bristolri_wx

Light snow mixing with sleet and rain at times. About 1” on the ground. 33 degrees.

At least BOX is finally mentioning it in their discussion.

Live by the NAM, die by the NAM. LOL...

Moderate snow in Bristol, RI since 3PM, sticking to the grassy areas. 32.

I know this isn’t the observation thread, but moderate snow has started here in Bristol two hours earlier than BOX mentioned in their latest discussion. Temp has dropped as well with the onset of snow. Wouldn’t surprise me this storm continues to do things not forecasted by most.

The fact there is that much discrepancy with in one hour of runs shows how useless it is at that range, unfortunately.

Wow, still a lot of model variation less than 24 hrs out. Impressive.

Argh I saw the error of my ways. DELETED.

True. Hard to believe either considering there is such a discrepancy between them out to hour 60. We should be able to believe that the 3K is more accurate because it's higher resolution, but, it's still the NAM.

That 3K NAM map is misleading - the 12K NAM has a huge chunk of precipitation occurring between hours 60 and 72 over eastern New England. So we should start being able to compare by the 6Z run early Sunday AM...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but overall, trends have been better for most folks today? Even those south of the Pike - yes it doesn't look favorable for much, BUT, we're talking about shifts of 25 miles on where the reforming low tracks that would make all the difference in getting the warmth out of the midlevels. I'm still expecting 2" of slop at my house but there's still a lot to be positive about for a snowstorm on 12/1. Definitely an entertaining first storm of the year for SNE, regardless of outcome.

Keep in mind the version on Tropical Tidbits only goes out 54 HRS. Other model sites may have it out farther.

18Z RGEM

18Z HDRPS

Those of us here in RI south of Providence are used to getting less snow than anyone else regardless of where the low sets up or what the model output is.

Looks like it will be a decent event north and west of a line from New Haven -> Providence -> Plymouth. Expecting 2" total in my backyard. We'll see how it goes.

Took a nice drive today through Burrilville, RI and Douglas, MA. Blackstone River Valley area is definitely close to peak - even with last weeks wind blowing down a lot of leaves.

Had some very big gusts a little after midnight. Power flashed on and off a few times, then we lost power. Looks like half the town is out here. Calmed down for a few minutes, gusts are picking back up again.

How accurate are the Euro wind gust maps over at weather.us? Looks nasty for RI and SE MA. 25-50 MPH+ gusts for over 48 hours if you believe them. Old school October nor’easter - just anecdotal but I remember several of these types of storms in the late 80’s early 90’s when I was in my early teens...

Euro has been inching its way northwest as well as it moves towards New England. Just an interesting trend over the last four runs - still doesn’t seem likely to get anything other than fringe effects from the storm.

This is a really interesting discussion on a hot summer's day. I wonder if there is any correlation between the above normal SST's of the Gulf Stream about 250 miles to the southeast of us, and the generally observed increase in seasonal snow amounts since the late 90's? SST's have been consistently running 2-5 degrees celsius above normal in this area since late 1996 according to the SST anomaly maps located here: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/ At this point it makes you wonder if it's even an anomaly anymore if it's been running above normal for over 20 years. I would imagine that the above normal SST's have an influence on cyclone strength and other aspects of our weather year round. Maybe this could also partially explain why ratters aren't nearly as ratty as they used to be. Perhaps just one piece of the puzzle... Overall I'm inclined to believe that the warming SST's in the Arctic and lesser amounts of polar ice will have a profound effect on our weather, especially in the winter. Whether it's a short term, or long term pattern shift, our winters seem to be back loaded into February and March more years than not, and I (anecdotally) feel that we have more swings between above normal and below normal temperatures thanks to these kinks and bulges in the jet stream that researchers are starting to feel are caused by the warmer temps up in the Arctic.

This should work for now (just checked it) until you get out of range. I think CoD lets you download a .gif of the loop... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BOX-N0Q-1-200

Yeah I probably should have gone out and measured my usual spot at around 4 but couldn't get myself up and out of the house to do it. I checked NWS numbers it looks like I ended up an inch higher than what was reported in my area so who knows. Sometimes these heavy slop storms are more difficult to measure than the windy ones if you don't put 100% effort into it.

About 7" on the ground here. Heavy heavy stuff. I would imagine I probably have closer to 8" or 9" before compaction from the sleet and rain we had between 4 and 5 AM. Man if we didn't have that hour of mixing I feel confident we would have been in double-digits around here.