bristolri_wx

Hmmm, no track adjustments yet from NHC… surprised considering how many models moved east later last night and this morning. It’s hard to bet against the GFS and Euro when they are close to being in the same camp….

Euro scrapes E LI at HR 42 and takes it into central CT. Looks like it moved about 25-50 miles east this run... strength about the same.

Euro looks a pinch east and a little slower through HR 24...

True, but often they have an update at around 10:30-ish...

Gee, no forecast discussion at BOX tonight... last one was at 7:15 PM...

You called it. Canadian same thing. 12z was over NYC, 0z over Westerly RI. That's about 150 miles lol...

That's about 50-75 miles east of previous run...

Seems a little early to draw that conclusion...

Let's look at facts in play: - We're now within 48 hours of landfall, so modeling should be improving in general. - That cut-off low west of Henri is now forming and no longer "theoretical" and is probably now better sampled from observation data. - We have multiple recon flights into Henri ingesting data into the models. The only thing probably not sampled as well is the ridge/blocking to the east of Henri. While nothing is ever certain, I think it's fair to say that @40/70 Benchmark is correct in the assumption that the west trend is ending and maybe overdone by some of the models and the correction is underway. Central to eastern CT is probably where landfall will occur, maybe a chance it gets as far as Westerly or Charlestown RI. While we need to see the Euro to be sure, probably just some "wobbles" or "blips" going forward on the major models and you'll probably see the crap models that are taking it into NJ and NYC correct farther east.

Waterford FTW on the GFS...

Yup GFS gonna be east as well. Consistently 5mb to 8mb weaker than 18z run also.

They probably don't heavily weigh their forecasts on it either. The 18Z ensembles were a little west of the previous track, and that may have been accounted for in the 11PM update. I'm interested in what the GFS does at 0z. If it's east then I'm betting the Euro will be as well, and NHC will update at 2AM or 5AM accordingly.

3K was also east vs 18z... but not by much...

Looks like NAM is making landfall over South County RI...

Probably more of a cheeseburger with a small fry. But not a Big Mac or a Whopper.

Looks like a toss. The entire 48 hour run the HRRR never gets winds above what are already actually being recorded right now... doesn't seem to jive with all the other modeling...

Significantly weaker... not sure how much value the long range HRRR has (probably similar to the NAM).... but... another model with an eastward trend... it also initialized poorly....

Does the west trend stop? Does Henri “shuffle” east? Who gets whacked, New York or New Haven? Can anyone trust the NAM? This and more tonight on AMWX (Queue breaking news music…)

He has really gone to crap since his accuweather days… sad…

I would only trust the NAM for a TC in the scenario of “models trending west can models trending east” count. Other than that not very useful and too erratic.

Definitely a storm surge up the bay alignment... thankfully the hurricane barrier is still functional for Providence... other areas without a barrier not as lucky...

HWRF is east... landfall is at Watch Hill, RI... continues NW trajectory into CT... huge difference from HMON lol...