WxWatcher007

Yeah and this year probably has the biggest signal yet for a lower activity eastern MDR even as the last few years in the tropical Atlantic has struggled. Given that we’ve blown the top off what’s possible with CAGs in this last decade, those climatologically favorable periods should be watched closely.

Excessive Heat Warnings or bust. High of 78° on the dot at home.

101/62 would work

I can’t remember the last time I went to a fast food chain

Still skeptical of that we end up with a big dog heat event, but the signal is definitely there for legit heat at least. I always sit up a little when Tip starts to talk Sonoran heat release. I’m guessing we fail Thursday

All the vorticity that could’ve become a seedling for TC development has stayed in the EPAC, which has led to a furious start over there. The Atlantic window is probably closed for the foreseeable future, at least in the western Caribbean and Gulf.

All the vorticity that could’ve become a seedling for TC development has stayed in the EPAC, which has led to a furious start over there. The Atlantic window is probably closed for the foreseeable future, at least in the western Caribbean and Gulf.

Sorry, Wiz

Very interesting. Maybe a move from the Gulf threats to recurve and EC risk.

65 and rainy here on June 10 at 1pm

Only problem is it doesn’t snow here anymore.

EPAC is hot right now. Nothing likely to happen here until that quiets down, but I do still think a window will open.

I don’t think we’re going back yet. The last few years have been so incredibly warm in the basin that it almost had to pull back once we moved away from the recent ENSO regime. As for this season…the SSTA in the tropical Atlantic and subtropics kind of scream stability issues but it’s early still. I’d like to see how waves fare as they come off Africa more continuously.

Heavy precipitation missing with precision.

I’m so sorry to hear that. Iirc you mentioned that before. Every single day is a gift.

EEE is the one to worry about. Vicious stuff.

I think it was more the idea of some scattered stuff. NW CT could be in for a nice one.

Couldn’t get it done down here. Hate to see it.

Now that’s real severe.

Gonna need a FFW west of ORH soon

2400 MLCAPE and 3000 SBCAPE here in central CT. Let’s try to get at least one chaseable nuke to detonate down here.

Feels like deep summah out here. We approve. I still haven’t installed yet though

Mesoscale Discussion 1145 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...Southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061601Z - 061800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail will be possible with multicell storms after 18-19z (2-3p EDT) this afternoon. The need for a watch is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating is ongoing across southern New England along and south of a diffuse baroclinic/differential heating zone. As surface temperatures warm through the mid-upper 80s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. By early-mid afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorm development will become probable along the diffuse baroclinic zone/buoyancy gradient. Steep low-level lapse rates, DCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg and precipitation loading could favor isolated wind damage with downbursts, while the moderately large buoyancy will be sufficient for marginally severe hail. Vertical shear will remain relatively weak and the storms are currently expected to remain only loosely organized, so the need for a watch this afternoon is uncertain. ..Thompson/Smith.. 06/06/2025

Rush 'em in and rush 'em out. Except winter of course, unless it's too icy, too cold, or doesn't snow early or often enough.