I think it’d probably depend. I kind of bake in now that winters will be shorter and more crappy than nice so it’s not a huge leap that in an awful season I capitulate.
I’d probably need another few years of futility to be open to an early February flip though. At this time March is still my psychological barrier for cold to warm(er) season.
I view the NAO a lot like EMLs during the warm season. They don’t guarantee anything and are often useless, but in the right place at the right time they can make a mundane setup explosive.
I don’t think it’s all sorted out yet but I think tiresome is definitely the summation of the moment. Even in what should be an excellent pattern regime it seems like we’re fighting uphill to get anything meaningful. Years of fighting uphill no matter the upper level depiction.
I do think we can get some confluence changes in the coming days with the 6/7 deal to bring a light event back on the table but again, fighting uphill.
Congrats DCA
That said, we’re not going to bat 1.000 in this pattern, we just have to hope for as many swings as possible and not whiff on the 50mph fastball in the center of the zone that is the 10-12th period.
I have to say it is pretty disheartening to see that sw get annihilated coming out of the Midwest. Downright nauseating. Maybe it gives a chance for a coastal to take over though and salvage something.