bristolri_wx

Looks like maybe a couple of inches of slush that get washed away for me. Enjoy that jack in NNE!

So where else can we discuss the scientific characteristics of this specific storm? LOL… I’m enjoying the discussion !

It’s a tool in the toolbox…

I wouldn’t necessarily characterize it as trolling but instead excessive optimism for a specific weather outcome.

To me looks like more members east at 18z, but the members that are west at 18z are farther west than 12z…

Can anyone explain what's going on with the pattern overall? Maybe it's something I'm noticing just now that's more common, or maybe it's different, but when you zoom out and do the Northern Hemisphere or North Atlantic views on the models, all the waves are cutting west instead of going out to sea. Is that just a bad orientation of the NAO causing that? Just referencing the latest op runs 500mb view and you see every wave of low pressure just rotating north in the Davis Straight instead of out into the Atlantic... for almost the entire 240/384... it piqued my interest...

Notable that the GFS and CMC have been in tandem on the Friday and Monday storms now for several cycles. Subtle differences but very similar outcomes/tracks...

Man, the CFS looks cold. Only a few above average days all the way through the first week of Feb. Not used to seeing that much cold actually forecasted on the CFS for the US, so it was noticeable.

If anyone is really really bored, feel free to check out my Twitch stream for a WS4000 simulator I setup, for fun and nostalgia... https://www.twitch.tv/riretrowx Just the Providence, RI forecast on loop with sappy 80's/90's instrumental music. I played around with it last year, decided to get it going again. For those that don't already know, the WS4000 was the device that cable companies used at their "head-ends" to inject the Local Forecast into their Weather Channel feeds. The theme being used is circa 1991. Enjoy!

Yeah winds have been gusty here all day too.

My pack is gone, except for a few piles from shoveling. It's been mid 40's here most of the day...

Not sure how... 10c is the next set of dotted lines to the right. The temp scale is at the bottom...

Don't get too depressed yet, highly unlikely that forecasted warm layer verifies like that...

Hits like 33F at 800mb... just barely...

I'm not that good at keeping track of them personally. I remember a lot of them when I was growing up (80s/90s) - a lot of 2-4" or 3-6" south of Providence and 1-3" north of Providence maps on TV when those storms would come around. Usually they would perform as expected.

Sorry man, Newport is never in a good spot, except for some of those redeveloping Alberta clippers that shoot by directly south of New England... not much better up here. We usually get 125-150% of whatever Newport gets in most situations.

It seems rather difficult to even figure out where that deformation band sets up in New England. It's different just about every time with these storms. It's also why we will never be able to predict snowfall to the inch - you get into the larger predictions and the range needs to be larger to account for the bands. It may take another decade of modeling resolution increases to get close to that point. I thought your forecast was on point and 6-12 seems valid for most of the area. The Cape busted high because that band was really juicy at the end and temps did not get quite as warm as expected.

Stop making RI look bad lol. Be happy with the 10". It's not a widespread 12" amount. Cumberland/Woonsocket is almost always in the higher end for RI. We barely have 6" down here and I'm only 22 miles away.

About 5-6" here in Bristol. What I expected. Probably same QPF as others but not quite as fluffy as others have reported which probably caused lower snowfall total. Still coming down moderately here in this last exiting band...

Not sure if there's enough cold air around for that one to be all snow.

I’m eyeballing 4” haven’t found the yard stick yet to measure. It’s 29 degrees here no issues sticking to the ground.

Yes, it’s due to the East Bay/West Bay de-snowification zone.

I believe it’s based off the same core as the GFS. It’s slated to replace the NAM in the next couple of years. I bet @OceanStWxknows more. I’ve been looking at it since it’s become available and anecdotally it’s seems to be an improvement over the NAM.

Cheer up your part of the state usually does pretty well in this sort of setup. Maybe you won’t be the New England jack pot but there’s a good chance you could be the RI one…

I was born in RI and have lived here all my life. While East Bay is a commonly used term, no one really uses West Bay to describe anything in the state.