WxWatcher007

Big heat is gone for now and we quickly turn our attention to an unusual summer setup. Weak high to the north, a weak low to the south, and an all-important warm front which will wring out PWATs of 1.5-2.0" between late tonight and Tuesday. Flood watches are up for CT, which may be expanded depending on where the axis of heaviest rain sets up. Ensemble guidance has a heavy rain signal Some high resolution guidance goes wild. The main takeaway is that while there may be a sizable area of meaningful rain (my forecast is 2-4 generally for CT) there is high end localized flash flooding potential where the warm front sets up. Most models have been fairly consistent in focusing the heaviest general and localized rain in SNE. For most, the mitigating factors here are 1) Outside of the axis of heaviest rain this is likely to be a spread out rainfall over many hours rather than short burst deluge and 2) antecedent conditions have been relatively dry, though many in CT have seen rain in recent days. Let's discuss. Let's flood.

Spread out over two days may help, but this increasingly looks like it has high end potential somewhere.

3k Nammy is absolutely hellacious in Connecticut Monday and Tuesday.

Someone reported damage along Rt 8. Damn good storm right now out there.

Treetops sheared off in Torrington

It’s gotten awesome once the front passed.

Yep. Let’s amp it up and flood.

Let’s do it.

What’s your forecast for your backyard? Happy 4th!

I’m more than a little skeptical of big totals, but with that gradient and high amounts of moisture available someone will get smoked.

It’s going to go nuclear

95.1/75 at WXW1 82/66 at WXW2

Running just behind yesterday’s pace now at WXW1. 91.7°

Interesting (from a few hours ago)

98.7° for a high

Not sure my station can hit 100°

99/70 at HFD 97.6/79 at WXW1

KNYC 100°

10am 85.3/76 at WXW1 91/70 at HFD 78/67 at SLK 75.0/70 at WXW2

The storm that popped over WXW1 in central CT went from nothing to a 54k top in under 20 minutes. That’s nuts.

Damage in the area from that line of storms. Another awesome night.

88/75 at HFD 87.5/77 at WXW1

Having someone die on your property is definitely something insurance companies want to see.