bristolri_wx

Your not. If the prices went up 25% here, they went up 25% in Hawaii too

Chicken wings are now the most expensive part of the chicken, thanks to supply/demand. Been like that at the supermarket for a while now, even before the pandemic. Employment/supply chain issues making that even worse now.

He’s supports our military. He runs the Air Force MM5 on an old DEC VAX in his basement.

CFS has been pretty good this winter. @40/70 Benchmark mentioned it was pretty good in December, and January has been pretty good as well. Good in terms of forecasting the general pattern(s)…

In all seriousness, Michelin Defender LTX M/S - best all seasons I’ve ever owned have them on both SUV’s…

Yup been snowing in Newport for 3 hours. Heavy accumulations. Glad I have AWD.

Good point - didn't even think of that, forgot the weather sensor data on commercial flights. Also I think the fast flow that Tip is often talking about is a problem - all these waves are moving quickly and start out in locations where data sampling is minimal. The best guesses made by the models just aren't accurate for this type of pattern until things get closer to "go time".

All the models are having difficulty this winter. Clearly there's something going on with data ingested and such in accurately modeling east-coast snow storms this season. The problems may be related the increased resolution across the board on all the global models.

This doesn't look terrible for 1/22... there's potential there...

From the high level view, the major/trusted models were pretty good with todays (1/17) storm. We all questioned the unusual mechanics at first vs normal climo but other than shifting it east a little out of NY and into NNE, the track was pretty accurate, as was strength predictions.

Winds were cranking here overnight just a constant roar for several hours. Bridges were closed in RI - Newport, Jamestown, and Mt Hope. The latter just finally reopened… things have noticably calmed down now.

Nice haul for the White Mountains. Enjoy up there!

North of flatulenceville...

I know I'm only getting windy rain out of this, but man that 500mb vorticity map is the most interesting/unique thing I've seen in a while. I know @Typhoon Tip mentioned it several pages back. The 500 mb lows never phase, they cross each others tracks, the northern wave shoots ESE into the Atlantic and the southern wave goes due north and merges into that huge low over northern Canada. I'm sure it's happened before but that can't happen that often...

The bigger issue with shortwaves in the models these days seems to be accurately sampling and ingesting the data on them as they come ashore and being able to forecast what they do with this very progressive flow regime that we've had for what seems to be an extended period of time now... they seem to be crossing the country pretty quickly, I think it takes a while for the modeling to catch up with them in terms of forecasting snow, etc...

Says every bankrupt gambler...

You meant "not with that latitude!"

I made sure to post the good stuff - we need it after this storm.

Though more appropriate for this storm...

Yeah this airmass overhead is just “weird”, light north winds overnight, a storm to are east, brutal cold to our north, and still temps from from 850 down are above freezing…

This is definitely having an influence on our weather, for sure... that being said, if you go here and review the maps, the gulf stream has been above normal since at least 1996: https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data3/50km/image/twiceweekly/ssta/global/

Not just that. The models can only account for deterministic factors that humans can program into them, and the limited number of observations that feed into the baselines to generate the model output. There might be factors in modeling we're not accounting for yet that influence the weather, and we're not observing the weather in every location on the planet every second of the day for data input. So while the analogs might look "perfect" there are clearly other factors in play making this storm behave differently. The models either aren't seeing something or the atmospheric conditions, somewhere, are different than the analogs, causing this storm to behave as forecasted.