z. Euro is on an island until then. Would definitely like to see a stronger vort and less confluence combination. Edit: ninja’d by Will

Yeah, I think there’s a low ceiling for any impact, and if anything happens it’s most likely CT-RI-SE MA.