bristolri_wx

Ugh that f-ing blows... literally...

I work in Newport full time. It look me 35 minutes to get out of the city yesterday. It seemed to be a total s$%tshow of people trying to leave and people trying to get in at the same time, lol...

Well it's "First Alert Weather". They must be first! Heck their on-screen graphics have it displayed 4 times.

Call me biased but Bristol is one of the nicest places you can be.

BOX 10AM AFD:

There's total distrust of everyone and everything now. If it was someone's or some groups plan to seed so much doubt into the population that they've brainwashed them into not believing anything, then they've succeeded. Even at a high end tropical storm there's gonna be people surprised about the damage caused...

Right now - I'm in Providence at work at job #2, but it is where I reside (and have for most of my life).

IMHO, (and this is probably over-simplified), if Henri is stronger, it gets pulled farther west by the cut-off low. If it's weaker, it stays a little farther east. I'm just basing this on the modeling trends over the last 36 hours...

It also looks like that as soon as the convective models see weaker system development they kick it a little farther east...

Yes... also in the much stronger camp too... guessing that's about 975 mb on that map?

Looks like the NHC track came a smidge east...

That doesn't look right - only because the UKMET and HWRF aren't showing tracks that far west. UKMET was way east of that last night... unless I'm misunderstanding "UKX2" and "HWF2" abbreviations...

Just for trend purposes... the 3km is way east of it's runs yesterday evening.... it's about two runs behind the 12k nam on track and strength at the moment...

Hmmm, no track adjustments yet from NHC… surprised considering how many models moved east later last night and this morning. It’s hard to bet against the GFS and Euro when they are close to being in the same camp….

Euro scrapes E LI at HR 42 and takes it into central CT. Looks like it moved about 25-50 miles east this run... strength about the same.

Euro looks a pinch east and a little slower through HR 24...

True, but often they have an update at around 10:30-ish...

Gee, no forecast discussion at BOX tonight... last one was at 7:15 PM...

You called it. Canadian same thing. 12z was over NYC, 0z over Westerly RI. That's about 150 miles lol...

That's about 50-75 miles east of previous run...

Seems a little early to draw that conclusion...

Let's look at facts in play: - We're now within 48 hours of landfall, so modeling should be improving in general. - That cut-off low west of Henri is now forming and no longer "theoretical" and is probably now better sampled from observation data. - We have multiple recon flights into Henri ingesting data into the models. The only thing probably not sampled as well is the ridge/blocking to the east of Henri. While nothing is ever certain, I think it's fair to say that @40/70 Benchmark is correct in the assumption that the west trend is ending and maybe overdone by some of the models and the correction is underway. Central to eastern CT is probably where landfall will occur, maybe a chance it gets as far as Westerly or Charlestown RI. While we need to see the Euro to be sure, probably just some "wobbles" or "blips" going forward on the major models and you'll probably see the crap models that are taking it into NJ and NYC correct farther east.

Waterford FTW on the GFS...