WxWatcher007

I really don’t like this but if there’s a saving grace hopefully we snap back to troughing as we get closer to November.

Shame they couldn't be there during the peak, but it's good to have data.

Yeah Oct 7-20 is critical to my peak season forecast. I'm still thinking things heat up in the western Caribbean and Gulf during that period, and then we are winding down the season by the end of October.

A truly terrible game.

High here of 85.4

Yes

Not much to say right now as Imelda continues to gradually (and slowly) organize. As the NHC notes, with the change in track forecast and further south position, this may end up in a more favorable position relative to the trough and SST/OHC, which could open the door for more intensification once this develops an inner core and pulls away from the coast. I think Imelda has an outside chance at becoming a major in the coming days. SHIPS continues to show meaningful probabilities for RI.

They have certainly earned my respect this season.

High of 85.1 here at WXW1. Average high is 71 lol. This is legitimate summer like wx.

Fits well with my peak season forecast.

The Euro has been just another model for a long time now. Even though this turn was part of the envelope of possibilities, what’s particularly jarring was the Euro/GFS and their ensembles choosing the wrong path together inside 100 hours. That’s noteworthy imo. The AI models seem to have schooled the legacy guidance on this one.

The Euro is just another model. Nowhere near its glory of a decade ago lol. With a well defined center now and slower motion, along with a weaker SE cutoff and stronger Humberto, it’s harder to see that escape route being closed.

Euro pretty much on an island

Sure ain’t something you see everyday

And their ensembles. At relatively short range.

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 27 2025 Humberto remains a large, powerful hurricane this evening, with a spectacular satellite presentation. The hurricane has a clear, 19C, symmetric 25 nm wide eye that is surrounded by a white ring of very, cold (-73C) cloud tops. The most intense deep convection associated with the eyewall appears to be just east of the surface center, where -78C (CMG) tops are discernible. Impressive ventilation aloft is provided by dual outflow channels located over the north semicircle of the cyclone. The latest subjective Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the various UW-CIMSS objective estimates support holding the initial intensity at 140 kt. Humberto could undergo inner core structural changes, which will likely cause intensity fluctuations during the next 12-24 hours. In fact, an earlier GPM/GMI overpass revealed a hint of concentric outer ring development, and the UW-CIMSS MPERC is indicating up to a 78hance of another ERC event. Afterward, the statistical and skilled consensus intensity models point toward a gradual weakening trend beginning around Monday. Through the remaining period, further weakening at a faster pace is expected while the cyclone becomes embedded in the strong upper-level westerly flow. By the 60 hour period, Humberto should continue moving around the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge located to the northeast of the cyclone and east of Bermuda. By Tuesday night, Humberto is forecast to turn north-northeastward while the ridge mentioned above weakens and shifts eastward. By mid-next week, Humberto should turn quickly toward the northeast to east-northeast in response to a major shortwave upper-level trough amplifying and moving out of the Canadian Maritimes and into the northwestern Atlantic waters. There remains quite a bit of along-track spread beyond day 4, which is typically seen when tropical cyclones move within the mid-latitude upper-westerlies and commence a structural transition to an extra-tropical cyclone. The NHC forecast is nudged toward the TVCA simple consensus and the HCCA corrected aid, and is close to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 23.4N 62.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 24.1N 63.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 25.4N 65.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 27.1N 66.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 29.1N 68.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 30.9N 68.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 33.2N 67.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 37.0N 58.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 44.7N 41.4W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts

I don’t think it’s broad looking at the sharper wind shifts on recon, but it is weak—probably because it’s only now starting to tighten up and convection is limited.

Some evening analysis

Although the convection is weak and disorganized, recon is now showing a much more well defined circulation, which if it holds will allow for gradual organization. Note how much tighter the circulation is in the image above, compared to some of the recon images posted earlier. You can also see a pocket of slightly stronger winds on the far eastern side of the system. Below you can see how the circulation is becoming better organized. Slowly. Convection is weak, but there has been some firing of stronger thunderstorms near the center. Shear has remained an issue through the day, but analysis shows that the shear may be abating, especially near the center. TD9 is in one of the best thermal environments in the entire Atlantic, so if it can start generating deep convection over its tightening center it should gradually intensify. While I am posting the SHIPS here, there looks to have been a bit of an uptick from hurricane guidance in overall intensity over the coming days. That's something we'll need to pay attention to, with the caveat that the trough and possible dry air will continue to lurk and will likely put a cap on intensity. Now for the track. There is increasing confidence that future Imelda will in fact turn away from the SE coast, but there is still a lot of uncertainty on how close the center gets to the coast and critically, the speed of the turn. Most guidance now turns the system away from the coast and accelerates it east into an Humberto created weakness. But within this evolving track forecast there are two diverging camps. The first, and most numerous, is one that easily follows Humberto out to sea. The second, which is led by the Euro and Euro AI to an extent, turns the system more slowly and allows a ridge to build over the top and close the escape route. The result is Imelda being turned back toward the coast. There aren't a lot of members that are held back, but the ones that do are pretty strong. So while it very well may be the case that this does turn and accelerate out to sea, there's still uncertainty. Remember, the models struggled with this inside of 100 hours. I'm not sure we should be locking in anything 5+ days out yet. Additional recon and finally having a well defined center should help with both track and intensity guidance. Finally, just because this is likely to stay offshore initially, that doesn't mean no impacts. TS force winds, coastal flooding, and flash flooding are still squarely hazards for coastal FL, GA, and the Carolinas. Just slight track changes could make the flood threat more impactful along the coast.

Humberto C5 Second of the year.

My God. That’s as good as it gets structurally.

About as impressive as you’ll ever see in the Atlantic basin.

You’d be hard pressed to find many Atlantic hurricanes with a better satellite appearance than this. I’d be shocked if this wasn’t a 5 at 5pm.

Yeah there are still some pretty substantial differences even at short(ish) range here. I don’t think there’s any one model that’s definitively right or wrong right now, though it’s obviously much higher confidence at the moment that there will be some kind of eastward turn at the coast.