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bristolri_wx

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Everything posted by bristolri_wx

  1. bristolri_wx
    And 5 hours makes a big difference. HRRR now has the low about 100 miles east of where it was previously modeled when I posted over the next few hours, out east of Chatham rather than crossing the canal. Probably means less snow for my location, maybe an inch if we're lucky...
  2. bristolri_wx
    Yeah, just feels like someone is going to get a surprise 4"-8" out of this where 1-3" or 2-4" is being forecasted....
  3. bristolri_wx
    The HRRR still makes the finale for this storm interesting for the coastal plain. Pinwheeling the phasing lows south through Mass. Bay and the Cape. Just to the west of that things will be quite "violent" for a few hours... We are in the HRRR wheelhouse now inside of 12 hrs so lets see how well it forecasts this...
  4. bristolri_wx
    Just curious, did this run of the NAM have the recon data?
  5. bristolri_wx
    Usually it's the next model runs after all the data is ingested.
  6. bristolri_wx
    They probably have just as much interest as we do as to why the models can't figure this one out in a more agreeable way. Perhaps extra data can assist... The storm is going to be affecting several million people in some way.
  7. bristolri_wx
    Forecasting weather is not my day job, so with that caveat, it's definitely interesting to see a storm that's actually starting where the models can't come to a consensus on a 12-36 hour snowfall forecast. Amazing.
  8. bristolri_wx
    It's looking like the coastal plain is kinda cooked on this one. My expectation will be for a surprise if we get some snow as the storm moves east rather than disappointment in not getting the snow others are receiving. Not surprising considering it's mid-March and there's really not much arctic air around.
  9. bristolri_wx
    It's in 24 hour increments. They don't have total snowfall maps for HREF, at least not for the price I want to pay ($0). First map is 12z Mon to 12x Tue, the second is 12z Tue to 12Z Wed.
  10. bristolri_wx
    You can see why the bust potential in both directions exists. It's warmth vs rates. Probably anywhere in the coastal plain that's close to freezing and gets under a heavy band risks switching over to very heavy wet snow as it brings the cold down to the surface. And at the same time, the warmth could win out and that's just all heavy rain. Challenging forecast!
  11. bristolri_wx
    Juicy...
  12. bristolri_wx
  13. bristolri_wx
    HREF's... don't think we need the final pane...
  14. bristolri_wx
    As said many times in this forum, no one lives at 500mb.
  15. bristolri_wx
    https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/
  16. bristolri_wx
    Could be but if you switch the maps back two days it's been consistently on the low side for snow for most of eastern new england. Had more in western parts a day or two ago but has scaled that back.
  17. bristolri_wx
    I think it's the thermal profiles. 2m and 925mb is warm for most of the storm, so its seeing rain.
  18. bristolri_wx
  19. bristolri_wx
    Point taken, but that looks more like an output error on TT because it's on the edge of it's data domain than the model itself. Same frame on NE view:
  20. bristolri_wx
    The herp has some big winners and big losers (coastal plain)...
  21. bristolri_wx
    The Canadian models have been consistent. So they need to be weighed this time around a little more than usual. And going back several years, the Canadian models have "hit" on storms in the past. Just not as many as the Euro or the GFS.
  22. bristolri_wx
    And just like that 00z models start rolling in and it's a slightly different story than 18z...
  23. bristolri_wx
    I wouldn't give up on larger numbers south of the pike just yet. Would like to see one or two more outputs of garbage before locking that in. Still lots of atmospheric uncertainty...
  24. bristolri_wx
    I haven’t checked in for a few days… excited to see the models for early next week… then this…
  25. bristolri_wx
    Heavy pingers mixed with rain here, 33. It’s a loud night between the sleet and the wind gusts…
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