bristolri_wx

That sleet keeps wanting to progress north, and it keeps getting knocked back. Fascinating to watch on the CC radar...

I like how that little snow just southwest of RI tracked all the way from PA, over LI... CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-New_England-comp_radar-00_20Z-20260126_map_noBar-100-1n-10-100.mp4

Just switched over to more icy snow in the last 15 minutes. Up to 25 degrees. Getting windier.

I like how the best guess was "none" lol!

Sleet approaching RI south coast on OKX radar... Snow and wind picking up here... 23.

The iPhone weather app has me 6-9 degrees warmer all day as current temp. Not sure what the hell is up with it today. It's usually great.

I have snow reports from people in Cumberland, Coventry, Burrillville, North Providence, and Middletown and they are all still moderate to heavy snow. Obviously I can't discount your report, but whomever that person is getting sleet in Northern RI is extremely unlucky. It would also be the farthest northern sleet report at the moment...

You coming over later to shovel my sleet? Whatever happens, will happen, but I can both enjoy the current and wonder about the switchover for us. It's what we do down here... NAM 3K moved the sleet line 25-30 miles south, similar to HRRR. More QPF on Monday.

Just correcting my temp to 11. For some reason my phone is advertising that it's 7 degrees warmer and I took for granted that it was correct.

Yeah. To be honest the sleet only bothers me for cleanup reasons. I don't have a nice two stage to cut through it when snow ends up wet and dense.

Alternating between moderate and heavy snow here. Couple of inches down by eye. Up to 17. Hoping to avoid the sleet after 8PM as much as possible, looks like I'm right on the battleground area/line. Voting for the HRRR today.

He was told this two days ago. The issue at this point is the repetitiveness of the posts.... the snow will be here when he gets back. It ain't going anywhere anytime soon, even if we have a dry spell this upcoming week.

Expect about 10 in Newport. I'm expecting about 12-14 here. If I was a betting man I would take the over, not the under. While the NAM does like to sniff out the warm layer, I think for this particular storm, its an outlier and should not be weighed heavily in the forecast. Usually by 12 hours before go time, there's more consensus with the NAM when it's physics are picking up on something earlier than the others. However, no other model shows as much of a warm layer than the NAM brothers are right now. It's definitely gonna sleet in Newport - but not as much as depicted on the NAM. Enjoy being pleasantly surprised.

Isn’t this the third or fourth event with a modeled Norlun of this season? (Monday)

It’s been 800 for many runs now, while 700 and 850 remain below freezing by several degrees.

I feel like this is exactly why this is a now cast kind of storm. You can’t say that the models are totally wrong with things like jackpots and sleet lines, but it’s a very anomalous setup where the models may be “guessing” a little more than usual, and we still see discrepancies 24 hours out…

This page seems to discuss how NWS offices/mets are to create operational snowfall forecasts, and how not to, based on model output: https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/forecast-guide/nwp-snow-accumulation-products

That's a lot of clouds and moisture on their way...

Our AI overlords are not good at weathermaps but very good at weenies.

Yes we need the free liberated maps rather than the governed ones!

What a way to end that 6" storm streak. Ka-boom!!

As some others have posted, we are lucky we are getting this much for a SWFE. Ordinarily they do not perform well in coastal plain, and they often end as rain, not sleet, for those closer to the south coastal areas. I’ve seen as much as 6-8” wash away to nothing or almost nothing at the end in some of the more potent ones. 8-12” with sleet at the end isn’t the end of the world. Canada actually being cold again has been the key this year. We have seen more favorable setups in previous seasons but no cold to tap into and we end up with mostly slop.

It can get a nickname when it actually goes operational. The RRFS A on Pivotal has already been deemed a “failure” by NOAA and will never be used for official forecasts. All the FV3 (of which RRFS is one) based models are going to be replaced, unless I’m misunderstanding what I have read. The next version based on different physics is still considered even more experimental. So maybe the nickname should be “cancelled”? LOL