Winter Wizard

Light snow just began in Annapolis

Hour 33 on the NAM: compared to 12z, precip is noticeably slower to arrive and confluence is stronger over Maine.

Annapolis, MD: 1/25: 0.3” 1/31-2/2: 3.5” 2/7: 1.3” TOTAL: 5.1” Bonus - State College PA: 12/16-17: 15.0”

Just wait until you see the reports coming out the eastern Shore and Sussex County, DE

1.3” looks like the final total in Annapolis and you can hear the drip, drip, drip outside melting it away. Such is life when you live close to the Bay.

Annapolis sleeting

Pushing 2” in Annapolis with a nice band coming in.

I’m in Annapolis and generally the farther north and east you are, the better banding you’ll see. Being against the Bay also keeps us a bit warmer though due to the marine layer so we may mix for longer.

Stronger ridge would lead to a more amplified ULL and probably would support the more tucked in solutions. But again, this is purely anecdotal for now.

850 mb winds on the NAM are ripping southeast at over 40 knots 0z Monday which torches the mid-levels I-95 south and east. This is significantly higher than any other guidance has and the SLP track is also farther west. Also, checking out the obs: this is anecdotal, but could support a deeper ULL:

All snow in Annapolis

I think this is just a matter of perception - keep in mind that a negative bust for you usually means a positive bust for someone else. Additionally, there is still a margin of error even in short range, and slight adjustments to a storm's track have significant implications. The January 2015 bust in NYC is a great example of this, same with Boxing Day 2010 for our area. If we think about recent storms like March 2017 and the one this week, it could be that NWP models underestimate mid-level warmth, as evidenced by the sleet line going farther north and west than expected. This storm is also another example of how deceiving snow maps can be in marginal setups, as many of them count sleet as snow and that inflates totals.

January 2000 is the ultimate example of a positive bust in our area. The storm was predicted to go out to sea but instead continued northward and dumped over a foot of snow across much of the area. As @MillvilleWx alluded to, NWP models have substantially increased in accuracy since then, so such a large-scale bust likely won't happen again. November 1987 I imagine was a similar type of positive bust. November 2018 is also a good recent example: the storm ended up colder than expected, so areas along I-95 and north and west got quite a bit more than forecast. December 2013 is a different case since that was the result of a mesoscale band in an area of strong convergence. - those types of busts can still happen as models have still have difficulty pinpointing the magnitude and location of those bands. Just ask Binghamton, for example. In February 2009, there was an inverted trough that set up near Philly and dropped a surprise 8 inches over the city.

Yup, it's gorgeous out. It's been way too long since central PA has been a jackpot zone for a Nor'easter. If only this could have happened when I was a student...

Some reports of over 40 inches in that area! https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BGM ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...New York... ...Broome County... 2 SW Nws Binghamton 42.0 in 1028 AM 12/17 1 SSW Port Crane 41.0 in 0945 AM 12/17 Public Endwell 41.0 in 0859 AM 12/17 Trained Spotter 2 E Vestal 41.0 in 0830 AM 12/17 NWS Employee 2 S Binghamton 41.0 in 0800 AM 12/17 Public Endicott 40.5 in 0550 AM 12/17 Trained Spotter Nws Binghamton 40.0 in 0100 PM 12/17 Official NWS Obs 2 SW Vestal Center 40.0 in 0730 AM 12/17 NWS Employee

Anyone down to go golfing today? Jk I estimate the final total was between 17 and 18 inches just north of State College- unfortunately my ruler is buried underneath somewhere so can't give an exact total. A storm for the books for many, hope you guys enjoyed! Well worth the trek back to Happy Valley.

Well I ended up making the trek back to State College for this one and it did not disappoint. We weren't quite Binghamton, but I estimate we got around 17-18" of powder. Going to be bittersweet heading back home to Maryland, but after missing out on the Blizzard of 2016, I am quite content. Hope y'all that still cashed in enjoyed and hopefully we'll have more chances in the coming weeks.

Last measurement in State College was 14.5” around 12:30. Still moderate snow falling.

Calling it a foot in State College as of 9:30.

Close to 5" as of 5:00 and even heavier rates than before.

2:30 update: +SN, 2.5" on the ground in State College. Visibility under 1/2 mile with the best rates of the day.

2:30 update: +SN, 2.5" on the ground. Best rates of the day so far.

0.8" in State College as of 12:40.

The initial snow band means business, solidly -SN and already have light accumulations on all surfaces.

Snow has commenced in State College. Earlier than expected.