bristolri_wx

They probably don't heavily weigh their forecasts on it either. The 18Z ensembles were a little west of the previous track, and that may have been accounted for in the 11PM update. I'm interested in what the GFS does at 0z. If it's east then I'm betting the Euro will be as well, and NHC will update at 2AM or 5AM accordingly.

3K was also east vs 18z... but not by much...

Looks like NAM is making landfall over South County RI...

Probably more of a cheeseburger with a small fry. But not a Big Mac or a Whopper.

Looks like a toss. The entire 48 hour run the HRRR never gets winds above what are already actually being recorded right now... doesn't seem to jive with all the other modeling...

Significantly weaker... not sure how much value the long range HRRR has (probably similar to the NAM).... but... another model with an eastward trend... it also initialized poorly....

Does the west trend stop? Does Henri “shuffle” east? Who gets whacked, New York or New Haven? Can anyone trust the NAM? This and more tonight on AMWX (Queue breaking news music…)

He has really gone to crap since his accuweather days… sad…

I would only trust the NAM for a TC in the scenario of “models trending west can models trending east” count. Other than that not very useful and too erratic.

Definitely a storm surge up the bay alignment... thankfully the hurricane barrier is still functional for Providence... other areas without a barrier not as lucky...

HWRF is east... landfall is at Watch Hill, RI... continues NW trajectory into CT... huge difference from HMON lol...

Could be... it's way west at 48 compared to last run...

HMON is slowly rolling in. So far slightly west and slightly weaker but not near land yet... just of interest as it's been consistently one of the western tracked models of this storm...

Ugh that's still a lot of spread 36-48 out from the storms effects...

Those dorms at RWU are pretty sturdy. There's a bunch of them that have weathered Gloria and Bob without any issues. There's also a decent amount of elevation going up from the coast to the campus so storm surge shouldn't be too much of an issue where those buildings are located.

The only question at this point is when does the westward trend stop... the trend continues to be westward...

Yup, this is the west scenario that I didn't want... lol...

I'm not quite convinced yet that this storm goes as far west as some of these models are indicating. This isn't because I want a hurricane to pass right overhead like Bob did. That was a mess in Bristol as the eye went right over us, though as many have mentioned it was entirely different setup. However this westward track is all based on the ULL capturing the storm and forcing it westward at the end before EC transition. While this is a tropical system, we've seen this scenario before with other low pressure systems where models like to capture a storm and keep it west, only for this not to occur exactly as modeled, or it happens later farther east. I think the NHC with it's conservative guidance on this track is probably considering this as well. It's an unusual track of approach for this type of storm and then the interaction is also unusual so I'm betting more common sense human forecasting is going to prevail in this one.

Looks like NHC 11 PM stuff is finally getting posted. Public advisory is up...

Hmmm, still no 11PM advisory from the NHC... usually they are up 15 minutes before hand...

I think most of us are just joking around. I don't think it's a conicidence they run the NAM before everyone goes to bed lol...