WxWatcher007

Happy to take any snow you’re too good for in this poverty pattern.

Why does the GFS try to hang back so much here? That seems odd to me?

The 1/6 thing seems gone, but the GFS is trying to run a wave from the SE around the 11th. It’s a weird 500mb depiction though.

I mean if we’re being honest in SNE at least, even if we fell short of climo by 10-20% we’d probably take that as a win and have more hope for the next winter.

Maybe? Not to derail the thread but I’m not sure that for most the expectation is historical storm/season or bust. Climo is kind of objective. I average 45-50 a year and I can’t crack 15” without luck. That’s objectively bad. It’s made worse when we get these gorgeous 500mb looks that we exhaustively talk about (which we should—unnecessary pessimism is just as bad as gaslighting optimism) but then bring buffalo a superstorm or fade in time for us to enjoy cutters or some other fail mode. If we had a normal winter, I don’t think anyone reasonable would complain.

I mean I’m not bothered by people talking about what ensembles say at range. They are legitimately useful. But I think there is a little suspension of disbelief or positivity bias that happens in winter when we talk about snow chances specifically. You don’t even see it when we talk about cold and especially not with ice lol. No slight at anyone. We’re basically all here for good snowy winters. Maybe it’s a human nature thing.

I wouldn’t hold my breath for a wintry February either (not saying you necessarily are). I never expected to bat 1.000 here but it seems ominous that this fabled wonderful pattern could very well keep our average of significant region wide events at 0.000. Every year we get these beautiful 500h depictions and play the mental gymnastics to convince ourselves that this time it’ll be different from all the other failures, and it never is. Last month and your near normal snowfall notwithstanding, it’s been all or nothing for years around here and it’s been nothing more often than not, especially from a regional perspective.

I’m not sure there’s any coming back from that.

I’m not bothered by it. It gives hope that someday (voice cracking) my back yard too will know the joy of fresh cold powder.

I’d love to use it on banding from a big dog.

True, but backsliding hurts more too at this stage. I’m cautiously optimistic for light measurable here but we need additional help for sure. Ironically (and I’m just speaking for our yards not anyone else) the last minute trends this season have generally been in our favor…but with each system being fundamentally flawed.

Great stuff in this article, including our own @FXWX https://www.courant.com/2025/01/02/snow-day-or-go-day-how-ct-superintendents-make-the-call-during-inclement-weather/

I honestly believe that a sub 10” snowfall season is possible in SNE as a hypothetical bottom.

Awful is a disaster, bad is a joke, ok is meh, good doesn’t work, perfect is a nightmare.

And finally snow 41° here with flurries flying. Might be the most snow I see all month.

We half kid around here about model dopamine drips, but when you think of how that’s manufactured on social media through likes and other algorithms it’s really incredible. And horrifying.

Yeah. How OJ did it in 14 games is kind of wild (obviously a different game back then of course)

We quiet. We watch.

I started this morning by looking at my tropical chase videos and posts from the season. Sigh.

I need to see this take root on other guidance at 00z. Euro is on an island until then. Would definitely like to see a stronger vort and less confluence combination. Edit: ninja’d by Will

Yeah, I think there’s a low ceiling for any impact, and if anything happens it’s most likely CT-RI-SE MA.

.58 on the day

I posted about 12z earlier. It’s an outlier but if the Euro could find its former glory for this one that’d be great lol. I was very close to punting this morning but we’ve seen plenty of instances of the confluence seeing substantive changes on guidance outside of 48h. Still think anything that happens would be light at best but with a cold regime in place that would at least bring back some wintry appeal as the 11th and beyond gets into greater focus.

It’s an outlier yada yada and I know nobody cares in Mass and points north, but the Euro did try to get very light precip a touch further north with 1/6. I don’t think it’s coming back for a region wide crusher obviously but even .1 of qpf could be good for a ground whitener if someone can steal it.

Happy New Year! We rain. We thunder. We pour. We keep lights up until winter has sufficiently failed or satisfied me. Wishing all a happy and prosperous year ahead.