bristolri_wx

I mean let’s be honest when the GFS is out to lunch in the other direction against consensus, we usually toss it. In this case it’s still showing much more than anyone else, it could just be behind, unless we see a jog north on the high res meso models or radar changes, it’s probably not happening as depicted on the GFS.

I'm also getting the distinct impression that this preceding airmass being hot garbage provides wide swings when you start looking at snowfall maps with little change in the upper levels. If we had a colder airmass in place, ratios wouldn't be as much of an issue considering the overall placement of the low pressure. It going a little farther south, as mentioned in the discussions, causes the better lift and the mechanics to cool off the atmosphere more quickly and comprehensively go along with it, and no one is sure if back side cold air can balance that out. A week ago we weren't even sure a snowstorm for a large part of the area could materialize considering the confidence in it being +10 to +20 for several days before hand and no cold front coming before it to inject cold air into the region.

Out of personal curiosity, I would love to know what data that got ingested in the last 12-18 hours that caused this much of a hiccup. I see the reasons for the change, but man, what a huge swing right before go time. And before you say the Ukie was on this the entire time, the reason why the Ukie didn't like this storm on earlier runs does not seem to match the trends on the other models in the last 12 hours. I guess the models were threading the needle the last few days with a perfect setup of chaos that didn't actually occur?

BOX AFD:

The dark gray doesn't go that far up Narragansett Bay. I'm at around 10" here for the season in Bristol.

Wow 4-8” down here wouldn’t be terrible. I’ll take it. Better than the last three white rain storms we have had.

In the spirit of this discussion, here's a long range total snowfall map.

#Winter2024. Terrible.

Hour 7 of white rain… accumulations so far:

I would be happy with 3-5" on Fri/Sat if it doesn't mix. Would be a while since we've had a "clean" storm down here. Kid would be happy to go sledding too!

Anecdotal because I was driving in it, but I feel like this overperformed a little in RI and SE MA before the change over. It was snowing pretty hard for my entire commute into Providence, and there's 3-4" on the ground once you get north of Warren into Bristol County MA, and Providence/Pawtucket.

Looks like the coastal plain is the Dallas Cowboys of snow accumulation in this storm...

12z GFS has 50-70 MPH winds for SE New England as well. Fun!

We do not need another 2-3" of rain in RI...

Man that is a lot of precip on radar… wind is really picking up here now almost a constant roar at this point.

Final total here in Bristol was 4. About a slushy inch overnight before the rain, then 3” during the burst. Seems to match up with the NWS obs maps. Flurries here now. That 3 hour dump was some of the best snowfall in a while, hopefully shows the potential of what’s to come the rest of the winter.

Heavy Snow right now, best of the storm. 32. Not sure how long this lasts.

Finally switched over to all snow and sticking. 33.

Snow still fighting the rain here. You can tell it’s trying to switch over but man this LLW is resistant here… 34…

Rain sleet and snow mix starting here in Bristol, 33

Actually right after I posted the intensity picked up and it switched over to mostly snow. Have a coating but back to a little mix again. Figuring this is how it will be here most of the night and tomorrow until temps drop.