bristolri_wx

Unfortunately 2014-2015 does not show up anywhere on your chart 

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This storm was never interesting to me. I maybe in the minority, but a major impact on the mainland US never had much of a chance. 

Not much else going on… was at least a topic of interest given the general area of development/track. Understandable to not jump on board. 

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s a fish. She gone.

According to the 18z Euro, most likely.  According to 18z GFS, probably.  18z Euro really has Fiona cranking now, 947mb at HR 90 and farther NE, than 12z, which was 973mb, thanks to the center missing Hispaniola.  If it strengthens that much, then yup it's definitely fish food.  Still feel like it's interesting to track though next few days.  Euro could be off on strengthening and track...

Ha! Love how I'm getting weenied for a post that ended with "Wouldn't be something to get my hopes up for".  Bring it on Oscar Meyer...

18Z GFS is a pinch west to start and then a bit farther west by the time it gets up to the Canadian Maritimes.  Not enough to influence NE... biggest notable difference is there's a much bigger ridge over the Midwest than the previous run, and that causes the trough cutting through the New England to have a much more positive tilt in a SW -> NE orientation.  If that continues to be the trend, then Fiona's track might continue to edge west, and that trough has a chance of sucking Fiona in closer to the coast.  Wouldn't be something to get my hopes up for could be an 18z blip too...

I’m in the “interested because it’s in the right area, but wouldn’t post about it on social media because it doesn’t look good and it would give people the wrong impression” camp. Modeling isn’t looking favorable on this one as it moves west… not surprising… but still worth a periodic check in through Sunday. Fiona is down 28-3 at the half…

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

PVD was .2 June, 2.8 July.

Yeah RI at any time of the year isn’t a favorable area for radiational cooling. not surprising.

32 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS getting closer

Regardless of where that thing goes after the 72 hour window, it’s at least putting it in a location that’s historically favorable to make an approach if conditions are right…

18 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah I understand that, yet JJ -.4 isn't really "cool" or cold, but whatever.

Only one person said cold - who was questioned throughly about inebriation levels. I think the rest referred to the period as below normal, which was true for inland areas.

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah next article is:

List of Russian municipal deputies who have recently died by slip, trip or fall grows to nearly 50, local official says.

19 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Looks like Newport about to get rocked

We are!  Lots of thunder and heavy downpours.  Not too much lightning...  Drove past people doing the Cliff Walk and wondered if none of them have a device that would tell them Newport was in a Thunderstorm Warning...

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

You like it when everything dies and is brown and it's cloudy and dreary outside? Odd.

You do you… no need to troll as the seasons change away from the ones you prefer. 
 

Even from a strictly weather point of view, other than occasional severe flare ups fall and winter feature many more chances for interesting weather than spring and summer.

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The last four Februaries have all been near-average to cold here.  A lot of the correlations I use have r-squared values over 0.4, and they work when I hindcast in random years in the 1890s-1930s. 

I actually don't think I have any direct correlations for ABQ in February though. My ACE stuff works much better for mid-Dec to mid-Jan, not that you ever read or remember anything people tell you. I wish you'd come up with an original idea once in a while instead of just copying everyone you follow.

So he should just make things up?

Using previously researched and tested methodologies is an important part of weather forecasting, and in science in general.

Of course if you are willing provide a $500,000 grant, some number crunching equipment, and some grad student assistants, I’m sure he can come up with the next set of determining factors for winter forecasts that have been yet to be discovered.

Don’t have any measurements but it’s been pouring here for a couple of hours now. Radar estimate is creeping up…

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Right. His dream is impossible. 

Yes… correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t there some math and physics that show that as temperature drops the amount of water vapor that can be contained in the atmosphere is reduced? So you could never get 9” of rain in a twelve hour span when temps are that low…

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe another .25” or so tomorrow per the HRRR. That would at least get us over 1”

Every inch counts…

Even if the eastern areas of RI miss out on the heaviest stuff, it’s a huge win if the western areas get it. Most of the state gets its water from the Scituate Reservoir and its watershed is getting an nice fill up out of this storm.

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This looks a lot more spotty than I thought it would. Going to be some haves and a lot of have nots 

I think the forecast of 1-2" with isolated jackpots of more than that is going to be a solid forecast for most areas outside of the cape.  Patience...

50 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My wife (and a bunch of other folks we know) have Friday and Monday off.  Bastards 

I work in higher-ed, comes with the territory. Other fringe benefits make up for it.

48 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Do people still use the Labor Day Weekend as a time to take a short vacation?  

I haven’t had Labor Day off since 2004 lol…

Mega heatwave next 10 days… 

With those warm SST’s nearby could lead to a good season for nor'easters… though more likely later into the fall than September…

So just to be clear, we are allowed to use 384 op maps for forecasting drought but not for forecasting rain or snow or temps. Asking for a friend… 

Hurricane Floyd 1999:

I was the GM of the student radio station at RIC. We decided to make an event out of it. Stayed on the air all night even had an “emergency” plan to rig equipment up to the generator that provided some backup power for lights to stay on the air. Thankfully never came to that.

Turned out to be a good time for all involved. We had internet so we could weather provide updates. We helped keep the students stuck on campus in the dorms entertained so Campus Police left us alone.  By 3am it was more of a party than a broadcast but no one bothered us and we were well provisioned. Floyd wasn’t too bad in Providence where we were so we never lost power.

My mind is fuzzy but we may have somehow won a community service award for that event that year for a bunch of us getting drunk and having a party in the student union. Good times…