WxWatcher007

The signal looks real with a CAG looking to develop and the EPAC starting to light up, but the AI ensembles not being as robust still gives me pause. Either way, another interesting aspect here is the models all showing the potential for tropical moisture to get carried into at least the southeastern U.S. as a ridge flexes in the western Atlantic and a trough tries to sweep eastward from the central U.S., creating a near ideal conveyor belt for moisture transport. That’s something to watch in its own right, and why I’m a little skeptical of the euro operational burying whatever seedling there is in the Bay of Campeche.

Still a strong difference between the legacy ensembles—which have a growing signal for Gulf development—and the AI ensembles which have a weak signal at best.

True but the ensembles have a strong signal for some sort of genesis inside of ten days. AI less so.

18z doubled down

ENH for Philly lol

Waiting for my first severe day up here

The signal for development around mid-month has been mixed on the operational and ensemble guidance, but it looks more and more like a CAG will set up and give the chance for some development in the Gulf. Today's GFS, which probably isn't right, would be fun all the way up the coast haha. Drought buster.

Eastern Mass would lose its mind

What I would give for something like this.

Development signals continue on guidance today.

We will see if the signal becomes more consistent in the coming days, but today was really the first where we saw a stronger signal for TC genesis in the Gulf across operational and ensemble guidance near that mid-month window.

Going with 9/4/2

Models are starting to light up in the EPAC I’m the coming days. A fast start seems increasingly likely there.

I take great pride in not using pesticides on my property but two years ago I nuked the Knotwood along my property line and after a dormant year it has just exploded in that same zone. I hacked at it and left the remnants in the sun to bake, but it's concerning. I have several invasive species on the edge of the property, but that is by far the worst. See above. Sometimes I feel like not using the chemicals just allows the invasive stuff expand but I have good biodiversity (I think) on my patch of land than neighbors. I'm very excited to see how the firefly population looks this year imby.

A few nice views heading up here yesterday.

Very interesting data and absolutely, we can't forget that even if we don't see a particularly strong tropical system wind wise there could be big and far reaching impacts from rainfall. I'm guessing that early and late season will probably be most favorable for TCG because I think tropical waves are going to have an extremely hard time during peak season to survive the trek west. In the eastern MDR they are going to find a profoundly stable and hostile environment, and any that make it to the Caribbean will get ripped apart by shear. Any trying to scoot north of the Antilles are likely to run into big TUTTs ripping them apart. Waves will develop, but it's going to be uphill to say the least imo. I kind of think CAG will be the most favorable mode for TCG this year. We'll see. Another important point--it doesn't even need to be a high end Nino to cause major issues basin-wide. The SSTa tell a lot of the story. The MDR is cool (remember when some thought it would never cool again haha) and the orientation doubles down on stability/subsidence issues we had even during the highly active years recently.

And we’re off…

I can’t speak to winter, but my full expectation given the conditions in the Atlantic is that the strengthening Nino will be even more suppressive than some of the current seasonal predictions.

Yeah, if there are breaks in shear in the homebrew region (a big if), homebrew is likely the best chance at tropical genesis.

I was about ten degrees warmer than you at that time yesterday, and got up to around 55 once the sun broke out yesterday afternoon. Impressive nonetheless. Cold cold late May day.

Not everybody got in on the same level of action but that’s tropical. Not taking anything away from the eastern New England area that got rocked. Approaching 35 years without a strike now…

Down to 36.4° at WXW1. That’s damn impressive for late May here.

It wasn’t high end regionally, but it was good enough for some excitement. That’s going to be hard to come by this season. I have extremely low expectations in the basin this season.

Ironically, while all that was happening I was at the science center here with my niece.

That is a really really rough look for the Atlantic and MDR especially. Stability/subsidence is going to be a massive issue in the tropical Atlantic this year.