bristolri_wx

Pingers coming down at time mixed with rain. Wind picking up… USDW+ 37 degrees.

I think your mistake there is “always”. Nothing with the weather is “always”, it’s chaos and more chaos, and sometimes the chaos provides more persistent results. Other changes are underway so the SE ridge persistence may break at some point soon.

Great, as long as Ortiz and Mueller are not on deck!

He took it in stride. Did his business then went right for the door to get back in the house!

Well that wasn’t enjoyable… lol…

Ugh dog is barking to go outside... guess he doesn't care it's -3/-24 out...

I'm surprised at the number of people giving up and selling (ie "not invested"). Canada continues to look cold the next 5-6 weeks. Threading the needle has moved from a sewing needle to a knitting needle. Sure, it's gonna be AN at times with the SE ridge, but, at the same time, there could easily be a couple of moderate to strong storms that develop between the cold air to our north, the ridge to the south, and the +3 to +5C SST's in the Atlantic near us. That ridge isn't going to be maxing at all times throughout Feb, and the despite the some of the maps shown recently, the ensembles show the southeast and the mid-atlantic warming the most, not us. Given our luck, it could all go to shit, but, if you want to see a little more snow this season south of the pike, there's definitely some hope. Can't call the rat just yet...

Get a sixer for the weekend...

Sorry, meant 0" of snow (as in the Euro map recently posted at 240 hrs). Maps of the GFS showing 20-30" of snow were weenied immensely last week, if I'm not mistaken. Both are probably wrong, that was more of my point...

So we jump on 10 day forecasts when they forecast 0, and dismiss the ones that had 30” of snow? LOL… let’s call it a rat when it’s done. I remain optimistic even with a SE ridge. There will be snow in Feb and March for all of New England, including S and SE areas.

Congrats on the baby. Nice to see someone else on the board interested in Fantasy Baseball as well, which is the real fantasy sport IMO. The snow will come when we're least expecting it or paying attention. That's how it works. I think Feb and March will be better than Dec and Jan, not because we're due, but because there is a pattern change going on that could work in our favor much more so than what we've been seeing the last two months...

Queue the Blizzard of 2023 on Feb 17th, or whenever your trip begins. LOL!

I’m still optimistic we get some snow between now and April 1. All the lovely maps that show the west cold show cold in Canada as well. That’s a definite pattern shift. We fight the SE ridge in mid Feb but it seems to cool down afterwards heading into March. We shall see.

Head Meteorologist Vernon Wermer with the forecasted final snowfall totals for Southern RI and SE MA for tomorrow:

We don’t need anything from Siberia, they can keep their cold. All we really need is for Canada to stop averaging +10-20 anomalies for weeks at a time. The air masses in place every time we get an event have literally been hot garbage. There’s nothing to tap into to generate snow… Siberia and Canada can be cold at the same time, it doesn’t have to be an either/or scenario.

I'm still optimistic about the next 6 weeks. One thing that continues to be shown is that Canada is finally going to cool off. Yes, the little below normal stretch in late Jen/early Feb is not sustained in the US, but it does seem to be in most of Canada, based on the CFS weeklies and the 35 day GEFS, and even when eastern Canada warms a little, its not torched like it has been. While it might not be good for sustained snow pack, we're going to have our chances with storms, especially as the SE ridge modulates - when it fades a little we might get our chances at some coastals with some cold air to feed them, even if its a positive anomaly overall for the month. I may still be S-O-L in the coastal plain for most of the upcoming chances, but, overall for New England it's a much better pattern for potential snow. I do like the colder trend at the end of the month as well. Just my two cents... We'll see how I feel about this prognostication on March 1!

Axl lied to me, cold November rain does last forever. Congrats Pike north! Hopefully the coastal plain will get more than an inch of snow at some point the remainder of the season. Gradient blows here…

Pingers here, 32.

I will do my formal observation here that we have a nice coating on the grassy areas, and bands have been moving in then getting shredded by that dry air. I’m really on the edge here… but some nice January weather regardless. 32 here.

Perhaps my sarcasm was too understated for the recent weather pattern. The overall vibe here lately is we will never see snow again. Thought I could spice things up here… considering the dire conversation. That being said it was probably posted in the wrong thread…

Hey it’s doing something funny outside. Not sure what it is. White stuff flying out of the sky and sticking to the ground. Crazy stuff!

Wow I thought I had deleted that post quickly! I mistakenly thought you posted a CFS v2 output map, which usually tends to run warm. (As others mentioned, “Climate Forecast System) The extended 00z GEFS is relatively new since the upgrade to the GFS last year…

That's quite an autumn nor'easter out there tonight!