bristolri_wx

Sorry, call me an optimist but this is all I can think in my head after reading this forum the last few days: Maybe Winter 22-23 will turn out to be a turd, but we have had several good to great winters that started with shitty Decembers and grinch storms right before Christmas. Can’t give up on things less than a third of the way through.

It’s a volatile pattern for the model accuracy in the medium to long range. Things don’t look good but I wouldn’t give up for another 48 hours or so if your hope is for a colder snowier outcomes.

Down in the coastal plain It was always forecasted as rain So there was no pain When the snow Did not show.

Personally I look at it on TT and Pivotal, but I don’t think it has a lot of weight on its own. I believe the biggest use case for many of the WRF based models are being part of the SREF and HREF ensemble forecast packages. I’m sure there are mets here who have more facts to back that up than I do.

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/docs/NCEP_PDD_MAG.pdf

Are people still pissed about the recent GFS upgrade?

Bing Crosby has entered that chat.

I weenied you for that post only because I can’t weenie myself for being excited about that map lol!

You end up a meteorologist? This is why support systems are in place, to keep our world safe from this result.

Wowza. Aren’t those wunderground forecasts generated from the Amiga model?

Last years Winter Panic thread was started on 12/1/21, so we're two weeks late this year. Time to induce!

Interesting information... taken with a grain of salt. https://www.washington.edu/news/2022/10/03/study-suggests-la-nina-winters-could-keep-on-coming/

Juicy band overhead. Making up for the snow hole earlier lol…

Snow hole… 33… holding steady at 1/2”

Pleasantly surprised with the 1/2” on the grass here. Not much sticking to pavement. We’ve had a few more lulls here than others (as usual). Definitely feels festive out there.

We are going to be going through a pattern transition. The operational surface maps are going to be hot garbage outside of five days while this is taking place. I wouldn't take anything verbatim outside of five days at the moment. Stick with ensembles days 6+...

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn22-104_gfs.v16.3.0.pdf

This can't be stressed enough! Regardless of the outcome, there's definitely more chances for wintery weather coming up based on the pattern forecasted compared to the December 2021 pattern which was terrible for us.

Wow, can't believe that the December thread is 17 pages long already and it's not even 12/1. Even the last 18 hours worth of posts have been kind of crazy. I'm not sure what the fuss is about. I'm no met, but it's just nice to be in the ballpark of a favorable pattern in December, regardless of the outcome. Go back the last few years, and there wasn't anything like this really modeled or discussed in December model runs. Even if it doesn't turn out exactly as we hope, it should be a volatile pattern with chances for all sorts of weather outcomes. It definitely does not look like last year, so already that's going to be an improvement. I'm just hoping for seasonable weather around Christmas. Whether there's snow on the ground, that's always tough, especially where I am, but there's been too many grinch storms last few years where I'm driving home on Christmas Eve at 10PM and its 50 degrees and foggy. If this anticipated pattern is delayed a few days, I'm not sweating it, with the hope it lasts through Christmas, even if it ends up dry and cold. Back to your regularly scheduled early December trolling and bickering.

Fixed that for you.

George says we can all get along...