WxWatcher007

Given that this might be a late season sprawling system, definitely a good chance this is a moisture laden system. Resharing here.

Thread up now.

Yeah I think there's a chance, though there may be high pressure around that suppresses activity to our south. Still too early to know, though. Up to 70% 7 day odds in a historically favorable area for TC genesis.

The historically quiet Atlantic may have one final gasp before closing the door on the season, and this one is in the southwestern Gulf. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Southwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Kelly We've all been tracking this one for a few days, and while odds have significantly increased, there's still a fair amount of uncertainty on what this one could actually become. While development looks likely with the geographically favorable genesis location of the Bay of Campeche (the concave nature of the region promotes spin) alongside warm SSTs and an upper level pattern favorable for divergence (promoting strong convection) there are issues with westerly shear if the system is not perfectly aligned with the jet coming from the west and potentially dry air. Most guidance at least at the moment is modest in intensity as it pulls the eventual system northeast into the northern Gulf coast.

I know. I’m skeptical we ever see anything if high pressure builds in and buries that potential system south. 1899 is one of the all time greats in U.S. history imo.

@vortex95 will learn. Winter is hand to hand and town to town combat around here. Michael, Ian, Laura, Ida, Helene, Milton...just to name a few. 3k Nammy has some flakes in the high peaks this week. More likely than a big event. Deeply skeptical of leftovers here, but I think we have a shot at some Gulf development. Might close out the season of futility.

46.7° at WXW1 / 48° at HFD 33.7° at WXW2 / 27° at SLK Coldest so far at WXW2. Should reach the 20s the next few nights with SLK having a chance of reaching the teens.

I think so. Season is just about done. Incredible futility for the basin as a whole.

Impossibly beautiful day up at WXW2. A generational foliage run here this year which I hope extends to SNE in another week or two.

You’re a bad man. So, when are we firing up the NNE snow, I mean, cold season, thread?

It’s time. Long past time.

Man, if I’m reading that first link right, that’s real cold compared to today. 80.6° at WXW1 60.8° here at WXW2

Warm and rainy?

Cottonelle soft weenies.

It’s really wonderful in the northern tier. Drove up Whiteface into the clouds.

No hurricanes seems to be increasingly likely, but as for activity, the Gulf is starting to light up a bit on AI ensemble guidance.

I think there's a non-zero chance up our way. Maybe on the peaks though.

God, this place delivers. The pictures don't do it justice.

Back up at WXW2 and the color is spectacular.

Two whole tropical storms in the Atlantic!

We will (almost) always be the minimum here in the valley. The only things we do well are downsloping and CAD. I’m just far enough to avoid it. Sometimes. 2.83” final. 5.59” in September 15.57” since July 1.

Yep and you see it across many aspects of society.

You know the storm is winding down as we reach this stage of the discussion. Approaching a total of 3” of rain now. Here’s hoping we get several moisture laden nukes this winter.