WxWatcher007

The Gulf signal vanished on GDM, and the subtropics signal is weak at best. This could very well be it for the season. My forecast period is ending 10/20 so it’s almost time to assign a grade.

Might be a little early for big LES, but first flakes seem increasingly likely up here this weekend.

Interesting end to the BTV discussion With a northwesterly flow and sufficient moisture in place, we cannot rule out upslope/mountain snow showers or flurries next weekend, with some minor summit-level accumulations possible. Once the system exits and skies finally clear, this autumn snow against the remaining fall foliage at low elevations could make for a highly picturesque and contrasting view across the high peaks of the Adirondacks and Vermont`s Green Mountains.

Yeah so much for the severe risk busting.

When was the last time the region had widespread 1”+ rainfall?

First flakes across New England next weekend? Kiss of death for winter?

Congrats on the rain

Snow showers in the forecast for the first time for next weekend. Cross guidance signal for a deep through to roll through. Been there for a while actually.

Nice scenery can be found in many places in New England, but yeah, it’s a different experience to travel and see the foliage over vast mountainous landscapes, especially when it’s a generational year.

GDM with a signal in the subtropics and NW Caribbean/BoC next week.

They’re a week late Signal for elevation flakes is there…

I am a little surprised by that and we’ll see what today brings, but that would obviously be a welcome development if that busted.

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 Isaias made landfall as a 90-kt hurricane at 0130 UTC near Destin, Florida. Since that time, the radar structure of the storm has continued to degrade as strong vertical wind shear disrupts the circulation. However, Eglin AFB (KEVX) radar data and surface observations indicate damaging, gusty winds are persisting in the residual northern eyewall and in a band wrapping around the western side of the circulation. Now that the system is farther inland and losing organization, the initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory. Isaias is rapidly losing tropical characteristics, and it is forecast to become post-tropical within the next 12 h while it continues moving quickly northward through Alabama. Although the sustained surface winds associated with Isaias will quickly weaken now that the storm is inland, damaging wind gusts associated with the system are expected to extend well inland through Saturday, especially in areas of higher terrain. Because of this, the gust factors in the forecast have been slightly increased during the first 24 h. A turn toward the northeast is forecast later this weekend, bringing the center of the system into the Tennessee Valley before it dissipates. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to Suwannee, Florida where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. Residents in the warning area should continue to follow advice given by local officials. 2. Extremely dangerous and damaging hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama where a Hurricane Warning remains in effect. Residents in these areas should have a safe room to ride out the storm and prepare for long-duration power outages. 3. Damaging wind gusts are likely over a large portion of the southeastern United States from western and northern Georgia and the southern Appalachians, westward over much of central and northern Alabama, southern middle Tennessee, and Mississippi, especially in areas of higher terrain. Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid driving high-profile vehicles, prepare for power outages, and be aware of the potential for falling trees. 4. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast through the weekend. Considerable flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding, will be possible. Landslides are also possible across the Southern Appalachians. 5. The tornado potential will continue through tonight. The greatest risk will be east of the center, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. This risk will continue spreading north-northeast across parts of the Southeast on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 30.8N 86.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 32.7N 86.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 11/0000Z 34.7N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 11/1200Z 36.9N 84.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 39.0N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Yeah that’s my point. Those offshore sustained winds rarely get measured onshore. Idk why people here think those NHC operational winds will tear through the landfall zone. The gusts imo tell the story. They’re legit.

Thank you so much for your reports. I hope you and your family/property make it through ok. Slim pickings the last two seasons. Hurricane chaser convergence is an interesting experience.

Right at landfall. Good short range forecast by GDM and a few others.

Max winds at 105 looks about right given onshore obs and gusts. Y’all do this every hurricane lol.

He’s bored in his backyard

60mph gusts starting to be reported along the coast.

Yes, despite the erosion of the low level inner core, there’s still plenty of deep convection and lightning. This will still be a strong hurricane, as the NHC has said for a while now.

We'll see. Recon is showing maybe some hints of shear starting to impact the core. We're very fortunate the shear is here.

I'll just add note the deep convection with lightning that continues to fire around the center. As long as that happens, this isn't weakening any.

I see 951.6mb extrap. A very substantial fall.