WxWatcher007

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 The depression has generally changed little over the past several hours. The circulation remains well organized, and deep convection is gradually increasing near the center and in bands. An ASCAT pass from around 15Z showed peak winds of around 25 kt, and data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft show winds of about that same value. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory. The depression remains rather large and somewhat diffuse, with the associated shower activity covering much of the eastern Gulf. The system has barely moved today. In fact, it has drifted southeastward over the past few hours. This slow motion is due to very weak steering currents, with the depression currently caught between a ridge over the western Atlantic, another ridge over the south-central and southwestern U.S., and a trough over the northeast U.S. Most of the models show the cyclone drifting northwestward over the next couple of days, and its outer bands could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle beginning late Monday. A turn to the west or west-northwest is likely on Tuesday as the ridge over the U.S. builds eastward and becomes the primary steering feature. That motion should take the system along or just offshore of the northern Gulf coast during the middle and latter portions of the week. The NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit to the south, in best agreement with the usually best-performing aids HCCA, TVCN, and GDMI. The depression is expected to only slowly strengthen, especially in the short term, due to its sprawling structure, nearby dry air, and northeasterly vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday when it is offshore of the Florida Panhandle. The shear could briefly let up during the middle of the week, and if the system is still over water at that time, it could strengthen some more. There remains a large spread in the model solutions that range from the system remaining a tropical depression to even becoming a hurricane. Given the mixed environmental conditions and some expected land interaction, the NHC intensity forecast lies between those solutions, but leans closer to the upper end of the guidance. However, it is worth emphasizing that the intensity forecast is of low confidence given the uncertainty of how much land the system will interact with. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle beginning late Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect, 2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be required for portions of that area over the next day or two. 3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 27.5N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 27.9N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 28.2N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 28.5N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 28.9N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 29.2N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 29.4N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 29.2N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 29.3N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Recon shows TD2 meandering with not much change in organization. Going to take time for meaningful intensification but ensembles are still bullish **if** the LLC can stay south.

Recon is out there now and no surprise there is a well defined LLC. Should help with future modeling.

Not time to do an analysis but I want to note that the intensity trend was increasing before the designation on some ensemble guidance, including quite an outlier on the EPS. If this stays further south there is a window more more modest development as it moves toward the western Gulf. But we'll see what recon finds and get that data assimilated so hurricane models and other guidance can get a better sense of things. Seeing GDM with some modest members is very interesting. Note sure what the EPS sees but let's see if 12z is similar. I think the NHC opening with a 60mph landfall with land interaction forecast should tell us this has potential.

He's a clown, but last year it all but ended on 7/30.

Heyyy we have homebrew No time to do much analysis right now, but the intensity trend has been ticking up with models starting to latch onto the idea that this stays over water. If this stays south of Louisiana, watch out.

I'll also say this is a big, big win for AI guidance, especially Euro AI and Euro AI ensembles. It identified the window and also latched onto a more western track early on. I continue to be highly impressed by AI sniffing out windows in marginal conditions.

The underrated days are often the best days. Tends to be a good rule of thumb around here. So many of our higher end days seem to be conditional, so it's no surprise that up here those conditions are harder to meet than most other places that get storms.

We bust.

Severe season ends with a dud. At least we had July 4th.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91): Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad surface low is located over the eastern Gulf of America. The associated winds are currently light, and the shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. However, gradual development of this system is possible, and it could become a tropical depression while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward during the next few days. Interests along the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if needed. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

Discrete this afternoon, the line this evening.

Still a fair amount of ensembles that are showing development if this can stay out over water rather than get turned into FL. Good mid-level spin, but no real organization happening yet.

Mid-level spin but no indication of real organization yet.

Some pretty nasty supercell and sig tor numbers for western CT and points west on the 12z 3K Nammy. Soundings for HFD, BDL, and BDR. I'm still fairly skeptical of high end stuff here but I think it's an active day.

And not just the overall categorical risk. The 5% tor and wind has been pulled east as well.

Yep, totally agree. This will take some time if there’s going to be a true effort at TC genesis. The overall track and time over the Gulf is all important here IMO.

Might be some flood risk if those storms train in CT.

I love those offers

That would be the way to make it happen.

We started talking Monday about the potential for homebrew this weekend and now we have a seedling off the west coast of Florida. The visible satellite shows what looks like a mid-level circulation with a complex of thunderstorms. This area is related to a stalled frontal boundary, which is a climatologically favored way for homebrew development this time of year. The environment is marginal, but in my estimation more favorable than what we saw with our first and only TC of the season so far, Arthur. The area its expected to traverse is one of the warmer spots in the Gulf relative to normal. Looking at Euro and GFS analysis, while there is modest dry air lurking, moisture seems to be present enough to allow for convection to fire should this want to organize. A true limiting factor eventually may be the presence of shear to the north, but at the moment that is not hindering today's convection. The biggest factor IMO on whether this is able to develop, is how much time it has over water. This area is in a location trapped between a ridge in the Gulf and a ridge in the western Atlantic, which should allow it to meander for now. However, as a trough swings in, that will open a path for this to get shunted north/NNE. If that happens, development will be unlikely. The GFS, which has been far less bullish on TC genesis chances from the very beginning, shows this well. However, if that trough is not able to turn this area quickly, it could get trapped under a building ridge in the wake of the trough, pushing this further west and keeping the window for development open long enough for genesis to occur. The Euro AI has been most bullish on this scenario. The ensembles have waffled back and forth, but this season I've been putting more stock into the AI ensembles and GDM (Google DeepMind). You'll see a modest signal below from both the Euro AI and GDM, and the further west the low tracks the better the chance for development. So today it's worth watching how this area off the FL coast tries to fire persistent convection, and if it can organize as a result. This weekend the trends on track will be crucial to whether we see homebrew development or not.

Not the worst look on visible, but for TC genesis it's going to need to be able to fire more persistent convection.

Just have to stay offshore. Needs to get suppressed in the Gulf rather than dragged back into FL like some models try. Also--just looked at the 12z NAM for tomorrow. Active day ahead?