bristolri_wx

Nice to see more Rhode Islander’s on the forum. We can all ensure the pain of the snow hole together. LOL...

This is what last winter and the pandemic has done to us!

I don’t think anyone is “wishcasting” here at moment: https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/massachusetts/snow-depth-in/20201217-1800z.html Switch between the models available and tell us which one sticks out like a sore thumb? The evidence points right now that the GFS isn’t seeing something the other globals are, including the ICON.

Hey that’s improvement! It was cutting over Michigan a few runs ago. A few more days it will be off the North Carolina coast before it slings back to Minnesota.

We have had snow storms where the GFS does this 8 runs in a row, and hasn’t come around until it’s already snowing LOL. Of course this could be the solution but it’s in the minority of guidance at the moment.

Does anyone ever look at the 768 HR CFS on Pivotal Weather? Just curious if it's useful for anything. I know the surface/qpf stuff would be useless, but wondering if upper air, 850 temps, is even in the ballpark on the long range....

This thing is moving fast. I think 12" south of the pike until you get really close to the south coast of MA and RI seems more reasonable regardless of snowfall map output. To get more you're gonna need really high ratios. Maybe that happens, but I wouldn't expect to see accurate modeling of those kinds of ratios this far out.

Just flipped to large wet flakes (where I am) at Rhode Island College in Providence, which is on the NW side of the city..

Delayed opening because of snow at Santa’s Village??? Is Rudolph out of town???

Definitely better than expected here. Plus this is the type of rainstorm that really helps - light to moderate over a couple of days, not too much run off or flooding, drizzle in between showers. Maximum drought busting efficiency!

Yeah geez what a poor showing for modeling if this is the outcome. This type of waffling for precipitation outcomes shouldn’t be happening in the 72 hour window...

Never believed that output in the first place. Through Tuesday evening old GFS, new GFS, Euro, ICON, NAM are all in the .50 to 1.00" range for SNE still... Unless I'm looking at the wrong maps. Still wiggle room too. Some of the runs last night had less than a quarter inch of rain during yesterdays runs before they went deluge for a few runs...

The Euro shows Delta turning on the faucet for SENE.

https://floridaman.com

NHC:

Wow - the official NHC forecast track hasn't shifted for us in 24 hours. Go look at forecast 14A (2PM Fri), and that path is almost the exactly the same as the path at 18A (2PM today). Sure the models are going to keep moving the jackpot of precip at every model run, but we're talking about swings of a couple of hundred miles based in minor variations each run. You blend them together and right now most of us are getting at least 2" of rain, with pockets of 4", and that's been pretty steady over the last 24 hours as well - and much of that is coming well ahead of the "eye" of the storm. Looks like we'll be getting a pretty good rainstorm, with the intensity of a moderate nor'easter for those that end up on the eastern side of the eye, if anyone ends up there. I'm sticking to that until something shows me otherwise. Obviously LF in Florida changes things, but that hasn't happened yet, and if it does, it's going to give us plenty of time to adjust the forecast. There was never a consistent signal that this was going to be a strong storm/hurricane up in SNE once we got into the timeframe where the tropical models could provide forecasts for our area...

6z HWRF(s) and HMON both have this making landfall on the SC/NC border, staying inland for a bit then re-emerging and heading NE into New England. Not disliking that track, gets us the rain we need without a ton of damaging wind... seems like Euro op is on its own at the moment.

I live in coastal RI. Any trickery for us would be appreciated.

Yup missed out on everything here. Looking at the radar loop almost everywhere in RI got at least a fast moving shower out of it except my area - barely a trace. Glad I watered the garden earlier! Now in the dry slot...

Why? Do you enjoy ball sweat that much???

I looked at the radar, the NAM, and HRRR, and proceeded to go outside and water the garden. Not expecting much rain here at this point. Could have used it!

I think the question becomes, do you want a weather forum to become social media, with all the vitriol that goes along with it? It looked like things were getting personal at the end. Sometimes you're better off not knowing the political leanings of your online "friends", so you can just banter about the weather and enjoy it. To keep my post on topic - seems like QPF is down across the board for most of eastern New England on all the 00z models. Only the 12K nam gives any areas more than an inch east of the CT river... was hoping this could be a nice soaker for the garden...

I was wondering the same thing. Anti-virus?

Did the 18z initialize with all the recon info? I have the feeling 00z might be a better indicator as all that information recorded will be fully ingested along with proper center coordinates.