bristolri_wx

Leave at 5 or 6 AM. You will hit snow rather than ZR at the end of your in trip in NYS, at least if the HRRR is true. 18z NAM is a little slower with the snow/sleet/ice.

It is not a good model... sell...

That was the joke - Jerimoth is RI's Mount Washington. I believe Mt. Jefferson is the second or third highest mountain in NH.

Haven't seen the ARPEGE mentioned here in a while since the Euro maps were made more freely available, lol.

630 Feet! That's like the RI equivalent of Mt Jefferson.

The ensembles show this - some moderation and then another cool down in early March with a favorable 500 mb setup for some storminess. Not sure why anyone would see the “back broken” or a long term below normal temps. It’s neither, which is the type of pattern that is more likely to get us a bigger storm than the other two.

The best part of waking up…

The snow would have been good. But the models lost it somehow.

It does seem to have gotten a little crazy in here. At least from my perspective, it's been a good winter. It's been cold, it's snowed, and we've had snow pack for weeks. In East Bay RI that's a rarity, compared to other parts of New England. It will be a little disappointing if we don't get another decent storm before things wind down, but putting things in perspective, it's been the best winter in 10 years here, even if we didn't get a truly big storm between now and when spring truly arrives. As for the next few weeks there will be chances based on the ensembles, but chances are better off away from the coastal plain. Nothing new for this time of the year. As long as we have cold nearby there's chances something will work out, and thankfully Canada has been helpful with their cold exports this year compared to the last few winters.

When Keeping It Real Goes Wrong (like this thread)

Ugh these maps are terrible... I'd rather see 384 hour op run blizzards and torches.

That map could verify with +1 departures and another foot of snow on the ground. Junk!

I think about 4.5” here. Bristol was on the edge of that band for a few hours before it finally rotated east. A nice fresh coat of white paint.

Large heavy cotton balls falling out of the sky here. Heaviest stuff so far!

Your facts are truthful but your tone is frigging annoying AF. Also heavier stuff is moving east through RI now. This system was always advertised as a winner/loser scenario, with narrow bands of very good snow growth, with mostly meh everywhere else, and the type of stuff that isn't modeled well. Enjoy what you have, this winter has been 10 times better than the last several in RI!!!

Congrats Albuquerque?

There will be another relaxation. It makes sense. It would be harder for one not for one to occur... patterns only last so long in our area.

Sure. However that wasn't the context I was going for. 384 hour weenie maps were being posted with doom and gloom comments! While any weather scenario is always on the table, basing an opinion on a forecast outcome on that particular data set was quite silly. That's my point. If we are looking at a 5 day forecast for it to be bone dry, then it's definitely a very possible forecast and weather outcome. Cold air is around. There will be chances that aren't even showing up in the models. They may not work out but there will be trackable systems over the next few weeks.

I'm so confused?? Last time I checked in we were getting no meaningful snow or precipitation until April? Isn't that what those 384 HR OP runs were showing???

Nothing brings on snow more than no snow in the long range ensemble runs! Seriously, as long as it’s cold, there’s a chance something materializes. I would be more worried if they were showing relaxation like earlier in January, which they not look to be, just moderation of a very anomalous cold pattern. Euro weeklies still look decent in terms of pattern, and they have been pretty good this winter in terms of general 500mb conditions/outcomes…

And some freezing of Narragansett Bay… it’s been a while.

Deep winter in Colt State Park in Bristol.

150 miles north west and this board would still be interested... shit happens... pivotal-weather-ecmwf_full-700hv-nwatl.mp4

Nope, no interesting weather to discuss in this topic 6 days out... shit happens... sometimes the margin of error ends up being a big deal. On to the next threat... G19_sector_eus_GEOCOLOR_240fr_20260201-0914.mp4

Expected snowfall: 0.0"