schoeppeya

Was definitely low ratio, fine sand snow here as well.

Yeah the issue with that is at 10:1 that would have still had me at .43"qpf and I have a quarter of that.

I have a screenshot of the most recent HRRR run at 7 this morning still showing 9” for Tulsa and I have MAYBE 1” on the ground at my house. As frustrating as it is for someone who loves big weather events, it’s one of the reasons I love it so much. As much as people want to think we have it figured out, there’s always reminders like this that Mother Nature will still do what she wants. .

Not going to drone on about it anymore but this is the worst modeling bust inside of 12 hours I can remember outside of a severe weather bust or two. Radar estimates have me at .1” QPF which is 1/4 the lowest amount any model had me at even as if 06z this morning. .

Finally moderate to heavy snow here, hopefully can squeeze a couple inches out of it.

Ill own it, and it won't be the first time its felt like I have singlehandedly jinxed a big event

Absolutely classic that we immediately started trending away from the high end solutions after this post

The CAMS are still very insistent that we get to 3-5" in Tulsa so guess we will see... I'd feel pretty good if I was in NWA/SW Mo still

We aren't even close to an inch yet in Tulsa, at this point I don't know if we are going to get enough to even take the kids sledding.

HRRR has it filling in very quickly over the next hour or two

Same. I don't want to jump the gun on calling a bust but im starting to feel like we would be lucky to get 6" in Tulsa. We are still getting freezing rain on the south side of town so still pretty ugly regardless.

Pretty unbelievable, I'm in Bixby and we have been getting freezing rain for a few hours and you couldn't pay me enough money to get out on the roads right now.

I dont know that moods soured but the short term trends arent QUITE as favorable as after the 18z suite

Notable reduction in QPF on a lot of the 0z models right after the increase on the 18z runs

I think you could draw a rough oval from independence to tulsa to mountain home to springfield to pittsburg and say anyone inside that could is looking at 8-12"+ depending on where the heaviest bands verify.