WxWatcher007

As I hope we all learned yesterday, we’re nowhere near having all the answers on the medium and longer range track. From the very beginning we knew Humberto and the steering pattern made this a highly complex forecast and some of us kind of settled into believing a false consensus on the models(EPS/GEFS)—myself included. I don’t think we know what’s going to happen yet. We just have to keep monitoring and communicating the track uncertainty. There’s also fairly substantial intensity uncertainty. Recon is in the PTC and is finding westerly winds now so it’s on an organizing trend even if the low is still broad. We will eventually have a defined enough center for a TC designation. Importantly, this is on the edge of the deep convection firing north of Cuba. In this kind of situation we have to watch for center reformations if deep convection continues, which here could significantly impact track. One thing is clear: the PTC is organizing at a steadier pace given the recon findings and satellite appearance.

Euro AI is back to the idea of running this up the coast as it gets trapped under the ridge and the Euro at 144 seems like it wants to trap future Imelda as well. Not worth much at this time but still something to watch. If the ridge doesn’t roll over to block the escape route future Imelda goes right OTS.

It had the stall and move east before the Euro/GFS and ensembles. The AI models have actually been excellent this season on balance. Of course, we’ll see how this all verifies.

Canadian starts out that way, but then gets trapped under the ridge and a much weaker version of future Imelda gets pulled into New England. Verbatim stuff aside, if this becomes a situation where it will be a close scrape of the SE coast, we’ll need to pay close attention to the orientation of this ridge and whether it closes off an escape route as Imelda tries moving eastward. I was always skeptical of Imelda getting well inland and I brought the ridging closing the escape route up as a possibility yesterday. While I’d be skeptical of some sort of threat further north, it really seems like anything is on the table. Anomalous ridging does anomalous things. Sometimes.

Humberto is a little west of track and is now forecast to become our second category five hurricane of the season.

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 26 2025 Humberto has continued to intensify rapidly this evening. The eye temperature has increased to 15C and the eyewall white ring (-73C) is nearly closed. A 2137 UTC WSFM-1 HiRes microwave pass indicated that a concentric ring was developing about 65 nm from the eye. The initial intensity is raised to 125 kt and is close to the UW-CIMSS ADT of T6.4 and above the constrained subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. All intensity contributions, low shear, warm waters, and ample mid-level moisture, appear conducive for Humberto to intensify rapidly during the next 12-24 hours. DTOPS guidance indicates a high probability of RI during the next 12-24 hours, and the latest official intensity forecast follows suit, bringing Humberto to a peak intensity of 140 kt Saturday night. By the 36 hour period, however, inner-core fluctuations as a result of eyewall replacement cycles (ERC) are possible, and it's difficult to forecast the exact timing. It's worth mentioning, however, that the UW-CIMSS M-PERC (Microwave-based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle) statistical model is predicting a 61 percent of onset. By mid-next week, increasing vertical shear spreading over Humberto should induce a gradual weakening trend. At the same time, while it passes west of Bermuda, a significant expansion in the surface wind field will likely occur. The NHC intensity forecast is just above the previous forecast through the 36 hour period, and closely follows a blend of the HCCA consensus and the HAFS/HWRF/HMON hurricane models. Humberto has taken a trochoidal jog to the left of the track this evening, likely due to the rapid intensification event. The initial motion is estimated to be slightly south of due west, or 265/6 kt. Humberto is expected to move slowly toward the west or west-northwest during the next day or so in the easterly steering flow provided by mid-tropospheric high pressure located to the north of the cyclone and just east of Bermuda. Around the 48 hour period, or Sunday evening, a northwestward turn with some reduction in forward speed is forecast while the above-mentioned high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. By day 4, Humberto should commence a rather abrupt turn northward and northeastward in response to a major shortwave upper-level trough amplifying and moving out of northeastern Canada and into the northwestern Atlantic. The official track forecast is located just to the left of the previous advisory, primarily due to the initial motion left of track, and lies between the HCCA corrected consensus and the Google DeepMind ensemble model. NOAA buoy 41044, located about 38 n mi southwest of the center, has reported falling pressure,sustained tropical-storm-force winds, gusts just below hurricane-force and 17 ft seas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 22.1N 58.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 22.2N 59.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 22.7N 61.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 23.6N 63.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 24.8N 65.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 26.2N 67.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 27.9N 68.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 32.1N 68.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 36.0N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

WOW Humberto now forecast to become a cat 5

Good to see the Euro AI take up the annual challenge of throwing tropical up the bay

Yeah we have a long way to go…

Even with this half scan, Humberto is an absolute beast.

It would be an enormous coup, especially considering where the ensembles were.

I'm surprised you didn't post the skynet version

Somebody mentioned Joaquin the other page and man, this might be worse. I don’t think there’s anyone that even has a clue of what this will do.

It would be an all time win for the second tier models.

This is truly remarkable uncertainty on the guidance given how close we could be to a landfall. The GFS follows what some ensemble camps have hinted at, but the outcome verbatim is just radically different in impacts and timing compared to recent op runs. This is a very tough system for emergency managers that need to prepare people to take action.

With Humberto rapidly intensifying today, another MH is on the board. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (3) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH)

Taking a look at our coming PTC. Thanks to @Nibor for showing me how to post larger gif animations. You can clearly see both the gradual organization and headwinds for the coming PTC 9. To the north, you can see arc clouds still radiating out of the area, indicating the presence of some dry air. You can also see some of the thunderstorm tops being sheared, although it does look like in recent frames that things may have slackened some. It's easier to see the larger scale spin, and recon is on the way to examine how well defined a low level center there is. For a relatively short term forecast, there is still a lot to be figured out.

It looks like the ensemble members on balance don’t have that coastal stall. The slower members stay OTS

Don’t look at the specifics. I’m just highlighting the threat of widespread high end rainfall. That signal has been there consistently, even though the axis of heaviest rain has bounced around.

Note how the ridge above slams the door shut for an escape, even though Humberto is able to initially exert some influence. It leads to a prolific rain event...

Closer to the coast than 00z, but a departure from the clear landfall at 06z. Humberto is pulling away as the ridge rolls over the top so the escape route probably closes. Still a lot to figure out with not a lot of time.

Keep this up and it might outdo winter storm posts.

PTC likely later today Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Humberto, located over the subtropical central Atlantic, and has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical cyclone Gabrielle over the northeastern Atlantic. Southwestern Atlantic (AL94): Satellite data and surface observations indicate that a low pressure system appears to be forming near eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas. This system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and gusty winds. Gradual development of this system is expected, and it will likely become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it moves northwestward or northward across the central and northwestern Bahamas. Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are ongoing in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba, and are likely to spread across the remainder of the Bahamas over the weekend. Interests in all of these areas should monitor the progress of the system. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the Bahamas and advisories on a potential tropical cyclone could be issued as early as later today. While there remains considerable uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. Interests in this area should also monitor the progress of the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart/Hagen

How did you get a larger gif to post?