bristolri_wx

About 5-6" here in Bristol.  What I expected.  Probably same QPF as others but not quite as fluffy as others have reported which probably caused lower snowfall total.  Still coming down moderately here in this last exiting band...

3 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

That depicts an absolutely frigid coastal. Been awhile since we had one of those…

Not sure if there's enough cold air around for that one to be all snow. 

2 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

What's your total so far? My snow is melting as fast as it accumulates at the moment. Still don't have an inch.

Honestly, I'm more angry with myself more than anything. A while back I started just looking at all the modeling, seeing what people on here thought, and then arriving at a very conservative number, the lowest of possible bounds. Then, I cut that number in half for Newport.

Every winter I have to relearn the lesson. 

 

 

I’m eyeballing 4” haven’t found the yard stick yet to measure. It’s 29 degrees here no issues sticking to the ground.

14 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

it doesn't snow in Rhode Island

Yes, it’s due to the East Bay/West Bay de-snowification zone.

14 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

So..is the FV3 any good? Because the 00Z run is pretty nice..

I believe it’s based off the same core as the GFS. It’s slated to replace the NAM in the next couple of years. I bet @OceanStWxknows more. I’ve been looking at it since it’s become available and anecdotally it’s seems to be an improvement over the NAM.

2 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

You guys are Freaking Brutal 

Cheer up your part of the state usually does pretty well in this sort of setup. Maybe you won’t be the New England jack pot but there’s a good chance you could be the RI one…

13 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

If you draw a line through the middle of RI as far as its longitudinal boundaries, it won't split the state in half in terms of land mass either, because the state isn't a square.

Luckily? Glacially, the bay already does that, and it does a serviceable job of splitting the population, since almost nobody lives in the Northwestern half of the west bay.

I've been living here for over decade, and I've never heard anyone speak about east and west with regard to RI other than in terms of relation to the bay. Perhaps this is something that people on the west bay do, but people on the east bay don't. Which would only underscore the valid distinction, haha.

I don't think Charlestown is in the best place for this, but you're in a good spot and don't have to fret the P-type as is our wont. Enjoy the snow over there.  I feel like early January snow is almost a bonus here.

 

I was born in RI and have lived here all my life. While East Bay is a commonly used term, no one really uses West Bay to describe anything in the state.

I wouldn't trust some of the snow maps honestly at the moment - not because they are giving us bad news, but because there is some model weirdness going on.  The GFS sounding has the temp rising 7 degrees to 35 at the surface as the storm has passed us to the ENE with winds coming out of the NW and thicknesses between 516 and 520 over head.  That's just not happening - its not common sense weather.  And that type of output is going to affect snowfall map output.  It's not going to rain over my house with 850 temps -18C, yet that's what the surface output on the GFS says is happening.

All I'm saying is that there's a lot of doom and gloom here, but there's a lot of model spread still and a lot of weirdness going on. 2-4" and 3-6" seems realistic and probably at this point.  I guess it sucks that we're not getting a 12", but after last week's garbage I'm surprised we're even getting this...

Ignore the models that are flip-flopping, and stick with the models that are consistent.  NAM is wavering back and forth on this one, especially the 12k.  Keep it lower on the list of consideration.  Not a wish-cast here, just seems like common sense.

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I said a couple days ago we would soon be hearing:

"Still a couple inches for the Cape." 

Almost there.

Why? The modeling has improved since 00z, not the other way around.  The trends have been better...

Not too shabby...  seems reasonable...

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This is the time frame on the GFS upgrade where it saw some improvement and outscores the Euro, I guess we shall see.

The GFS and the FV3 Hi-Res were garbage on yesterday's "storm".  Yes new storm new analysis, but if it's a pattern related issue, then it may not be as trustworthy as we would like.

A 3-6” event would be great. Not every storm needs to be a 12”+ event. Also, anecdotally, I feel like the mechanics required for 3-6” and 4-8” events are much easier to get widespread across most and/or all of New England, including the South Coast. Often the most amplified solutions have mixing issues or miss a chunk of the region.

Even in the “holy grail” season of 2014-2015, my neck of the woods only had about 60” of snow. While most portions other portions of New England were at 100” or more especially eastern areas.

Let’s get the ball rolling here and hope for warning level snows and go from there!

36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Box will probably cancel advisories and the warning on Nantucket soon what a bust for them

It was always going to be close there.  Even the HRRR was showing a decent bout of snow there until very recently.  Might be a few hours before they decide to abandon them entirely... it was a close call, but going with a warning instead of an advisory was probably the call to make based on the forecasting tools available.

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I love how yesterday “this is coming west, nothing to stop it” and today it’s “ it’s going to be shredded and southeast, fits the pattern”

The models are clearly having issues with this overall winter pattern. This is going to be a tough forecasting season. I’m sure there are “improvements” using 500mb “verifications” though lol…

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We became unbearable at some point in the 2010s....nobody in here ever canceled winter in December or early January....only Ji did that in the M.A. forum. Now we get it multiple times per winter in here.

People can’t even figure out which potential storm this thread is for lol…

I'll take the under on he SREF output.  Boy what a c**k****e for those S/E of 95 on that map... If I get some flurries/snow showers after this week I call it a win lol...

1 hour ago, Hazey said:

#NovaScotiaStrong

Just walked the dog and can feel this damp “winter” muck finally moving out. Chilly breeze was refreshing. About time…

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Some flurries, 30 degrees.

We would take flurries down here. It’s been ****ing miserable here since Christmas. The doldrums… anecdotal but can’t remember such a stretch at the beginning of winter.

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Tossing a model 48 hours out ? You would think it would be good this far out.

GFS is kind of on its own on this one. NAM wants none of this and it’s within range of it being relatively accurate. Will be surprised if GFS is right on this one.

The positive on this is that even though the storm is a miss, at it at least has a semblance of change in the pattern indicated with a storm actually strengthening into some sort of cyclone to the south of us, rather than shredded mozzarella we’ve been getting last two weeks. Slow progress…

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

ACK close to a snow event Monday morning on gfs.

Yup every run that low moves another 50 miles NW on the GFS op… still won’t amount to much but it’s a consistent trend…

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Then there's the 0z NAM.

True, total miss on the NAM at the moment... but it's at the edge of the 12K range and not in the range of the 3k yet... probably not worth factoring it in for now considering it's not even in agreement with any of the globals on the strength of that low anywhere on the east coast.

That 1/3 storm has been steadily backing north and west towards New England on all the global models.  Something to watch, maybe a chance of a scrape?

@Typhoon Tip great write up, even if it doesn’t happen.

Also great that there’s no material in here to get cross posted back to off-topic threads