bristolri_wx

Newport is forecasted at 6-8". I think 4-7" is more realistic. It will stick as rates increase... give it time... but no one predicted 8-12" that close to the coast...

You know the GFS is on drugs when I'm in a jackpot zone...

You're in a great spot in RI for snow in general. I have friends in Cumberland and they always get more than me in almost any type of event.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/

BOX discussion is very bullish on the front end thump - hence the increase in the maps despite some mixing being forecast.

Way up compared to this morning.

I think 4-8” is a good call for most in the coastal plain except for right at the coast/cape, etc. Considering the preceding air mass it’s going to be unlikely that mix line gets as far NW as modeled before the precip lets up. As usual with 90% of storms we thread the needle...

Took the dog for a walk, about 2-3” on the ground. Light snow but occasionally moderate. Probably could have been a little more but we had mixed with sleet and graupel at times a little earlier this evening...

Sleeting in Portsmouth/Middletown/Newport

Definitely a northward trend for that second event on the Euro OP last 4 runs. Doubt this turns into a big event for us... probably a SNE scraper with a sharp cutoff. Something is better than nothing though!

Isn't the "long range" HRRR going to eventually replace the NAM? Thought I had read that somewhere a while back...

Ugh what a great setup for snow except for the fact there isn't much cold air around. How may close-to-the-benchmark storms are we gonna get where we have this rotten airmass to the north. At least it's not a cutter.

Is today‘a storm really a “grinch” storm? Yeah it’s raining, but there’s no snow on the ground, and it’s not that warm. Sure it’s not snow but feels more like a regular ole winter rain storm for the coastal plain, which we get often, then something I would associate as a “grinch” ruining the season storm. Maybe it’s just me on this one...

55. Snow is gone except for piles/drifts...

Euro has cutters on Christmas, 12/29, and 1/2. Though that 1/2 storm is looking like it wants to reform a low at the coast but right now it's reforming it right on top of us...

Ugh this is gonna be a mess down here. There’s only a couple of inches of snow left here so it will melt quickly. Not looking forward to a “Silent Night” because there’s no power... I guess howling winds will prevent it from being totally silent. Happy Holidays!

Nothing should be burned in my opinion. It’s just computer guidance. It’s why humans still make “real” weather forecasts. Sure the snowfall and QPF maps can be misleading but they are useful in making a forecast. All the different maps help you form a final forecast. This is why I have great respect for meteorologists who have gone through years of school and then have the historic knowledge on top when making forecasts. As hobbyists we screw up more because we don’t have the training and experience (though many here make excellent forecasts on a consistent basis). Maybe I’m just jaded at this point because of geographic location, but busts are busts and you move on to the next event. Even when I’m stuck in a snow hole, I’m always more interested as to what’s caustic going it, than being angered or distressed by it. 8-12” in NYC isn’t bad this time of year. They should have gone with that from the outset rather than the 12-18”. Many here were suspicious of high totals near the coastal areas, even down that way. Climo always plays a role!

LOL nice snow band moving through as a grand finale. It’s cold now so it’s sticking again. This storm delivered even though we ended up on low end of guidance here.

Been moderate snow here again for the last hour or so. Probably picked up about 2” since 8 AM.

Snow picking up again here. So is the wind...

Just finished shoveling about 6” of wet cement. So it was probably about 8” before compaction and sleet mixing. Inch of slush at the bottom. Not too shabby for December here. Maybe we can grab another inch or two in the next few hours.

That may have compacted overnight. I was in the 6-8” range earlier overnight. Thankful it never really fully changed to rain or sleet here in Bristol. Of course as usual most of the heavy stuff stayed north of here after the first few bands went through.

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 425 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Winter storm continues to affect Southern New England early this morning. Regional radar shows west to east oriented bands of heavy snow, which have reportedly produced snowfall rates up to 2 inches per hour at times, now beginning to lift north of the Mass Pike. Water vapor imagery shows a dryslot on the southern end of the cyclone`s 700 mb circulation (this feature over east-central PA), and this dry slot is racing northeast from Long Island into a part of southern CT/RI. In a nowcasting sense, this dryslot has led to brief improvement in visibility (1/2 to 1 SM) across Hartford to Willimantic CT to central/southern RI eastward into southeast MA, with sleet at times mixing in. Speaking to temperatures, a coastal front has set up from roughly Beverly to Norwood to North Smithfield with ENE winds. Temps have been very slowly but steadily warming east of this front; with most areas in Norfolk, Plymouth and Bristol Counties hovering around 33-34F; upper 20s to around 30F into the Boston area and up into the North Shore. More northerly winds in the interior on the west side of the front has led to temperatures commonly in the upper teens to low 20s! We continue to have multiple weather-related concerns specific to this winter storm. Accumulating snowfall is one of them. Rapidly falling temperatures and a related flash freeze of snow/slush is looking likely later this morning across South Shore into southeastern MA. This may extend as far north as the Boston metro area, potentially affecting I-95/Route 128 and the Southeast Expressway. Strong northeast winds and minor coastal flooding are other concerns. Our surface low, a sub-1000 mb low just off the NJ coast, will continue to pull NE into the waters near the Islands by late- AM/early-PM, then move into the southern Gulf of Maine later in the day today. The 700 mb cyclone will continue to progress eastward into northern CT/western MA on into interior northern New England. On the snow accumulation forecast: I`ve made only small adjustments. The most significant of these changes was a reduction in snow totals from Windham County CT ENE across much of RI and into eastern and southeast MA by about 1-2". Much of these same areas should still see values nearing 1 foot, but the dryslot moving in may keep these areas from achieving foot-plus levels. On the other side, I`ve boosted snow totals across northwest and northern MA as deformation- zone banding on the northern end of the 700 mb low now across eastern PA looks to advance into these areas. Snow totals here were increased by a couple inches, mainly north and west of a Springfield to Worcester to Bedford line. Some of these areas from the east slopes of the Berkshires into the Route 2 corridor may see accumulations nearing 20". The forecast otherwise remains essentially unchanged. For a large part of Southern New England, snow intensity for today should be more of a steady light to moderate intensity. The exceptions are for the aforementioned northwest/northern MA area, with a secondary local maximum hinted at by the 00z HREF, NAM and GFS across the North Shore, Merrimack Valley into part of Metro Boston mid-morning into the early afternoon. For this secondary area, I am thinking that snow intensity may struggle to get to heavy levels especially by late morning as moisture in the snow growth region becomes unsaturated per NAM/RAP fcst soundings. Snow should taper off in interior MA, CT and RI by around mid-day, and by mid afternoon towards eastern MA. Periods of ocean effect snow showers may continue to affect Cape Cod and parts of coastal Plymouth County until evening, but the heaviest of the snows will have ended. On the flash freeze potential: as winds flip to N and NW by mid to late this morning, upper teens to mid 20s temperatures now in the interior will surge southeast. This leads to the potential for a rapid freeze-up of slush and snow, with highest confidence of this occurring across Bristol, Plymouth and Norfolk Counties where current temperatures are above freezing. Temps are very close to freezing in Suffolk County/Boston area that there is the potential for such even into Boston, but the better potential looks to be just south. On strong/gusty winds: High wind watch continues for the Islands until 10 AM. It is still quite gusty out on the islands, but damaging winds haven`t materialized. There may still be another window of opportunity for gusts to increase. Gusts to 30-45 mph will also continue across coastal MA, with gusts in the interior up to 30 mph. This will lead to blowing and drifting of snow.

Windy down here. Tough to take an actual measurement with drifting but I’m going to estimate 7-8”. Mostly light snow now with some sleet or icy snow mixing at times - can hear it hitting the house.