bristolri_wx

If you play the percentages that pattern out west is going to break down eventually… question does it happen in time to make things more favorable here. It’s hard to go with your gut when there are record anomalies…

I think I have had to use a snow blower twice down here in the last 3 years. Either not enough to get it setup (I have an electric corded one) or way to slushy due to p-type issues. Even todays 2” wasn’t enough to get it out…

Grabbed these before running some errands. Couple of inches here in Bristol. Enjoy some photos from Colt State Park - got to test the new tires on some unplowed roads as well. Happy Holidays!

“God bless us every one”

It’s a Christmas (Eve) miracle!

I get the feeling this is how the board would have been if it existed in the 80’s and early 90’s when there were a lot of terrible winters for snow…

I swear I read an article a few months back, that I had to Google translate from French to English, that Euro upgrades always focus on verifying forecast improvements in the European domain first, even though it’s a global model. I couldn’t find it in my history to repost, so don’t hold me to it - someone with more understanding of modeling software development can feel free to correct that statement.

Every event is nuanced here due to the effects of being right next to the Atlantic and a stones throw away from the Gulf Stream. There are several demarcation lines for events depending on how cold the air mass is and the track of the storm. We probably only have a couple events a year, if we’re lucky, that mixed precipitation isn’t an issue somewhere in SNE. Sometimes it’s I-95, sometimes it’s the Mass Pike, sometimes it’s I-495. The south coast definitely has more issues with P-type than the east coast. In fact the east coast (or north shore and south shore) often picks up extra snow in Nor’Easters where ocean enhancement kicks in as the storms pull east. That never really happens at the south coast.

I would counter that while mild weather is nice, and definitely can be enjoyable, it’s not as interesting, especially in the winter. The places on earth that are both inhabitable and can experience snow is exceedingly small compared to places where weather can be mild and/or warm. Plus the current climate trends are pushing towards less cold and snowy weather. The conditions required for snow to fall are much more complex to forecast, especially for the areas on the fringes like ourselves. No one wants anyone silenced, it’s just the difference of walking by someone on the street and preferring they say “good day” rather than “**** you”.

Factually you’re not wrong. However, it’s quite clear that the context of your posts is to ruffle some feathers of the winter weather lovers. Sure, none of us can wish the weather we want into existence but thanks to Bing Crosby, Norman Rockwell, and the Little Ice Age some people feel comfort and nostalgic about a “White Christmas”, especially considering how shitty life has been for some the last couple of years. I live near Narragansett Bay so my chances of snow on the ground or it snowing on Christmas are less likely than @Typhoon Tipgeting his point across in three sentences or less, so it’s really no sweat off my back to see it being a low probability of it being snowy around the holidays. Your 850mb anomaly map wrapped with a heart instead of a bow was more meant to antagonize the board than factualize the forecast. Feel free to point out I’m wrong <3

@forkyfork’s mentor

Did the Polar Express in Woonsocket tonight with the family, could have used some light snow to set the mood. Instead it was drizzle and rain and 37 degrees and miserable. Ah well… at least the train ride was fun.

True. Just inserting some debate to the "it ain't gonna snow the next 3 weeks" discussion. Hard to tell if that's going to actually happen if you can't get any semblance of an actual weather pattern that might make sense past 10 days.

I wouldn't buy anything I'm seeing on the GFS ensembles after 12/10. Look at the northern hemisphere views and everything just stops moving after 12/10, like an entire hemispheric "block". It seems unusual and I don't think that's actually going to happen - unless it's some sort of common artifact of being the end of the ensemble run. Just something that stuck out to me - even on the 500 mb map...

I guess the hope would be to get the milder weather out of the way now so December can close out colder, and potentially snowier. No science behind this statement, just some logic and the hope the pattern changes at the right time. We could all use a snowy Holiday Season to set the tone…

Windy with drying pavement, 37.

Yay, not even flurries in RI lol…

We will be lucky to get 2-4” if this thing gets it’s act together, with maybe a little more in the higher elevations or where good dynamics setup. And that’s a big IF…

It’s a tradition… lol…

But Polar Vortex sounds cool, and makes any boring winter forecast more exciting!

Looks like it’s fixed…

Personally I vote for Billerica Stool Chart but that’s just me. Let’s leave the Bristol’s of the world out of the fecal judgement business.

Is there an issue with BOX AFD’s? No updates since Sunday 11/21 9:45 AM…

We really need a better name for that stool chart…