schoeppeya

Givin the current forward speed we are only about 3 hours from the outer edges of the eyewall impacting land. Seems early.

I am impressed with how the eye has centered itself within the convection given the shear

Agreed. At least to this point, the degraded IR presentation looks to be more from an ERWC than from shear blasting the core. As others have pointed out, the models that degrade the storm rapidly basically dissipate the southern half of the storm due to dry air and looking at lower level water vapor imagery im just not seeing the dry air to the south of the storm for shear to push in yet. I also don’t see how this doesn’t make landfall significantly earlier than it looked last night

What exactly are the decreasing threats? This is still a 155 mph cat 4 that is right on track with intensity expectations and encountering shear as has been widely discussed for 48 hours. It may well end up weaker then expected but high end impacts are baked in at this point

Those supercells that are offshore are going to be a really, really bad situation.

Eye coming into view on the key west radar

I don’t know how much to value it but just for trend it’s basically steady state on intensity between now and landfall

Yeah have to think the next 10-12 hours are the best remaining window of higher water temps and lowish shear. Should be solidly over the loop current now

Does like maybe the beginnings of a new outer eyewall/secondary wind max as well?

Literally rides the northern side of Tampa Bay as well

18z HAFS B initialized about 35 mb too high

Don't be sorry, I am wrong all the time! ETA: I measured and youre right its pretty stable in size right now

The eye is really contracting again... I wonder if we will see another EWRC and intensification phase while conditions are still very favorable tonight into tomorrow morning

Almost perfect IR presentation again. I don't think we will get there but just given the overall look I wouldn't be shocked if we make a run at yesterdays numbers.

HAFS-B still wants to ride the north side of the bay but the hurricane models are becoming outliers on that at this point