bristolri_wx
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Posts posted by bristolri_wx
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24 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:
I'd side with your logic. There are a couple mitigating factors in my mind. There is the background "winter" that we have been having in SNE that's been warmer then normal and we also don't have any snowpack to speak of in SNE which would have helped facilitate the SLP sliding along that denseer cold.
Are we really having a warmer than normal winter? We definitely have less snow, but I attribute that to $hit pattern/bad luck than above normal temps... I remember warmer winters where we have had more snow by this point.
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1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:
It looked really bad at the beginning stages but appears to have trended SE with the track. Still on the warmer side of things.
GFS definitely starting to catch on that it can't ram that surface low up into that cold press as others have been alluding too. It's still not sure what to do earlier in the run...
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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:
GFS is a terrible model. Completely on an island now....for two runs in a row. I don't think there is a single OP model agreeing with it now. Even the obscure WWII models.
Now I know where my NWS forecast is coming from... can't trust the Government F!@#$% Shutdown model at the moment...
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I know I'm not getting 2' of snow, but I have a hard time believing the NWS forecast for Bristol, RI at the moment... are they just using the GFS? 46 and heavy rain...
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Just now, NeonPeon said:
Bristol normally doubles our snowfall in these liminal situation, so you could well be right. If you think 6-12 is a fair bet for you, I'd say we'd be at 3-6. I'll take the low end.
This sort of detail is very premature. But this whole thing is not a great look for the coast.
Agreed, this is the way many of these storms go. We're smack dab in the legendary snow hole that always shows up, for whatever reason. It's going to be a lot of slop for sure, but thankfully it's just not just rain like previous have been.
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16 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:
3" then 2" of rain during prime winter... meanwhile I've had 3 colds and now the flu. I may remember this winter for the wrong reasons the way it is going.
I think we'll do better than that in East Bay, RI. 6-12" with sleet mixing would be a safe call. Maybe closer to 6" due to more sleet would be safer for Newport. I don't think this storm has a lot of rain in it for us.
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11” total in Bristol. If the first 6” was a higher ratio rather than cement we would have been over a foot.
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16 minutes ago, henry1978 said:
I can't figure out why wpri 12-15 miles to your north on the Seekonk/east pvd state line is only reporting 5-6.
Because they have 5-6”, and I have 9”. Probably wasn’t in the good band this morning as long. I was already at 5-6” by 10 AM.
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26 minutes ago, henry1978 said:
Disagree. Lots of models had all of eastern rhode island getting hammered. East PVD at the top of the bay only has 5-6 inches and Narragansett 10 miles to your south really got porked.
I’m at 9” in Bristol. Unusually, we were in a good band for a while. Picking up again too. Confident we can get close to a foot here.
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1 minute ago, NeonPeon said:
It's a sweet antidote to the last one, that's for sure. You should sail past a foot.
Yes the heavy band have been over us most of the morning. May have lost an inch to melting bottom layer is very slushy.
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5” snow in Bristol. Heavy snow right now...
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4 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:
DO NOT LOOK AT THE HRRR.
Save the anguish just look out the window. Be happy with what you get!It has occasional hiccup runs as well let’s see if it’s a trend.
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Stayed up this late, mind as well wait for the Euro.
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12 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:
I still think I get under a foot with higher amounts in every direction. I won't b**ch if so, but let's not pretend everyone doesn't have some threshold. It's less justifiable in areas that are spinning the wheel of banding.
I think you get over a foot on this one, which is always impressive down in Newport.
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Are we looking at slightly less (maybe an inch or two off of projected totals) because this is falling during the day in the middle of March?
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5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:
Yet they don't include Boston and Providence
Boston and Providence already had Winter Storm Watches posted earlier. These are new watches for areas that didn’t have them earlier.
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Not used to hearing "heaviest snow amounts continue towards eastern RI and Narragansett Bay." Holy cow game on.
Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT
in New England
Posted
All joking aside, I'm 40 and I feel that my adult life has been much snowier than my childhood ever was. And I've been interested in weather since a very young age. If the cause is cyclical, or GW, there's definitely been a difference in the last 20 years, especially with the number bigger storms of 12+... Of course this observation is anecdotal and judged by my location in RI...