bristolri_wx

I just had to chug an IPA as I had Buoy 41002 in the “Blizzard of ‘22” drinking game.

I’m still skeptical on that. It would need to really be the perfect conditions. 12-15 to 1 is a more reasonable expectation and you still get a dumping of snow with that.

FYC… Sorry I see what you did there to my post. FV3 has had the toughest time…

FV3 based models have had a tough time with this one…

I’ve already called every airline in the US and homeland security to mark you with a cannot fly tag. Seriously the only time our forecast goes to shit is when you start planning to come back to RI. You cancelled your plans and suddenly the models improve again. STAY IN LA!

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The community here is incredible, and I learn a little more with every storm. Plus the humor and drama can’t be topped. I lurked a while before joining, and then lurked more before easing myself posting, and now this place is part of my daily routine, especially during the active weather months. So thanks to everyone who makes that possible here, regardless of storm outcomes. Now back to our regularly scheduled bi-polar model reaction, already in progress.

A forecast needs to be issued. Some of the stuff came in while they were probably issuing the forecast. For newscasters, they will have another model cycle before 11 pm to look at, as well as Radar and satellite. They will probably issue updated forecasts this evening if trends continue and actual weather conditions warrant it.

Models aren’t perfect as they are programmed by humans.

True. Then we have a problem if we can't predict what a major storm is going to do that affects approximately 58 million people within 12 hours of it starting.

I'm thanking all veterans.

Thank you for your service.

Light snow here for several hours in Newport. Sticking now, 31.

We are all friendly in here. Post what you want. Also, FU… :-)

It’s been lightly snowing here in Newport most of the morning. That’s a good sign in my opinion. The big ones, when summarized, always start out with light rain, drizzle, flurries, etc before all hell breaks loose. Totally unscientific analysis here, but I’m not fretting the Euro changes too much at the moment but do feel bad for those on the edge…

I don't believe that's what the NCAR employee is saying...

Cool, I'll get the lows in sync with my quadraphonic Blaupunkt in my Porsche 911.

Yeah. You can't blame them. If this does end up going sideways, then someone needs to figure out how we can get these models to be more in the ballpark on this type of weather event in the future. Yes, I know "these are tools and you need to know how to use them", but at the same time, I feel confident there's highly trained mets throwing shit in their offices wondering how the hell are they supposed to forecast with so many changes to the data 6-12 hours from when the storm is supposed to start based on location. I can't begin to imagine the amount of data that I don't have access to that there is to analyze when this is your trained profession and job to do. This isn't me melting - I think modeling is fascinating, and it's always interesting to me when they take a dump, especially very close in to an event. This is probably why NWS has been trying to be conservative with forecasts while we have been following along here.

Nah don't forget they are in the UK so they are running it on a cluster of BBC Micro's.

Gut feeling is it's in the same ballpark as 06z. It really hasn't budged much, just wobbles.

Those GDPS/GFS maps are getting better... and still have two more cycles to do so... and you can assume 10-1 won't cut it, as every single met has said there will be higher rates, more like 12-1 to 15-1... maybe more... so more interested in QPF maps than snow maps with low ratios at this point...

Let's keep in mind that the 10-1 maps are not gonna be accurate for this thing. Neither is the Kuchera's, but somewhere in the middle is where we end up for ratios.

FYC

All the high-res 12z models are inching westward and upward from their previous runs. Feeling better about that even as we have other models wobble a little back and forth... the 3K NAM looks awesome as well, once you assume ratios in many places will be higher than 10-1.