bristolri_wx

I work in IT so 75% all my posting is done from a 13” MacBook Pro docked to a nice high res display - but that’s only because I’m in front of it 8-12 hours a day. However posting from a mobile device isn’t nearly as bad as it used to be thanks to the forum upgrades. Even the model sites really aren’t to bad on a large phone display. And you have RadarScope as well. In 2021 you can have the best of both worlds and not be too handicapped using one or the other…

On the drive down to Newport it got as high as 57 at the crest of the Mt Hope Bridge... 49 in Newport...

50 here. We had a couple of inches left on the ground last night, it’s almost all gone now… back to bare ground.

Would like to have been in that heavy band for a little longer than an hour. Around 5” on the ground here... at least there was no mixing today.

Getting back into the good bands here now. Hopefully it stays for a while. The good ole snow hole made a visit for a few hours LOL...

Less because of the bay and more because we are stuck between two bands that aren’t moving much, but sucks none the less...

BOX cut back a little...

"The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organization supported by most of the nations of Europe" -Wikipedia. Yes, not a branch of the EU. But we can still do better. We know how the ebbs and flows of politics have affected NOAA the last 10-20 years... but you are 100% correct in your response. The reason why humans interpret models and predict weather is because models aren't perfect, even as they improve and gain resolution.

The GFS outputs for the entire globe. Why does NCEP care that much about a margin of error of 50 miles on a storm in such a small geographic area? Not making excuses here, it's just that New England snowfall accuracy in the coastal plain is just one of millions of chaotic events going on at any given time that the models need to predict. That being said, if the US put the same resources into weather modeling like the ECMWF does, we would be better for it. We used to be the best at this, and we no longer are.

I would still trust the 3K Nam more than the extended range HRRR, though it's getting better.

Ugh - yup my bad! I looked at 2/7 date but didn't look at the time. (00:00 UTC is right now lol). Grrr... but my comment still applies to the "snow depth" model maps overall. I've never found them to be as accurate as the forecasted snowfall maps when you compare them side by side. I know the depth models try to compensate for compression and melting if applicable...

These modeled depth maps don't seem to reflect the weather... weather.us has them for a number of models as well and they don't often correlate with the actual snowfall conditions. Then they 'update' themselves after a storm and they make more sense.

This has been 14 pages of pure entertainment for a storm that may not materialize.

Looks like the dry slot is moving into RI and SE MA, but it may not last long, looks like one more band trying to regenerate and arc towards the NW...

Still snowing here. Solid 4" of mashed potatoes here in Bristol. Came down pretty good for a couple of hours after a brief mix with rain. Quite surprised I'm still seeing flakes. Winds are picking up again too...

I don't think it was ball busting as much as you throwing in the towel pretty early on. Yes, the outcome eventually was a bust. But you admit yourself that three miles west of you the forecast is much closer to what was expected. Conditions could have easily changed where the snow piled up a little more east of the bay. It's not like North Kingstown is a bastion of high snowfall totals in the winter time like NW RI. The Weather Channel and Ch. 10 did end up with a better forecast for eastern parts of RI...

Don't feel bad, only about an inch here! You doubled up from my house. Looks like it's more of an east/west thing this time around than a north/south.

It's been a while since I've seen the radar look so good and the result be so terrible lol... not a 'melt' just an observation. Par for the course down here near the bay.

Mixing with rain in Warwick and here in Bristol now. Oh well... less to shovel...

True - yet the expectation was the worst of this storm would be through 10PM for areas in the coastal plain. That's definitely not gonna happen at this point with this map issued at 5PM. Even my conservative 4-8" is gonna bust here...

There's a point where they stop updating the high end and low end maps, but still keeps updating the official expected map.

Updated map from BOX. Also, their 4:45 PM AFD didn't issue an updated short term forecast...

Yup, not much better in Bristol. Considering the radar not much to show for it at all. No mixing but whatever is going on with the radar echoes isn't mixing down to reality at the surface. As others have commented, seems more like a March storm than the 1st day of February here. I was expecting 4-8", would surprised if I get that now - still a long way to go though.

Patience...