WxWatcher007
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Everything posted by WxWatcher007
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Yeah it still needs work
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@CoastalWx in the images above you want to see a further north and more buckled field, right?
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The mean looks much improved to me but I can’t see the members yet. 12z yesterday 00z last night 12z today
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Flurries here in East Hartford. At least I got a T out of the DC storm lol
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Yep. Won’t get there but I suppose it’s something. Let’s see what the ensembles do.
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It makes sense. At this point I think we want to see consistent improvement across guidance. Especially the ensembles and gfs/euro.
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00z 06z 12z
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Very good move on the GEFS. 00z 06z 12z
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Agree, though I still look at ops as another ensemble member at this point.
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This. A thousand times this. I still don’t care that much for the details. I just need to see fusion happen to know we’re in business. By 120 you know whether it’s game on or not looking at 500mb.
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
WxWatcher007 replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Seriously, get the energy to fuse at the right time and it’s a nuclear detonation right off the coast. Everyone cashes in. -
Fusion happens just in time for a thermonuclear detonation right off the coast. It’s precarious, but beautiful.
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Same on weathermodels
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I’ll be watching too
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Given what we’ve been through the last several years, there’s a part of me that feels the same. But it’s the kind of thing where imo if we can’t produce at least something significant in this setup, we just don’t have it (again) this season.
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Zero concern seeing that depiction on 00z, particularly considering that 12z spurred a forum wide panic that we were losing this completely. Just loop the 12z yesterday, 00z last night, 12z this afternoon, and 00z tonight. Plenty of volatility. Nothing settled, nothing lost. @40/70 Benchmark I agree with your earlier assessment that these models are merely stepping their way toward a nuke of a low. The moving pieces cloud just how big the potential really is. If we can’t close here…
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One bad run away from a state correctional facility?
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
WxWatcher007 replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Well, I knew this thread wouldn’t disappoint -
Totally agree. This is as close to all or nothing as it gets imo.
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clear as day on the means
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Good luck folks. Hope you all get crushed.
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You could kind of see that disconnect as early as 90h imo 00z 12z But it’s really evident 18 hours later 00z 12z My concern is that this disconnect shows up sooner rather than later so we need more immediate changes, but I agree with you that setting aside the surface depiction and just looking at 500, there’s not as much reason to be discouraged as you’d think.
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Rather than the nuclear detonation that you got from 00z because of the northern and southern energy fusion You get a much more tame event that’s all dependent on the NS Would love to see how the EPS and its members handle this. It still seems very sensitive to me and I think @Heisy makes a good point about the amplitude of the NS energy being an important component to if we get anything close to a phase.
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Middling evolution leading to a middling op result.
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Maybe, but Ray’s point though, and you can see it clearly on the models, we know where this is headed long before the storm ejects out of the south. So we are kind of on a clock to figure out if a phase is happening and if so to what extent. This doesn’t strike me as a scenario where there’s a massive comeback inside 48h because by then the connection will have long been missed. We probably have until 18z Tuesday maybe 12z Wednesday.
