bristolri_wx

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

You like it when everything dies and is brown and it's cloudy and dreary outside? Odd.

You do you… no need to troll as the seasons change away from the ones you prefer. 
 

Even from a strictly weather point of view, other than occasional severe flare ups fall and winter feature many more chances for interesting weather than spring and summer.

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The last four Februaries have all been near-average to cold here.  A lot of the correlations I use have r-squared values over 0.4, and they work when I hindcast in random years in the 1890s-1930s. 

I actually don't think I have any direct correlations for ABQ in February though. My ACE stuff works much better for mid-Dec to mid-Jan, not that you ever read or remember anything people tell you. I wish you'd come up with an original idea once in a while instead of just copying everyone you follow.

So he should just make things up?

Using previously researched and tested methodologies is an important part of weather forecasting, and in science in general.

Of course if you are willing provide a $500,000 grant, some number crunching equipment, and some grad student assistants, I’m sure he can come up with the next set of determining factors for winter forecasts that have been yet to be discovered.

Don’t have any measurements but it’s been pouring here for a couple of hours now. Radar estimate is creeping up…

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Right. His dream is impossible. 

Yes… correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t there some math and physics that show that as temperature drops the amount of water vapor that can be contained in the atmosphere is reduced? So you could never get 9” of rain in a twelve hour span when temps are that low…

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe another .25” or so tomorrow per the HRRR. That would at least get us over 1”

Every inch counts…

Even if the eastern areas of RI miss out on the heaviest stuff, it’s a huge win if the western areas get it. Most of the state gets its water from the Scituate Reservoir and its watershed is getting an nice fill up out of this storm.

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This looks a lot more spotty than I thought it would. Going to be some haves and a lot of have nots 

I think the forecast of 1-2" with isolated jackpots of more than that is going to be a solid forecast for most areas outside of the cape.  Patience...

50 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My wife (and a bunch of other folks we know) have Friday and Monday off.  Bastards 

I work in higher-ed, comes with the territory. Other fringe benefits make up for it.

48 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Do people still use the Labor Day Weekend as a time to take a short vacation?  

I haven’t had Labor Day off since 2004 lol…

Mega heatwave next 10 days… 

With those warm SST’s nearby could lead to a good season for nor'easters… though more likely later into the fall than September…

So just to be clear, we are allowed to use 384 op maps for forecasting drought but not for forecasting rain or snow or temps. Asking for a friend… 

Hurricane Floyd 1999:

I was the GM of the student radio station at RIC. We decided to make an event out of it. Stayed on the air all night even had an “emergency” plan to rig equipment up to the generator that provided some backup power for lights to stay on the air. Thankfully never came to that.

Turned out to be a good time for all involved. We had internet so we could weather provide updates. We helped keep the students stuck on campus in the dorms entertained so Campus Police left us alone.  By 3am it was more of a party than a broadcast but no one bothered us and we were well provisioned. Floyd wasn’t too bad in Providence where we were so we never lost power.

My mind is fuzzy but we may have somehow won a community service award for that event that year for a bunch of us getting drunk and having a party in the student union. Good times…

Ha didn’t see this thread.. saw cloud to ground strikes on the way home to the Northeast while I was on the Mt Hope Bridge, but it’s the 7-10 split here lol…

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

There may be some serious melts if this underperforms

Doubtful... we've been seeing underperforming rainstorms for months now.  Most are hopeful but not optimistic...

11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m just wondering how wide the 7-10 split will be given the seasonal “trends”

6 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Have you seen the future spot prices on electricity in Europe this winter? It's approaching a record $500 mwh. Here in New England with some of the most expensive electricity in the US our average price of $50 mwh is a bargain.

Wa

I have but it's still speculation at this point.  More than likely it will come to fruition but things can also change quickly.  Regardless I think many of replying are in agreement that now is the time to fill up, if you can, because it doesn't look like prices will get much better in the Winter months and will most likely get worse.

I would also agree on filling now.  While it's tough to get projections on propane, fuel costs are expected to rise this winter.  Gasoline is falling right now, but only because refineries are finally catching up with demand and the markets have priced the Ukraine war into oil based commodities by now. Europe not buying Russian natural gas is a huge wildcard at the moment that could have some chain reactions.  It's kind of unprecedented...

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Unfortunately, it seems like both the CAMs and Global models
are struggling to resolve this mid and low level dry air,

 

 

This isn’t the first time we have heard unforecasted dry air as the reason for a busted modeled forecast. Are they taking feature requests at NOAA/NCEP?

Yup, it's drying out on the HRRR as well.  Each run since 00z has been less... grrr...

I’m feeling bullish on rain tomorrow. Good chances for up to 1” east of the CT river, though there will be pockets of winners and losers like in any good coastal we get.

Not surprising we get an anomalous low, during an anomalous pattern, during an anomalous drought. 
 

We’re due!

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We may get some rain here… but my guess is a Nam solution will be more correct than the euro 

Article is from June but interesting to get some background on upgraded compute for NOAA models:

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-supercomputers-for-weather-and-climate-forecasts-get-major-bump

Next 35 days on the GFS Ensemble 00z 8/13 Run...

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it’s more a s/w issue to be honest. 

While the 18z Euro doesn't go far enough out, you can definitely see signifigantly less precipitation south of New England on HR 90.  Could be nothing... or something got ingested into the 18z models that dried things out for us...