WxWatcher007

Beautiful day on the river

Can't say I've seen the gray X before. RIP I guess.

I have to say, I might be a bit biased after having my first fall and winter up there. Spring was rough--SLK was a ghost town in April--but my goodness it's wonderful up there. Just need to get a good squall line day up my way to complete it. Some folks in the Mid-Atlantic region used to organize a Midwest chasecation years ago. It'd be a hoot to have the regulars here crammed in a SUV driving through Kansas.

Because when it’s nice it’s really nice. Also they do snow and severe better than us

Drove up to Lebanon (I had no idea Woodstock got hit otherwise I would have surveyed the damage) and then drove back down 91 through some hellacious rain. Most brutal driving I've done in the rain since Dorian in NC. Encountered some scattered damage along the way. Nothing crazy. Got some great shots though. Great day overall for me.

Catastrophic flooding in parts of LA, and it looks like the Euro did well with the remnants’ evolution.

New warning up

Something out near Palmer @weatherwiz?

Around 4:30 heading S on 91 near South Hadley I saw brief lowering and rotation.

Wagons north. Heading to VT.

Nammy doesn't look too bad.

I suggest you log off and enjoy the New England gray overhead these next 10 hours.

HRRR gone wild up north.

Short lived but yeah. Some good bursts of convection still going down there. Yeah, that line looks solid right now. The line looks pretty damn robust on the 12z HRRR in NNE.

4.97”/hr rain rate right now

...Northeast... Within a broader area of cyclonic flow aloft, a leading shortwave trough will move from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast, with a 90 kt midlevel speed max and cooling aloft moving across NY and parts of New England during the day. Low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into the region. Surface heating and gusty south winds will bring 60s F dewpoints into the area with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE expected. Relatively warm profiles will develop near 300 mb, somewhat limiting storm depth. However, ample midlevel cooling will still support sufficient destabilization. Strong deep-layer shear and backed surface winds ahead of the cold front will favor low-topped supercells. Cells should develop over northern NY by 18Z, and will move quickly east, producing marginal hail and sporadic damaging gusts initially. The low EL height may mitigate hail production somewhat. By late afternoon, a tornado or two will be possible as storms encounter a stronger SRH environment farther east.

Just found spotted lanternfly nymphs on some vine in my yard. How do I wipe them out?

...New England/Mid-Atlantic... Convection will likely be ongoing ahead of the upper trough during the morning, particularly from eastern New York into New England. While this activity is likely to inhibit afternoon destabilization, strong wind fields will still promote some risk for damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado. The strongest activity will develop by early afternoon along the cold front and progress eastward. Bowing segments and marginal supercell structures will be possible. The strong low-level jet will be shifting eastward during the day, but portions of New England will still have strong 850 mb winds during the early/mid afternoon. If sufficient heating occurs, this is where the tornado risk will be marginally greater.

That’s just the first wave. There were legit winds back in Iowa but the afternoon stuff should pop in a few hours.

G64 at Galveston Island!

On the board! Flash flooding is still the biggest risk in the southeast from Arthur.

Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 The low pressure area near the Middle Texas coast has produced sustained convection well to the east of its center this morning. A 1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak classification indicated enough convective organization to designate the system as a sheared tropical cyclone. Within the past hour or two, buoy observations and a ship report have indicated tropical-storm-force winds occurring within this convection. Additionally, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigating the storm found peak 850-mb flight-level winds up to 52 kt, which also suggest this system has reached tropical storm intensity. Based on these findings, the system is designated as Tropical Storm Arthur with an intensity of 35 kt. Arthur is starting to accelerate northeastward (045/8 kt) within strengthening southwesterly flow associated with a low- to mid-level trough. There are no significant changes to the track forecast reasoning, with a faster northeastward motion expected today that will move the center of the system along or over the Texas coast today and then farther inland over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana by tonight. With no major changes to the track guidance this cycle, the updated NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one. Given the unrelenting westerly shear and Arthur's close proximity to land, it seems unlikely that much additional strengthening will occur. The tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the eastern semicircle and mainly occurring over the offshore waters. Arthur will likely maintain its intensity while it remains over water, and then weaken by tonight once it moves inland. Global model fields indicate it will open into a trough soon thereafter, and although a 24-h forecast point is included mainly for continuity purposes, Arthur should dissipate before that time. There is still a signal in the global models for low pressure development over the western Atlantic late this week or this weekend as remnant vorticity from Arthur emerge off the Southeast U.S. coast. The exact nature of this low remains unclear, so we will continue to monitor model trends to evaluate the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding remain the primary hazard with this system. Based on recent observations, the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward along the Upper Texas coast to High Island. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding are likely through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle, with possible flooding near the Upper Texas coast. Ongoing heavy rainfall could prolong the flood threat into the weekend. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Upper Texas and Louisiana coasts today from High Island to Morgan City where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 28.6N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 30.0N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 31.9N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

I think so. From what I’ve seen AI has done very well with broader steering and genesis window forecasting at medium and longer range. Less so with intensity but Melissa was a win last season.

There is a very weak wind shift right off the Texas coast per recon. Unclear if that’s enough for an upgrade but it might be.

Will just say that AI has been really promising with regard to tropical forecasting. Exceptional actually, imo.