WxWatcher007

This one could very well end up further west than Gabrielle. Would definitely watch in Bermuda. I expect the odds to go up at 2pm. It still has disorganized convection but it looks like it’s trying to consolidate.

Yeah as long as you have that flow over New England this one won’t get here. Could still do something further south though.

Unlike Erin, it looks like the lead wave could get west enough where even if there’s a trough around there could be a land threat. Steering pattern still looks a bit weird though.

I’m modestly intrigued. I said in my forecast that if there were an EC threat this year it’d be a shorter fuse wave that develops in the western Atlantic. That lead wave fits the bill. But it’s all just speculation at this point.

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (2) Hurricanes: 6 (1) Major Hurricanes: 3 (1) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH) Thank you Gabby! More likely on the way.

Really took off. GREAT for my forecast lol.

The tropics are active now with three systems being monitored. This is the thread for the current orange nearing the Leeward Islands. The forecast for this wave is complicated, with more implications for land than our central Atlantic cherry. The signal for development is not as strong as the Atlantic cherry, but this morning there is a modest amount of convection. The key to this wave and its possible risk to land is that it is likely to stay weak as it pushes across the northern Leeward Islands, bringing rain and gusty winds, but it finds a potentially more favorable environment for development in the southwest Atlantic. While the GFS has led the way in signaling development, in its latest run it consolidates both waves in five days off near the Bahamas. Meanwhile, the Euro, which was more bearish originally, keeps both waves separate. It is critical to see how the upper level pattern over the east coast develops, and whether the strength and orientation is enough to kick both waves out to sea or create an east coast threat. This one is definitely worth watching.

Yeah it’s time to break out the discussion with the trends continuing. Threads on both coming now.

The tropics are active now with three systems being monitored. This is the thread for the current central Atlantic cherry. There has been a strong cross guidance signal for days that a central Atlantic wave will develop. The models have actually been quite robust with this wave once it develops, in similar fashion to the rapidly intensifying Gabrielle. The AI ensembles, which have done a particularly good job sniffing the environment out, are particularly strong. Now, while the majority of guidance turns this out to sea without threatening any land masses, the amplitude and timing of a trough in the coming week will determine the eventual evolution, along with where this develops. I expect this to develop first if both waves develop.

It may be starting to take off with deep convection now wrapping fully around the center. It has a narrow window before environmental conditions become more hostile but the once anemic Gabby may put on a show before the curtain falls.

It’s a spectacular system

Model noise most likely. Most ensembles have nothing there with the focus on the SW Atlantic over the next week to ten days.

Gabby is now a hurricane after undergoing RI, and is forecast to become a major. Huge for my forecast. The models are also bullish on the central Atlantic wave developing, and possibly the leading wave. We’ll see if that trend continues but it’s a good look so far for my forecast…

There’s no need for a thread quite yet imo. It does look like conditions are becoming more favorable in the western Atlantic. It’ll be interesting to see if the trend toward the leading wave and central Atlantic area continues to move toward development.

Now forecast to briefly become a major. While the structure of Gabrielle on geostationary satellite is still a little ragged with warmer cloud tops than this morning, it has become more axis-symmetric, and a recent AMSR2 microwave pass at 1733 UTC indicates a thicker 37-GHz cyan ring than the one observed this morning. 18 UTC DTOPS guidance, which did well predicting Erin's rapid intensification period earlier this year, is now indicating a 62 to 76 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity over the next 24 h. Thus, I see no reason to not forecast continued steady to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 h, which is in line with the higher end of the intensity guidance, but not as high as the most recent HAFS-A run. After 36 h, SHIPS guidance shows southwesterly shear steadily increasing, and this should lead to steady weakening through the end of the forecast period. There is still some question as to Gabrielle's structure at the end of the forecast and whether it will be losing tropical characteristics. The southward shift in the forecast track suggests it might hang on to tropical characteristics a little longer than originally expected. The intensity forecast falls back close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids by the end of the forecast period.

Definitely a grain of salt but anything in that region would be worth watching with uncertainty about the depth and orientation of next week’s trough. This is pretty similar to what I thought in my peak season outlook with activity concentrated in the SW Atlantic. The late month CAG signal seems muted for now.

NHC has now designated that lead wave as a lemon. The GFS and AI ensembles have been more bullish on development odds while the Euro has basically nothing until the 12z run.

That area is now a lemon. The GFS goes wild with it but the Euro is far more lukewarm.

Gabby on its way to becoming our next hurricane

Desperate times…

50.7° At WxW1 and a balmy 38.8° here at WxW2. The color is moving quickly in the Adirondacks. It’ll be interesting to learn the SLK climo lol. Maybe @powderfreak and I will become upslope buddies?

I’ll take the over on no development after Gabby lol. You could see the tropical Atlantic being a dead zone again from a mile away—the real question is what happens when climo shifts to the Caribbean and homebrew regions. Those areas have been warmer with more instability and less shear all season. If their peak season is a bust, then we’ll be in bust territory.

Yeah it’s going to take a little time but this might very well take off once it has sufficiently organized. Could be some open ocean eye candy.

It is, but the convective trend has reversed with shear and dry air decreasing. This is why the models are once again getting bullish on organization and intensification this weekend.

Signs of life now.