bristolri_wx

First - I hope Damar Hamlin is okay. Looks like the game is done for this evening... That being said. Addressing some of the "whining" and such on some of the other threads. I think we just need a return to the moderation we had a few years ago. Right now there's a bunch of discussion going on in the Obs/Discussion thread that should be in banter. The "panic" can be in banter too. I can remember seeing stuff moved in the past, perhaps that's all that's needed to get the Obs/Discussion thread more focused again. The "whining" used to be done in banter. Now banter seems to be treated as an off-topic thread, when it doesn't have to be. Look in Obs/Discussion now, there's a post about a boulder falling on the highway, and discussion about Hamlin there as well. Just my two cents. I fully acknowledge that it's easier said than done, and moderation can be a pain since it's volunteer based...

Yup. Whole household has been dealing with waves of colds/viruses for couple of months. We have been all sick since after Christmas. Worst cold/flu season in a long time.

Personally, it's nice to have it cold around the holidays, even if it isn't snowy. However, once New Year's passes, as much as I enjoy the interesting weather, if it's torching so-be-it. I'm sure I'm in the minority...

You all should be disappointed. Last years panic room opened on December 2. What a bunch of lame weenies letting 26 days of winter passing before starting to panic. What has happened to this forum???

Yeah I was scratching my head reading that and wondering if I was confused, lol…

May not look like Christmas, but it damn sure feels like it outside. Merry Christmas everyone!!

Winds noticeably picking up here. Not a fan of this particular output for the morning...

I would defer to the hi-res models to see if a snow squall line actually makes it through. Earlier this morning, only the RGEM showed it, all the US hi-res models (NAM 3K, HRRR, FV3) showed a squall line that was rain-only except for the highest elevations up north.

We are 67 pages in for a storm with not much (if any) snow for us but from a purely interesting weather perspective this has been an entertaining one to track and discuss. Maybe we get a Christmas miracle inch on the back side as that hell of a cold front comes through. Not often that Arctic air moves into our area from the southwest so there might still be some surprises at the end of this storm. High gusts still on the table in the coastal plain as well. Stay tuned!!

Wow, those 925mb maps on Pivotal look a little crazy. No guarantee that 925 winds mix down to the surface, but I'm looking at almost 36 hrs of 50kt+ winds at my location so lots of opportunities for high gusts. EDIT: The wind gust maps on weather.us are not encouraging either. What a mess...

Look at the temps at the same frame. 10 degrees in Nashville while it's 60 in Providence. Still not to far away from a solution where we might get an inch or two as the front comes through. Just need that squall line to hold up. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day look COLD.

First time in weeks I had some time to watch the Pats - caught last five minutes. Terrible.

That little tropical low has been there last few runs lol…

I dunno, not sure what the problem is. We are still going to be getting impactful weather from a powerful storm during the timeframe mentioned. Just not a big snow storm for most. This thread served a purpose, discussion of one developing storm.

OEM tires are usually garbage. Treadlife is usually 45k to get them through a three year lease. I highly recommend these: https://www.michelinman.com/auto/tires/michelin-defender-ltx-m-s Have these on my CR-V and RAV4. Good all season tire especially for winter and long tread life as long as you rotate regularly.

Yeah that could blow at some point. More likely at high speeds or in warmer weather. You should replace that tire ASAP IMO for you and your vehicles safety.

Sorry, call me an optimist but this is all I can think in my head after reading this forum the last few days: Maybe Winter 22-23 will turn out to be a turd, but we have had several good to great winters that started with shitty Decembers and grinch storms right before Christmas. Can’t give up on things less than a third of the way through.

It’s a volatile pattern for the model accuracy in the medium to long range. Things don’t look good but I wouldn’t give up for another 48 hours or so if your hope is for a colder snowier outcomes.

Down in the coastal plain It was always forecasted as rain So there was no pain When the snow Did not show.

Personally I look at it on TT and Pivotal, but I don’t think it has a lot of weight on its own. I believe the biggest use case for many of the WRF based models are being part of the SREF and HREF ensemble forecast packages. I’m sure there are mets here who have more facts to back that up than I do.

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/docs/NCEP_PDD_MAG.pdf