bristolri_wx

NAM 3K looks similar in coverage but less snow overall.

Compared to 12z looks farther north and east with heavier snow, but only at hour 12 on pivotal.

That wasn't the original question you asked - you asked why do we care what BOX says/does. Others have moved the goal posts to them being "official" forecast. I didn't make such a claim in my post. By the way, ask your home insurance company who "officially" issues tropical storm and hurricane forecasts that affect your deductable if you need to make a claim... it ain't anyone on this forum or Jim Cantore...

Just because you don't fall in those categories don't mean there aren't others out there that do. The general public consume weather forecasts in many different ways than we do here on this forum. I haven't found their forecasts overly bullish recently, but I would defer to you since you do this for a living and probably compare notes with what BOX is posting...

Others have chimed in already, but the reason why I defer to BOX for forecasts and warnings: They do this for a living, are trained, and focus their entire workday on generating forecasts. They have access to forecasting tools and data that most of us do not. They have experience with our climatology and know how to apply that to model generated forecasts that may get overlooked. They aren't generating forecasts with the requirement to generate ratings, page views, clicks, or advertising revenue. Just my opinion... They provide a valuable service to us, even those of us who have the interest in making our own forecasts. I don't mind the more conservative approach to their forecasting compared to what you get everywhere else these days. Some irony there...

"Straight Outta Toland, crazy mutha-f^&ka named Kevin. When the weather brings damage he's in heaven." EDIT: @CoastalWx beat me to it and was much better.

Euro looks to be north east as well through 30...

Clear trend NBM trending north and east with heaviest snow band every 6 hours on the last 4 runs...

Also looks like @Torch Tiger was posting to his sheet but the total wasn't being fixed on the scoreboard page, so I was able to correct that just now.

All set. Yes I can quickly make fixes. At least for this year only I can make changes once posted to make sure everything on the sheet stays formatted correctly.

No worries - just wanted to make sure it not working correctly wasn't the cause... :-)

Noticed some reporters are still at 0.00 @Torch Tiger, @moneypitmike, @CoastalWx, @40/70 Benchmark, @HoarfrostHubb, @SouthCoastMA let me know if there are problems with using your submission form (if that's what's preventing the reporting).

The NAM has been having trouble with this one. There are always a few storms every season where the NAM is totally out to lunch even when close to the start time. Hard to discount the GFS+Euro+HRRR all looking very similar overall...

LOL Cape Cod getting snow again while RI is getting none. We get it in all directions lol.

Official snow measurer Dean Wormer reports 0.0”.

Biggest issue in coastal plain may be surface temps. It may be snowing but might be tough to accumulate, especially during the daytime hours. NAM 3K soundings show 33/35 right at the surface though its colder throughout the rest of the column. If we can get it a pinch colder then maybe we can sneak in an extra inch or so.

You don’t even really need a map for the forecast: Coating to an inch: S/E I-95 1-3”: N/W of I-95 to I-90 2-4” I-90 N to NH/VT/ME Mountains 3-5”+ NNE mountains Probably won’t be model agreement until tomorrow, as again northern stream energy is windshield wipered on the models every time a reindeer farts in the wind. It might snow near Christmas. Expect disappointment and be pleasantly surprised if it does. Happy holidays!

Not sure how we have epic meltdown’s in a 1-3” region wide event.

NBM looks decent considering time range.

Unfortunately enembles don't look great at the moment either. Better than these super torchy ops runs though.