bristolri_wx

That band looks to be snow and headed directly towards @Ginx snewx. Someone is gonna pickup a quick couple of inches in that.

How do we know you’re not an AI bot from the future, here to warn us about snowless 70 degree January days in Central Park in the year 2029?

So just so I understand your thoughts on this topic… You are having difficulty using “AI” based weather models as a forecasting tool, because there isn’t as much published scientific research into how transformer models and training data affect/determine the model output results versus the established research on numerical based models? There have been published papers on this topic over the last few years circulating on the Internet. A lot of it is well over my level of understanding but it’s much more interesting learning about this usage of AI/machine learning than the typical slop being commercialized and promoted to the masses.

Brutal… lol…

I think the biggest issue with the AI models is that we/they call them AI models. They are just using a different way of processing the data. This isn't an endorsement or indictment of these models, but, I am a firm believer that hardware and software engineering has progressed enough since the first numerical models were developed that augmenting them with training data and neural processing, things that weren't available a decade ago, seems like a worthwhile endeavor. We had AI before chatbots became mainstream and it was called "machine learning", and the newer models are much closer to that than having a conversation with ChatGPT and it suggesting you kill yourself because you may not get 6" of snow again until the year 2028.

That's quite a mickey mouse pattern depicted on the models...

Patience is the key here. The CFS weeklies and Euro weeklies all showed a relaxation after New Year's with a change back to a colder pattern afterwards. The Euro weekly nailed the cold temps in Dec and this upcoming warm up back in early Dec. Let's enjoy a little bit of a thaw and see what comes on the other side of it. The weeklies show another several weeks of favorable conditions are incoming after it. I don't always have faith in the long term "climate" models but their 500mb depictions since December have been in the ballpark.

More like a knuckler or eephus…

Jan/Feb pattern forecast:

I believe the upcoming pattern could be characterized as a “January Thaw”. Not necessarily a bad sign for the rest of winter if we have one. The disappointment is amplified by the fact that we haven’t cashed din as much as we would like with the colder pattern in place, but it’s not unusual for a relaxation in the pattern to move in during January.

Had to measure in a few spots due to the wind blowing things around but 2” here, about a 1/2” in the last band. A little bit of a snow hole here during the first part of the storm.

Squall incoming. Will probably get as much out of this as the rest of the storm. Radar showed lots of weird micro-subsidence over my neck of the woods for most of the duration overnight. Eyeballed less than an inch will see how well the squall performs.

The PV always guaranteed to deliver!

It's not even January yet and this thread is: dumpster-fire-gif-14.mp4

Ditto. Some piles from shoveling. Otherwise gone...

https://www.youtube.com/@riretroweather/streams I grabbed the project linked to by @dendrite and run a 24x7 stream on YouTube for Bristol as the location from an old junky computer...

Always notable when New Bedford is 10 degrees colder than Newport... Calm wind means extra cold this evening...

Forecast: Verification: Grade B+ Biggest miss was Cape Ann area, where OES never materialized. Using a blend of the 3K NAM and HRRR as a smart idea, as HRRR was a little low for eastern areas and the 3K NAM was a little high. Forecast was accurate but would like to make a map farther out, maybe 24 hours, for the next one, as more of a challenge. This one was issued 3 hours before start time in CT...

The Mt. Bristol stake reads… (drumroll) 4” Cloudy with flurries here now. 22.

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-New_England-comp_radar-09_35Z-20251227_map_noBar-100-1n-10-100.mp4 CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-BOX-N0B-20251227-0944-200-100.mp4

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-New_England-comp_radar-03_15Z-20251227_map_noBar-100-1n-10-100.mp4

Red Alert! Screen Recording 2025-12-26 at 9.50.51 PM.mp4

Would love to be bullish for eastern areas but the NAM and the HRRR are not in sync east of the CT/RI border...