TauntonBlizzard2013

This gfs is probably going to be the worst run we’ve seen in a while.

Still a non event. Like will just said. We’re finding every different way to turn this into nothing. Seems like each rub oscillates between burying for energy and a worse northern stream. Cant improve both in any of these runs

As I said earlier. Maybe some Flakes in the air and someone scores an inch west from the northern stream. The phase/ southern stream portion of this is completely dead, In my opinion. The gfs got schooled by the Euro

Not even close enough to offer some false hope

The northern stream looking better probably opens up the possibility of a nuisance inch or two even if the southern stream completely craps out. Probably would favor south and west though

This has turned into a 0 return hobby

I’m taking a backseat on this one, because I’m tired of the “ if variable A,B, and C change and do X,Y, and Z then the storm might hit!” Talk. It’s become exhausting. It’s not even about discussing what the model actually shows. However, the all or nothing scenario seems most likely to me. It’s either going to phase and tuck, or miss the phase or phase too late and be way out to sea.

Meh it gets shunted East and has already maxed out over the mid Atlantic. I think the desperation is making people hallucinate more positive results

Not even close for us

Congrats to the mid Atlantic

Seems like that energy is going to get left behind on the 0z gfs. i wouldn’t hold my breath for anything big on this run. Cant string any positive runs or trends together. One step forward, two steps back

Which is why it’s unlikely this one happens.

Gross, going to be hard to correct that at a short lead

Good time for the can kicking meme

People aren’t going to like this run, not surprising

I mentioned this last night. I think people are desperate for an event (I get it) and have latched onto the very few OP run solutions that have shown an event. Too many moving parts for my liking. You need to phase in a precise window. I’d put the probability of a big event probably under 10%

Is this actually true though? Seems like models are picking up on the energy lagging today, which would make sense.

This run isn’t going to do it. here we go. Bad start to 12z. Era of what can go wrong, will.

Kind of disagree on that. With the few big solutions we’ve seen, it’s looked good down that way, maybe even better than up here because of the better structure and dynamics

The airmass isn’t great, but it’s not putrid. Id take anything at this point. I’ll roll the dice with precip type issues to get a decent event

This is a week out and we are talking about a small window for this to phase to bring an appreciable event to this area. I think it’s asking a lot to have any sort of confidence in that type of accuracy before like Thursday. I think the odds on favorite is a missed phase at this point. A lot needs to go right, and there is a reason the ensembles are mediocre and we’ve only seen a few OP hits. Canadian also wants nothing to do with this, so it seems like people are completing tossing guidance that doesn’t have a storm

This is still a full week away. It’s best to have very low expectations until probably Thursday or Friday. 6z euro is a nice dose of reality

The reality is, we’ve had very few runs of any model that produce a good event

I’d roll the dice with that honestly. Might be issues for a bit but still a lot of snow.

Figures it’ll be cold and bare ground for weeks on end and as soon as the storm shows we get precip type issues. Whatever, gotta roll the dice at some point here or we are headed towards another rat regardless