bristolri_wx

Just now, JC-CT said:

Not with that attitude!

You meant "not with that latitude!"

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

I have tried every one of those.

I made sure to post the good stuff - we need it after this storm.

1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

 

Though more appropriate for this storm...

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Beers 

12 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

If only it was a bit colder today - would be some nice accums on the Cape. Shame

Yeah this airmass overhead is just “weird”, light north winds overnight, a storm to are east, brutal cold to our north, and still temps from from 850 down are above freezing…

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

this is going to beef up storms. sorry if people don't like it

This is definitely having an influence on our weather, for sure... that being said, if you go here and review the maps, the gulf stream has been above normal since at least 1996:

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data3/50km/image/twiceweekly/ssta/global/

 

14 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

climate change

Not just that.  The models can only account for deterministic factors that humans can program into them, and the limited number of observations that feed into the baselines to generate the model output.  There might be factors in modeling we're not accounting for yet that influence the weather, and we're not observing the weather in every location on the planet every second of the day for data input.  So while the analogs might look "perfect" there are clearly other factors in play making this storm behave differently.  The models either aren't seeing something or the atmospheric conditions, somewhere, are different than the analogs, causing this storm to behave as forecasted.

Looks like maybe a couple of inches of slush that get washed away for me. Enjoy that jack in NNE!

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

You people need to spend less time on the Miller A v B debate. A storm is a storm and this one wants to track over our heads.

So where else can we discuss the scientific characteristics of this specific storm? LOL… I’m enjoying the discussion !

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Why does everyone like the eps ? It's not God. 

It’s a tool in the toolbox…

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The part about the NAVGEM being part of the "big three" is what makes me think it's just a trolling deal. Anyone who follows weather models even the slightest bit here knows the NAVGEM is not a legit model for the kind of storms we are talking about.

I wouldn’t necessarily characterize it as trolling but instead excessive optimism for a specific weather outcome.

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z EPS actually looks a bit west of the 12z run. I’m on my phone so can’t really toggle but eyeball glance looks west

 

To me looks like more members east at 18z, but the members that are west at 18z are farther west than 12z…

Can anyone explain what's going on with the pattern overall?  Maybe it's something I'm noticing just now that's more common, or maybe it's different, but when you zoom out and do the Northern Hemisphere or North Atlantic views on the models, all the waves are cutting west instead of going out to sea.  Is that just a bad orientation of the NAO causing that?  Just referencing the latest op runs 500mb view and you see every wave of low pressure just rotating north in the Davis Straight instead of out into the Atlantic... for almost the entire 240/384... it piqued my interest...

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CMC is brutal.

Notable that the GFS and CMC have been in tandem on the Friday and Monday storms now for several cycles.  Subtle differences but very similar outcomes/tracks...

Man, the CFS looks cold.  Only a few above average days all the way through the first week of Feb.  Not used to seeing that much cold actually forecasted on the CFS for the US, so it was noticeable.

If anyone is really really bored, feel free to check out my Twitch stream for a WS4000 simulator I setup, for fun and nostalgia...

https://www.twitch.tv/riretrowx

Just the Providence, RI forecast on loop with sappy 80's/90's instrumental music.  I played around with it last year, decided to get it going again.  For those that don't already know, the WS4000 was the device that cable companies used at their "head-ends" to inject the Local Forecast into their Weather Channel feeds.  The theme being used is circa 1991.  Enjoy! 

29 minutes ago, Vinny Findley said:

Same here in Cranston. Just the plow piles left. You getting wind gusts over there? Had one had to be 45 MPH. Rocked the house!

Yeah winds have been gusty here all day too.

1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

My pack is down to 3 inches, hopefully it freezes solid this week and forms a good base coat.

My pack is gone, except for a few piles from shoveling.  It's been mid 40's here most of the day...

3 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

That sounding looks to me like it shows about 9 degrees celcius.

Not sure how... 10c is the next set of dotted lines to the right.  The temp scale is at the bottom...

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Snow/sleet line like 5 miles west of me...makes perfect sense

Don't get too depressed yet, highly unlikely that forecasted warm layer verifies like that...  

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

How is this even possible at the surface given the temps above?  Or is there some sneaky layer above 0C?

 

Hits like 33F at 800mb...  just barely... 

14 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I don’t even remember the last time we got one of those clippers.

Wasnt them clippers a big thing from like 2003-2005? I do recall several snow events that clipped the coast with light snow while Woonsocket was cold and dry.

I'm not that good at keeping track of them personally.  I remember a lot of them when I was growing up (80s/90s) - a lot of 2-4" or 3-6" south of Providence and 1-3" north of Providence maps on TV when those storms would come around.  Usually they would perform as expected.

5 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Good lord that is typical.  I ended up with about 3.5 inches. Cement then a powder puff on top. Drive in any direction and the snow immediately gets deeper.

Sorry man, Newport is never in a good spot, except for some of those redeveloping Alberta clippers that shoot by directly south of New England... not much better up here.  We usually get 125-150% of whatever Newport gets in most situations.

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I graded this effort an A-.

Although the forecast philosophy never wavered from the notion of a major storm  (frustrated posts on a message board not withstanding), in the end the flaw with the forecast was that I was not intensely concentrated enough with the area of deformation.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/01/verification-of-friday-major-winter.html

It seems rather difficult to even figure out where that deformation band sets up in New England.  It's different just about every time with these storms.  It's also why we will never be able to predict snowfall to the inch - you get into the larger predictions and the range needs to be larger to account for the bands.  It may take another decade of modeling resolution increases to get close to that point.  I thought your forecast was on point and 6-12 seems valid for most of the area.  The Cape busted high because that band was really juicy at the end and temps did not get quite as warm as expected.

16 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

10".  And like December 2019, I'm just a John Daly solid drive on the 18th from the coveted foot.  

 

This is now the 4th Storm in the past 3 Seasons where I got Under a Foot when everyone around me got a Foot-15", OR I got 12" when everyone around me got 15"-20".  This is just a losing spot.  It Used to be a Magic spot from February 2003-2011 (and some few times after, specifically my Only Jack in March 2019) Where the NWS Literally would NOT Believe my Snow Totals.  Now I don't even have to report because the towns next to me have 2" more so it's worthless.  ALSO Miss time on TV as I know the RI Mets.  But I'm not going to Lie and inflate the total to get on air.  

Stop making RI look bad lol. Be happy with the 10".  It's not a widespread 12" amount.  Cumberland/Woonsocket is almost always in the higher end for RI.

We barely have 6" down here and I'm only 22 miles away.