WxWatcher007

Also, this is an extraordinary satellite image. About as close as you can get. Both in coastal impacts and two TCs interacting with one another.

The wind field is still not particularly organized or strong, but the winds are gradually coming up as the satellite presentation continues to improve. The center is now under a developing CDO, with persistent deep convection we should see the pace of organization pick up over the course of the day. The pressure has continued to fall, with the latest center dropsonde showing a possible pressure below 990mb now. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 13:23ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: ImeldaStorm Number: 09 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 22Observation Number: 10Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 13Z on the 29th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 925mb Coordinates: 26.6N 77.2W Location: 108 statute miles (173 km) to the N (5°) from Nassau, Bahamas. Marsden Square: 080 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -93m (-305 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 990mb (29.24 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 25.5°C (78°F) 135° (from the SE) 20 knots (23 mph) 925mb 596m (1,955 ft) 23.8°C (74.8°F) 23.2°C (74°F) 145° (from the SE) 15 knots (17 mph) 850mb 1,337m (4,386 ft) 21.6°C (70.9°F) 20.3°C (69°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 13:13Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

I think the risk is still there, especially as climo shifts to the Gulf/Western Caribbean.

I hope so. I haven’t done too much thinking about winter yet but it’s less that it’s been dry thus far in my mind and more the background state of warm seasons and worse, that it seems our results are untethered from patterns that normally would be good to great for us. That concerns me. Like @CoastalWx, I’ve totally lost faith after the last decade.

Truly horrific.

The GFS and Euro look like they’ve been trying to catch up with showing more vorticity and maybe a weak low developing, but time and shear may be inhibitors. There’s very clearly spin, but no convection whatsoever. It’s at least lemon worthy imo.

Recon has been in Imelda and although it has not intensified much (there are stronger FL winds showing up now), it is confirming that the satellite appearance of more organization near the center is legit. Note that curved band of deep convection near the center, and how it is trying to wrap upshear. We'll see if the shear currently present keeps this organizational trend in check. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 2:20ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307Storm Name: ImeldaStorm Number & Year: 09 in 2025 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 20Observation Number: 09 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 1:53:20ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.74N 77.09WB. Center Fix Location: 27 statute miles (44 km) to the SE (142°) from Nassau, Bahamas.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,420m (4,659ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 160° at 3kts (From the SSE at 3mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the southeastG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 31kts (35.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 80 nautical miles (92 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix at 1:28:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 104° at 46kts (From the ESE at 52.9mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 75 nautical miles (86 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix at 1:30:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 28kts (32.2mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SW (228°) of center fix at 1:58:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 344° at 38kts (From the NNW at 43.7mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the SW (228°) of center fix at 2:04:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical milesRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) which was observed 75 nautical miles (86 statute miles) to the NE (45°) from the flight level center at 1:30:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... RAGGED EYEWALL 50% COVERAGE

I love fall and being in the Goldilocks zone for wx this time of year, so I’m with you on decent warmth—I just don’t like the upper level look. I want to see step downs. We keep saying these warm falls are fine and then I’m looking at +2 DJF and 30% of snow climo on March 15. I guess you could say I’m spooked

I really don’t like this but if there’s a saving grace hopefully we snap back to troughing as we get closer to November.

Shame they couldn't be there during the peak, but it's good to have data.

Yeah Oct 7-20 is critical to my peak season forecast. I'm still thinking things heat up in the western Caribbean and Gulf during that period, and then we are winding down the season by the end of October.

A truly terrible game.

High here of 85.4

Yes

Not much to say right now as Imelda continues to gradually (and slowly) organize. As the NHC notes, with the change in track forecast and further south position, this may end up in a more favorable position relative to the trough and SST/OHC, which could open the door for more intensification once this develops an inner core and pulls away from the coast. I think Imelda has an outside chance at becoming a major in the coming days. SHIPS continues to show meaningful probabilities for RI.

They have certainly earned my respect this season.

High of 85.1 here at WXW1. Average high is 71 lol. This is legitimate summer like wx.

Fits well with my peak season forecast.

The Euro has been just another model for a long time now. Even though this turn was part of the envelope of possibilities, what’s particularly jarring was the Euro/GFS and their ensembles choosing the wrong path together inside 100 hours. That’s noteworthy imo. The AI models seem to have schooled the legacy guidance on this one.

The Euro is just another model. Nowhere near its glory of a decade ago lol. With a well defined center now and slower motion, along with a weaker SE cutoff and stronger Humberto, it’s harder to see that escape route being closed.

Euro pretty much on an island

Sure ain’t something you see everyday

And their ensembles. At relatively short range.

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 27 2025 Humberto remains a large, powerful hurricane this evening, with a spectacular satellite presentation. The hurricane has a clear, 19C, symmetric 25 nm wide eye that is surrounded by a white ring of very, cold (-73C) cloud tops. The most intense deep convection associated with the eyewall appears to be just east of the surface center, where -78C (CMG) tops are discernible. Impressive ventilation aloft is provided by dual outflow channels located over the north semicircle of the cyclone. The latest subjective Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the various UW-CIMSS objective estimates support holding the initial intensity at 140 kt. Humberto could undergo inner core structural changes, which will likely cause intensity fluctuations during the next 12-24 hours. In fact, an earlier GPM/GMI overpass revealed a hint of concentric outer ring development, and the UW-CIMSS MPERC is indicating up to a 78hance of another ERC event. Afterward, the statistical and skilled consensus intensity models point toward a gradual weakening trend beginning around Monday. Through the remaining period, further weakening at a faster pace is expected while the cyclone becomes embedded in the strong upper-level westerly flow. By the 60 hour period, Humberto should continue moving around the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge located to the northeast of the cyclone and east of Bermuda. By Tuesday night, Humberto is forecast to turn north-northeastward while the ridge mentioned above weakens and shifts eastward. By mid-next week, Humberto should turn quickly toward the northeast to east-northeast in response to a major shortwave upper-level trough amplifying and moving out of the Canadian Maritimes and into the northwestern Atlantic waters. There remains quite a bit of along-track spread beyond day 4, which is typically seen when tropical cyclones move within the mid-latitude upper-westerlies and commence a structural transition to an extra-tropical cyclone. The NHC forecast is nudged toward the TVCA simple consensus and the HCCA corrected aid, and is close to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 23.4N 62.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 24.1N 63.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 25.4N 65.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 27.1N 66.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 29.1N 68.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 30.9N 68.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 33.2N 67.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 37.0N 58.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 44.7N 41.4W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts