bristolri_wx

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Best comment.  One of these models is profoundly wrong.  I would be surprised if its the Euro, but the GFS has been relatively steadfast.  

It's been posted a few times that GFS is having a tough couple of weeks vs the Euro even on mundane 500mb verification in the northern hemisphere domain. GFS has been consistent - we've also seen it cave to the consensus many times on the coastals at the last minute.

This Kuchera Ratio map on Pivotal is kind of neat... not sure how accurate it is...

The last 3 runs are exactly why people say "but it's the NAM".  It's doing everything it normally does with coastal snow storms lol.  It's improved aloft, and totally reversed what it did at 18z.  Since we're depending on the 60-84 without the 3k to aid us, I'd call it a win.

Looks like the NAM is back on it's meds.   Needs to get that prescription on auto-fill so it doesn't have anymore 18z episodes...

17 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

I don't understand why they use such big snow maps.

Literally no one in CT receives WCVB or WBZ over the air.

People who live in Boston do leave the city and travel west... rarely... 

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Woof. That need A LOT of work.

Interesting that the majority of western solutions are stronger than the eastern solutions by a few mb...

6 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Does WPC still have a model diagnostic text discussion?

They do not:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

...but their 4 PM extended forecast discussion and 3:30 PM snow discussions did not mention anything regarding the 18z models, or how awful the NAM is.  Mostly referenced 00z/06z/12z trends today.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

Yeah tick east.  24" on Cape Cod, while Worcester gets an inch.  LOL... models...

12 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Wait wait wait Waaaait.  

 

You guys have been hyping this up to be like the grand puba's of 2005, 2013, 2015.... and I NEED TO GET HOME.....

 

And I'm projected to be 9"-16"????  With confidence Getting Lower by the run?  Baaahahaha.  OK.  I'll be in LA.  

Thanks for locking in a KU for us by staying in LA 

I would confidently toss this NAM considering how different it is from all other models.  Of course if the other 18z's come in similar trends then we worry.  This concludes my John Madden-like weather model commentary.

Keep the faith... modeling hasn't been good this season for us, for both hits and misses, even at this range.  GFS hasn't been good last couple of weeks according to multiple sources.  I feel like the trends tomorrow will be the important ones as better data comes in.  Right now its kind of the Euro against the other globals but who knows it might be on to something.  It was worrisome that some perfect scenarios showed up on the models YESTERDAY, which is a little far out to my liking.  Prefer those outcomes a little closer in knowing how models adjust closer to storm formation and arrival.

10 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

So far 0z suite trends:

GFS east, still solid hit for eSNE

GGEM west, huge hit for all of New England

NAM: looks to be in west camp, might even jack NJ/NY/CT/eSNE area

ICON: west

UK: very east, the worst run in days

We won't get much certainty tonight, but will be nice to see Euro hold

Out of curiosity, I went over to weather.us and looked at some of the other models available there.  The French, Chinese, Korean are on the eastern side of the guidance as well.  We know what the skill levels are there, but it does make you wonder what's making some of the models go east of the Euro/CMC...

The calm before the 0z GFS...

This was a torchy run of the GFS... lol...

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

omg dude I literally almost replied to him before you posted that. then was like...nah

He's also not a fan of the metric system.  Definitely going to follow him on Twitter now.

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

admirable attempt. for future hahas, he is slightly northeast of that --- along or ever so slightly northeast of the blue dotted line

It's the best I could do in 60 seconds in Photoshop lol.  I had to eyeball it based  on two different maps. LOL

7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Generally, for the New England region I think this is looking really good for the lead time. I think everyone has a good shot at a seriously significant snowfall, with the exception of an area at approximately 980' elevation along Robin Circle in Tolland, CT where I think subsidence and dryslotting will be a huge issue (and this area will also likely experience rain to start and to end). But generally for those outside this screw zone it should be a really good storm, impossible to pin down an exact jackpot area --- other than where it won't be, which is Robin Circle in Tolland, CT.

Brutal screw zone....

Seems like we're getting all the signals we want to see 5 days out for a region wide storm.  Let's narrow the goal posts.  Realistically the 5 day forecast would be 6-12" for most unless something drastically changes like a mixing component or a weird dry slot, and then there will be some banding/jackpots that are more in the 12-18" range.  Will be fun to follow the rest of the week.  I'll take the 6" IMBY.

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Coastal front from hell… setup over like east Taunton.

I posted some graphics from Pivotal earlier - 0" to 12" over 2/3 of a mile on the GFS soundings...

I would just like to point out the comical line for 0" to 12" of snow for .01 degrees increase of latitude on the GFS

EDIT - According to my math, and google, 1 degree of latitude is equal to 69 miles, so .01 would be approximately 2/3 of a mile between 0" and 12" of snow, verbatim, from this clown map LOL!!!

There’s hope for a decent storm for everyone here at this range. Can’t get a real handle on p-type issues until the high res models get into play. The fact that 500 mb looks good, and there is a storm not scooting out to sea or cutting to Toronto is enough for now at this range, even for the I95/SENE folks. 

Well that was an exciting day of football...

Guaranteed: at least one post that mentions sun angle.

2 hours ago, JC-CT said:

No, they cant

Fired up my TRS-80 to run the MM5 as I writes this. Will post when completed.