WxWatcher007

It’s been fascinating to watch the impact on the structure of the hurricane too. This is the best it’s looked, but once it passes to the west it should get disrupted for a bit.

I’m a sucker for center passes but you are right. The RFQ is hitting dead on. It’s going to be a rough ride for them.

G140 reported at Mauna Kea Summit!! Likely to be a close miss with regard to official landfall for the big island but some significant impacts showing up on damage reports across Hawaii.

Man we need tropical

Unfortunately, it looks like there won't be much if any more recon of Lala as recon is flying back to the mainland. The storm has struggled to organize a tight inner core, which makes it very hard for any kind of meaningful intensification to happen, but it's trying. We knew that would be an uphill battle. This morning's IR loop shows an attempt to wrap convection around the center, which is necessary for a faster pace of organization and intensification. Whether it truly gets there however, remains to be seen. Shear in the immediate vicinity doesn't look too bad at the moment. Lala remains embedded in a very dry environment, and although today it looks like it has more effectively fended off dry air intrusions, any ingestion of that dry air could disrupt an effort to organize and intensify. Marginal SSTs don't help either. All that said, the forecast looks on track. This is a higher end tropical storm, and with time and a somewhat conducive environment for organization and intensification a hurricane is certainly plausible. We're well within radar range now and can now watch for lower level organizational trends. Compared to this morning where there was a well defined but broad and ragged center, now we have what looks like a tightening inner core trying to form. Still, we don't have deep convection wrapping fully, but it's trying. Notice the wobble south too. As a chaser, once you get to this stage every wobble matters (even though you care about the long term movement still). It's still not a guarantee that we see an official landfall here, though impacts will be significant regardless.

Looks like that activity was a mirage. A lot of waves, but extremely hostile conditions. We'll need to see if any of those seedlings can survive into the western Atlantic I guess, but even there conditions don't look great. Might need to wait for better climo to arrive before any breakthrough is possible.

Haha isn’t the lowest at ORH 21.4”? If so I could see a record low in the next 20 years, but not sub 10”. That’d probably mean goose eggs for most of SNE lol.

Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 11 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026 Lala has changed little in organization during the past several hours, with most of the deep convection remaining over and north of the center. However, data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the cyclone has strengthened some this afternoon. Pressure observations from nearby NDBC buoy 51004 have also been useful in assessing the cyclone as it passes close to the station. Based on a blend of the aircraft data, buoy observations, and overall satellite presentation, the initial intensity is set at 55 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290/10 kt. A mid-level high pressure system anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands should continue to steer Lala generally west-northwestward during the next several days. Some slowing of the forward motion is possible as the cyclone approaches the Big Island and begins to interact with the island's terrain on Saturday. Short-term deviations in the track are also possible during this time. After passing near or over the southern portion of the Big Island, Lala could make a subtle turn toward the northwest in the lee of the island before resuming a west-northwestward motion south of the smaller islands through the remainder of the weekend. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the mult-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 h while environmental conditions remain generally favorable. Although mid-level dry air continues to be a limiting factor, the inner circulation could become somewhat more compact and organized as Lala approaches the southern portion of the Big Island. The NHC forecast therefore continues to show Lala reaching hurricane strength near the time it reaches the Big Island on Saturday. Interaction with the island's terrain should then disrupt the low-level circulation and result in weakening, with increasing vertical wind shear associated with an upper-level low providing an additional negative influence later in the weekend. Some re-strengthening is forecast early next week as vertical wind shear relaxes and Lala remains over warm sea surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains near the middle- to upper-end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected on the Big Island of Hawaii Saturday, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas of higher terrain. Preparations should be rushed to completion this evening before tropical-storm-force winds begin. Tropical-storm-force winds are also expected across portions of the smaller islands this weekend. 2. Heavy rainfall will reach the Big Island this evening and spread westward across the remainder of the island chain this weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Large and dangerous waves are expected across portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. Surf is already building along east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 17.6N 152.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 18.0N 154.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 18.8N 155.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 20.0N 158.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 20.7N 161.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 20.9N 163.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 21.0N 166.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 21.5N 170.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 22.8N 173.3W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs

Six hour time difference. It’s just after noon currently in Hawaii.

I haven’t gone sub 10” and I’ve had some truly awful winters in a sub-optimal snow spot in SNE. Given the boom/bust cycle we seem to have been in since the 2010s I think a record low is on the table, but probably not that low. As hard as it is to go wire to wire deep winter, I think it’s even harder to go wire to wire zero winter, especially at ORH.

Doesn't look like much of a core on that first recon pass today. We'll see what they find on the north side though. The IR looks relatively disheveled. New cone likely brings an official landfall.

Models really backed off this one too.

Sacrificial wave it seems.

Dumb question, but radial velocity?

That's a good and interesting point. Given how few examples we have of this kind of scenario in this part of the Pacific, I would probably look at it with more of a grain of salt than say the MDR activity we currently have over in the Atlantic. HAFS-A and B would be my preferred intensity guidance here, especially after a cycle or two of recon ingested data. As for track, I'd still lean south for a center pass, avoiding landfall but still bringing wind, rain, and surf impacts.

What's the record minimum?

Hmm…down to 60% odds

95/74 is not our climo on August 13th Would’ve been a good chase trip but the logistics are a mess and I’m thinking the center passes south of the big island as a strong TS, not hurricane. I try to stay away from Island Roulette.

“On 11 September 1992 Hurricane Iniki scored a direct hit on the island of Kaua‘i. Over a period of only 3 hours, the category 4 hurricane (on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale; Simpson 1974) caused damage equivalent to the total general fund budget of the state of Hawaii at that time and wiped out the historical profits of the Hawaii homeowners insurance industry.” That is a staggering amount of damage. 1871 looks really bad too based on the descriptions.

Now that’s a storm.

Where can I go to make one of these? lol

Beautiful summer day out there

Pretty good chance we get TC genesis here. Gradual organization continuing.