WxWatcher007

Yeah, that’s all true. It makes sense to wait until there’s either another overnight cycle of observations or for recon to confirm. The PTC designation was designed for these scenarios and raising the proverbial alarm tomorrow isn’t a bad call if the ceiling continues to be limited.

Pouring here (back in CT)

This doesn't strike me as anything significantly above our baseline warmer state, but it's a 5-day average. First half of September seems fine to me. Not a torch, not frigid, but seasonable...which means a step down on balance. BDL's hi/lo by September 14 is 76/54.

Starting to see just a hint of color change up in the Adirondacks.

Unfortunately, I don't think it will. I don't see a lot of ridge erosion on the guidance. Might need to wait until mid-month.

Looks like it's a TD already, but I could see the NHC waiting until recon arrives to confirm. A PTC designation at 11pm works just fine. The main takeaway for me with the image below is the convection continuing to fire even as we fade into DMIN. I wish it were in radar range, but I'd guess there's a tightening center in there. It helps a lot to have weak shear in the area.

Torch out west. We step down in New England.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northern Gulf of America (AL97): An area of low pressure located over the northern Gulf of America, about 125 miles south of the coast of southeastern Louisiana, continues to become better defined, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued gradual development is expected as the low moves slowly west-northwestward, and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Interests along the southwest Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later tonight or Monday morning. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low-pressure area on Monday morning. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

This one has legs

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northern Gulf of America (AL97): A low pressure area is located over the northern Gulf of America about 125 mils south of the coast of southeastern Louisiana. Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data indicate that this system has become better organized since yesterday. Additional development is possible as the low moves slowly west-northwestward, and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts Tuesday or Tuesday night. Interests along the Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...50 percent.

Up to 50% odds

We have homebrew potential in the Gulf as an area of low pressure has formed in the northern part of the region and is producing persistent disorganized convection. The NHC has taken note, and the odds of development have gradually risen to 30%. The key inhibitor here is time, although the guidance has pointed to a more modest development signal, this is likely to be onshore near the Texas/LA border in 48-72 hours. Generally speaking, however, the conditions do seem to be favorable with very warm SSTs (not thinking about OHC needed to sustain a strong system given proximity to land and timing) in the northern Gulf. There is dry air to its north, and that could also be an inhibiting factor, but so far that hasn't prevented consistent convection, which has been deep at times. The more consistent deep convection can be, the more likely we see eventual pressure falls and the tightening of the low pressure. However, should dry air make an intrusion it could disrupt any progress toward organization into a TC. Importantly, shear is low in the basin. In fact, it's basically the only place in the Atlantic that has a large enough area of low shear to have a meaningfully large enough window for development. That's consistent with my peak season forecast, but we'll see if it leads to another short lived TC here. Shear may be kept at bay, but the signal is a bit mixed on whether we see some southerly shear eventually develop. Overall, I think this is a legitimate homebrew opportunity for a weak tropical storm that would impact the northern Gulf coast in a couple of days. I think there's a good chance 97L has slightly increased odds and is an orange for the 2pm outlook. Northern Gulf of America (AL97): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 125 miles south of the coast of southeastern Louisiana have become more concentrated. However, current surface observations indicate that the system has not yet strengthened. Slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it drifts westward to west-northwestward across the northern Gulf. Interests along the Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

Clouds have taken over here but the other night with the eclipse it was pretty spectacular. Actually, every clear night is up here. Even with being near “downtown” the sky is incredibly dark and magnificent.

Of all things too…they don’t keep snow records. That’s annoying.

Huh, one thing I just noticed looking at SLK’s summer stats. June was +0.8°. July ended up dead normal. 0.0° departure. Can’t say I’ve seen that often for any site…but as of yesterday, August was also 0.0°.

We love to see it. Seasonal change is beautiful. It was 35° like you mentioned at KSLK, but 46.3° here at WXW2. I am approximately 5 miles away from the airport as the crow flies. I’ve found that a 10 degree spread or so is normal on a rad cooling night.

Yeah, direct impacts with the eyewall but no landfall.

GDM with a Gulf signal. Need to dig a little deeper on it though. Just been so busy.

I’d sign right now for a repeat. Which year?

Been a minute since we’ve had something to really talk about, but of course, ‘17-‘25 (added 2025 because of the behemoth that was Melissa) was a pace we couldn’t sustain much longer.

Former Dolly with a new burst of convection

Remnants Of Dolly Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 28 2026 During the past few hours, the center of Dolly passed just north of NOAA buoy 41041, which did not observe any westerly winds. Examination of high-resolution satellite imagery also does not readily indicate any westerly winds south of the center. Based on this, Dolly has become an open tropical wave, with the initial and forecast positions being that of the vorticity maximum. The initial intensity remains 35 kt, with those winds occurring north of the vorticity center. The system is moving 280/22 kt, and this motion should continue for the next 24 h. After that time, a general westward to west- northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed should take the remnants of Dolly near the Leeward Island Saturday night or Sunday, and near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. A continued west-northwestward motion is expected after that, with the remnants moving through the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas during the early part of next week. The system is currently in a hostile environment with significant southwesterly shear and dry air. These conditions should continue for at least the next 2-3 days, and the remnants should slowly weaken during this time. The official forecast shows 24 h of points where the maximum winds are at tropical-storm force and there is a well-defined vorticity center. After that, the winds are expected to decrease below 35 kt, and the system center is expected to become less well-defined. Some global models hint at the possibility that Dolly could regenerate in several days, but at this time there is poor agreement on where and when this might occur. Should conditions warrant, further information regarding the potential redevelopment of the remnants of Dolly will be provided in subsequent Tropical Weather Outlooks. This is the last advisory on Dolly issued by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rains from the remnants of Dolly could affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may produce flash flooding within areas of higher terrain of the Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 15.0N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 29/0000Z 15.6N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 29/1200Z 16.4N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

It’s been fall up here for the last week and a half. It’s coming. 9.78” at WXW1 since July 1. Just incredible rainfall in southern CT, but it’s been your year. Big snows, big storms, big rains…