WxWatcher007

Gorgeous day

Absolutely sick of missing storms here in Death Valley but at least we got a beautiful sunset out of it. More fireflies are out tonight as well.

New England climo

Time for the first analysis of the 2026 season. As @nw baltimore wx notes, our area of interest, which was the first lemon of the season deep in the Bay of Campeche, is now a banana, which scrapes the western Gulf. 1. Western Gulf: A broad area of low pressure has formed over the far southern Bay of Campeche and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary, but there too, conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive for any development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. You can see below that we have a broad area of spin, and in the Bay of Campeche, where the concave nature of the coastline allows for consolidation of vorticity, this may be a favorable factor that's now being picked up by the AI models--which have frankly outperformed the legacy models recently. Aside from being buried currently in the geographically favorable BoC, the conditions for tropical genesis look marginal. SSTs are fine, but they're marginal. Nothing too surprising for this time of year. Wind shear currently isn't an issue, but upper level winds do not look favorable outside of a small window, with a huge ribbon of high shear across the Gulf and through the Caribbean and Atlantic. That said, you don't need much for marginal development this time of year, and while the legacy models (GFS/Euro and their ensembles) were bullish earlier on central/eastern Gulf development that ended up being wrong, with AI so far winning out on the possible zone of development. While the legacy ensembles quickly bury this broad low in Mexico and crucially--keep it there. The AI models pick up the low before it gets too far inland. That keeps the window open for development as it curves around the western Gulf. Note the difference between the EPS and AI EPS! Google DeepMind, which I believe performed the best in highlighting tropical genesis signals last season, is starting to show more interest in this idea as well. This one has a chance for some marginal development, if it can stay offshore for an extended period of time. Either way, this continues to highlight the signal I've mentioned before for heavy rain in the southeast.

LGA G69 on that latest thunderstorm

A little concerned that I only saw two fireflies in my backyard tonight. Hopefully they’re just early.

We’d take

Can’t wait for the good stuff to hit up here, but today was pretty nice.

First lemon of the season in the BoC.

First lemon of the season in the BoC.

Looking more like a Campeche window than Gulf now. Would be a win for AI. Forget hitting the snooze button. Pull the alarm clock out the wall, chief.

Always believed that muggy was low 60s, humid was mid to upper 60s and oppressive started at 70. Anything 75 and above was uncommon for the region. Idk when people started lowering the standard

The signal looks real with a CAG looking to develop and the EPAC starting to light up, but the AI ensembles not being as robust still gives me pause. Either way, another interesting aspect here is the models all showing the potential for tropical moisture to get carried into at least the southeastern U.S. as a ridge flexes in the western Atlantic and a trough tries to sweep eastward from the central U.S., creating a near ideal conveyor belt for moisture transport. That’s something to watch in its own right, and why I’m a little skeptical of the euro operational burying whatever seedling there is in the Bay of Campeche.

Still a strong difference between the legacy ensembles—which have a growing signal for Gulf development—and the AI ensembles which have a weak signal at best.

True but the ensembles have a strong signal for some sort of genesis inside of ten days. AI less so.

18z doubled down

ENH for Philly lol

Waiting for my first severe day up here

The signal for development around mid-month has been mixed on the operational and ensemble guidance, but it looks more and more like a CAG will set up and give the chance for some development in the Gulf. Today's GFS, which probably isn't right, would be fun all the way up the coast haha. Drought buster.

Eastern Mass would lose its mind

What I would give for something like this.

Development signals continue on guidance today.

We will see if the signal becomes more consistent in the coming days, but today was really the first where we saw a stronger signal for TC genesis in the Gulf across operational and ensemble guidance near that mid-month window.

Going with 9/4/2