bristolri_wx

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He made sure he got “his home” in the Jack for winter, even though it doesn’t fit the axis. This is why LR forecasting is a joke 

 

Gotta love the map, with no blog post or even thread comments to explain his thoughts as to why he believes there will be below average temps and above average snow. 

I know this question has been asked before, but where does one get the maps or generate the maps that are used for multi-month and multi-year analogs that I see posted here often?  Just curious to play around with them when free time allows... fascinating stuff...

Were there really models spitting out that much QPF yesterday?  I thought I saw mostly 1-3" amounts on the models except for a couple of bullseyes in NH and ME higher elevations.  Then again I only checked a couple of times yesterday in the morning and early afternoon before primary precip moved in...

Just got a flood watch notification.  Looking at radar I can see why...

Feels like Christmas Eve out there tonight!  Dog is grumpy, no walk tonight.  Been moderate to heavy rain here for a couple of hours now.  Radar and models look quite wet.

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That’s a widespread soaker on the 00z HRRR.

Euro, NAM, HRRR locked in.  Just have to get the Commodore 64 on board...

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

As far as me: I was accused once of stealing hundreds of thousands of sensitive files at a job. I didn't do it. But during the investigation, I was given a whole range of psychological tests for emotional stability, personality type, IQ, etc. I'm quite normal. A normal person dislikes intellectual dishonesty - which as I've said is my issue. Repeatedly claiming to be right when you are wrong is quite irritating, and every time I point it out, people in this forum email me directly for doing so. Take it as you will.

12 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

What is the parking situation for providence bruins games?

Purchasing a 20 home game ticket package, but won’t do it if parking is outrageous 

https://www.bestparking.com/providence-ri-parking/destinations/amica-mutual-pavilion-parking/bridgeport-islanders-at-providence-bruins-1233941/

I don't know if the parking prices fluctuate at the Pavilion/Convention Center garages, but it's still $2 to park over at Providence Place Mall for five hours if you don't mind walking a couple of blocks.  I think you'll spend less than $20 per game either way...

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, I would probably do the same thing if I were in his shoes...you just have to when you're in a highly visible position like that. Just sucks society is like that today.

I would tend to agree. Many controversies have started by unintended statements without context made on Twitter that are amplified to hell in the echo-chamber of the Internet . His job isn’t to generate controversy. I’m sure if you were having some beers with him at a bar, the conversation would be different.

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just spotty stuff on models. You don’t forecast anymore 

The models didn't really have what fell last night either - I mean it was there, but what it ended up looking like on radar overnight was was much more widespread than the surface depictions on the HRRR.  The NAM was closest I believe - though that was overdone... but I wouldn't count out another decent .25" - .50" of rain even back into CT.

Ugh, KBOX radar being down tonight kind of bit me in the a$$ tonight. Was trying to pick a time in between rain showers to walk the dog. Went out and immediately got caught in a downpour despite no echoes overhead (checked a few times). Dog definitely was not happy with me.  Will assume it’s a beam angle, or distance issue with the showery nature of this storm.

Irony… my dogs name is Radar. 

Interesting discussion for rain tonight in SE NE

“.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... * Steadier rain overspreads the region tonight, with localized 3 to 4 inches totals possible through tomorrow morning for portions of SE MA. Surface low pressure associated with a vertically stacked upper level low is centered over southern NJ. That upper low will slowly track towards the 70W/40N benchmark, bringing a period of steadier rain to much of our area. There will be a rather sharp gradient between areas with generally 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain and areas that receive 1 to 3 inches of rain. The latter areas appear to be mainly across eastern MA, and especially southeast MA including Plymouth county and the Cape Cod Canal. This is where the nose of the mid-level dry slot and low-level jet is, and local research has shown that rainfall amounts tend to overperform due to the jet dynamics. In addition, the Trough of Warm Air Aloft (TROWAL) will help to further boost rainfall rates and even lead to elevated convection or a few rumbles of thunder overnight. Upon coordination with WPC, have used the HREF Probability Matched Mean (PMM) product to boost rainfall towards the 90th percentile of guidance for overnight tonight into Wednesday morning.”

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup. why they did away with the old format-

Did the Trump administration hand a mandate down to suck balls?

I want them sued and the Director of technology or whatever, that persons face to be smashed against a monitor until they’re an inch of consciousness. 
 

