schoeppeya

True kiss of death on a return to colder pattern is the cold air in Canada getting washed out, dont see any signs as of now.

Not possible, I was told it was a foregone conclusion that the PV was going to be strong by mid month and we were going to torch.

I must have missed where somebody did that?

Acting like a forecast for 2+ weeks into the future is a foregone conclusion is insane. Think its fair to post a forecast that might show things trending differently than they are being shown now.

Was definitely low ratio, fine sand snow here as well.

Yeah the issue with that is at 10:1 that would have still had me at .43"qpf and I have a quarter of that.

I have a screenshot of the most recent HRRR run at 7 this morning still showing 9” for Tulsa and I have MAYBE 1” on the ground at my house. As frustrating as it is for someone who loves big weather events, it’s one of the reasons I love it so much. As much as people want to think we have it figured out, there’s always reminders like this that Mother Nature will still do what she wants. .

Not going to drone on about it anymore but this is the worst modeling bust inside of 12 hours I can remember outside of a severe weather bust or two. Radar estimates have me at .1” QPF which is 1/4 the lowest amount any model had me at even as if 06z this morning. .

Finally moderate to heavy snow here, hopefully can squeeze a couple inches out of it.

Ill own it, and it won't be the first time its felt like I have singlehandedly jinxed a big event

Absolutely classic that we immediately started trending away from the high end solutions after this post

The CAMS are still very insistent that we get to 3-5" in Tulsa so guess we will see... I'd feel pretty good if I was in NWA/SW Mo still

We aren't even close to an inch yet in Tulsa, at this point I don't know if we are going to get enough to even take the kids sledding.

HRRR has it filling in very quickly over the next hour or two

Same. I don't want to jump the gun on calling a bust but im starting to feel like we would be lucky to get 6" in Tulsa. We are still getting freezing rain on the south side of town so still pretty ugly regardless.