WxWatcher007

As predictable as the sun rising in the east.

Remember this one?

There are going to be some ugly cutters. We had virtually none last year which is unheard of lol.

It didn’t go that way last winter. Y’all cleaned up relative to normal. If they’re raining we’re raining too. Better hope the mix line stays in Long Island Sound.

We have a lemon. Good signal on guidance for some development. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a trough of low pressure over the central Subtropical Atlantic. While the environmental conditions are not currently favorable for development due to strong upper-level winds, the system is expected to move into a more favorable environment for some gradual development by the middle to later portion of this week. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the central part of the Subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Katz/Brown

Pretty good chance this is where our next name comes from imo. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a trough of low pressure over the central Subtropical Atlantic. While the environmental conditions are not currently favorable for development due to strong upper-level winds, the system is expected to move into a more favorable environment for some gradual development by the middle to later portion of this week. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the central part of the Subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Katz/Brown

It’s a southern CT year.

That is an ugly, ugly year here and up at WXW2 it’s catastrophically bad. SE must’ve hit on a scraper that melted down the forum.

While I'm skeptical of anything off the SE coast in the near future, the GDM has a relatively strong signal for something to pop in the subtropics. It does look like parts of the basin will become slightly more conducive in the coming weeks, as more favorable rising motion moves into the basin and shear potentially falls in a narrow region between the Gulf and subtropics.

And September snow for the NNE weenies

What a joke of a model. GFS with weenies for all.

Are there temp and snowfall maps for 82-83/97-98? Well, I know the temp maps are out there.

Couldn’t agree more. We will have our chances.

Very interesting looking at the images from the respective years. This year’s Atlantic has really warmed up compared to earlier in the season though we’re seeing most of the warmth in the subtropics.

No disagreement there. I’m thinking that as we see more penetrating cold fronts, offshore coastal lows, and CAG season opening up late September into October, things pick up. Maybe we get something else in the MDR, but it seems unlikely to me. I still have 3 H and 1 MH for my peak season forecast.

Going to be extremely close for a eye pass, but an eyewall scrape will be rough.

Should be impactful but they still dodged a bullet

Low of 49°. Coldest since June. Only 47° up at WXW2, but that’s enough for SLK to reach 37°.

All about location. Been a beautiful weekend here in EH. Only a quick .04” here yesterday. 63/57 currently 54/49 at WXW2

I still think there will be life in the Atlantic eventually. But it’s going to be a while and the windows will be narrow—geographically and time wise.

@40/70 Benchmark do you think the current volcanic eruption will impact things at all?

It's really interesting to see the strides made by AI guidance in recent years. We'll see if that continues into this winter. As I remember it, AI ensembles were great least year when legacy guidance was too quick to kick our coastal events out to sea.

And 500mb