Having said that… What is “RadarScope”

I use RadarScope Pro as well, but this is my backup, especially on desktop computer as my RadarScope Pro license doesn’t transfer over at the subscription level I have:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BOX-N0Q-1-12

The graphics aren’t great but love the 200 frame view for the price ($0). Worth a try before you buy anything considering your reference point is NWS site.

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Same basic setup with strong HP to north pressing and exerting . Lots of low dews and limited forcing . Careful calling for heavy rains away from SE zones 

HP is not over Ontario this time, and seems to be moving east out of the area pretty quickly.  Could let a little more low level moisture in than on Saturday.

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

How much for Philly?

About two feet...

57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR wetter now. 

But how are the IBM, Commodore 64, and TRS-80 models?  Still dry?

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I know we’ve had Steffi for at least one winter.

What a backhanded statement.  The model aced the snowfall forecasts several times.

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

Straight up just an typical Nina prediction

Yeah that's what I got from it as well.  Not much nuance there.  Plus the CPC never gets into details anyway, but it's interesting to look at nonetheless to see where they are leaning...

CPC DJF JFM

I apologize for taking us off track.  To make @Typhoon Tip happy, here's on-topic subject matter, with a link to Accuweather's 2022-2023 US winter forecast:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweather-2022-2023-us-winter-forecast/1252283

Highlights for us:

• La Niña, volume 3
• Average snowfall SNE/NH/VT, above average ME
• Slightly above average temps
• Average precip
• Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano may have lingering effects on this winter's weather.

"Boston may end up being the only major city along the Interstate 95 corridor that finishes the winter with near-normal snowfall. AccuWeather long-range forecasters are predicting that 40 to 50 inches will accumulate in the city, around the average snowfall amount of 49.2 inches. Last winter, Boston finished the season with 54 inches of snow with 23.5 inches falling during a blizzard on Jan. 29."

2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

Ha, I was thinking this though:
 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Most outlooks will be out over the next month, anyway....mine will be out in about a month and Raindance in like a week.

Yeah I edited my post that your thread from last season ran right though 11/30/21.  It is long-range winter forecast season!! 

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'm sorry about that. I allowed him to hijack the thread.

Maybe time for a new Winter 2022-2023 thread.  A thread that's more confident!  A thread that is dry and secure! 

EDIT: The Winter 2021-2022 thread did run from March through November 30 last season... so maybe it's to early to call this one lol!

16 hours ago, raindancewx said:

It's no meltdown. You literally said you were fairly confident in a warm Neutral as late as 6/16. It's wonderful that you finally realized that conditions colder than last year for almost half a year weren't going to result in an El Nino I guess.

 2021  25.55  25.75  26.48  27.10  27.47  27.45  26.90  26.32  26.17  25.77  25.76  25.54
 2022  25.59  25.85  26.30  26.70  26.81  26.97  26.59  25.89 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99

I've yet to see anything of value from you my entire time here. I sure as hell don't read your blog.

@raindancewxI'm not quite sure what's rubbing you the wrong way, but you need to get over it.  I've been following this thread since it started since Winter is the weather season I'm most interested in.  Numerous times you have posted your opinions here on this thread, and they've been met with interest, none negative.  Yet, when posters have replied to you with additional questions or more opinion, you really haven't provided any.

I went back and re-read this entire thread just because it's a slow work day (I'm stuck in front of a computer 65 hrs a week), and only once Ray mentioned that he thought he might have some confidence that a warm-neutral ENSO state would occur this winter season.  And in fact, a week later he posted a link to his blog that he was NOT confident that would be the case, and pointed to a weak La Niña instead as more of a possibility.  You didn't need a PhD in English to get the point.

I enjoy reading your long term forecast and analog ideas when you post them here, but I'm not sure why the lash-out at Ray.  He doesn't need me or anyone else to defend him.  Nobody here is making guaranteed Fall/Winter ENSO forecasts in the April through June timeframe, and I don't believe anyone here thought that to be the case as this thread has evolved.  If anything, there's been much more chatter about 24-25 being a warm ENSO than anything else.

I highly recommend not following the "Summer's Eve Guide to Posting on Internet Forums, 3rd edition." vebatim, as it does you no favors.  Now back to our regularly scheduled winter conjecture.

3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

They are replacing generator and fuel tanks as part of maintenance.  I think KGYX was down last week.

https://www.weather.gov/media/box/KBOX_SLEP.pdf

Besides, their uptime minus scheduled maintenance numbers are quite good considering the radar system was installed in the late 80's and early 90's, and are operational 24/7.  Some parts of the 88D radar system are still from the original installs and only get replaced when they fail (from what I've read).