I’m more in your camp than Kevin’s but I feel like I need to see how summer and fall play out to buy in. That cooler and drier pattern locked in for about 5 months before letting up this past year. If it’s warm and wet for several months going into November and will take more than models and analogs to buy in.
I’m not going on anything other than it looks like we could be in a warm wet pattern for a while over the next several months, which shouldn’t be an influence on the upcoming Winter… but…