Winter Wizard

The upcoming pattern certainly seems like December deja vu. EPO block rivaling December's (which has trended stronger every day since 0z Thursday) will dump the extreme cold into the N Rockies and Plains but will struggle to make it to the East Coast until probably the end of next week thanks to the SE ridge. Then there will be a few days below average, but as blocking retreats, we return to the canonical Nina pattern and I think the Northeast torches yet again while the West is cool and stormy. If things align, I think there could be a good opportunity to score something in the 2/2-2/7 timeframe as the Metro rides the boundary between polar cold to N and W and the lingering SE ridge, but after that, I don't see much to be enthused about.

At first glance, I could see this playing out similarly to the Super Bowl storm last year, which clocked the South Shore, in a high end scenario. Certainly have a pronounced FGEN signal but soundings show a good amount of dry air in the mid-levels.

IMO the cold period, if it does happen, wouldn't be until the 28th or so. I suspect the back end of January follows a similar progression to December where the West cools down first once the Asian-Pac jet relaxes, likely around 1/20, then slowly progresses eastward. After that, Nina climo generally favors a return to a -PNA pattern and strong SE ridge for February. It isn't pretty.

Pretty clear differences between the EPS and GEFS evolution...EPS has a notably stronger -PNA signal which enhances the SE ridge and takes the mean storm track farther N while the GEFS is neutral to slightly positive. You would want that parent low to decay sooner, closer to OH/KY border rather than MI to get any appreciable frozen precip into the Mid-Atlantic. Even then, it would favor the typical climo areas - at the current depiction, it's difficult for me to get enthused if I lived near the coast.

I'd probably push the first two windows back a few days, otherwise this seems pretty solid to me. Models have had a very tough time handling the Pacific so far this Fall and have been too quick to erode the -PNA again. I'm optimistic that we'll at the very least go neutral by 12/20 while EPO turns back to the negative phase and blocking retrogrades to the Hudson Bay. That's a pretty good look for some potential late month fireworks but no doubt there will be more meltdowns before then.

Right around 2” here in West Somerville, maybe a bit more. Slow start but ended up exceeding expectations.

Stuck in the screw zone here in downtown Boston.

Surprised to see so little discussion about Wednesday. Easily could be a moderate event for southern regions.

Unless we tack on a few tenths this should be the final total. Solid storm.

The CF is pretty solid here in Somerville. Probably above 8” at this point.

Hi-res guidance is pretty insistent on some OES this afternoon and evening. Maybe we squeak out another inch or two along the eastern MA coastline?

7.3", sleet.

This is where the 495 crew should clean up. Mix line seems to be pretty much overheard in Somerville.

Getting much fattier flakes now.

Got around 6" in Somerville, MA. Still coming down hard.

Heavy snow Somerville, MA

Going with this as my stab at the forecast. Could see shifts either way, but hedging toward the warmer solutions for coastal SNE.

Synoptically the NAM did come closer in line with other guidance in showing a quicker decaying primary and secondary development at 40N. It’s still tenuous for areas on the fringe but probably fair to shift a 6”+ range south a bit with medium-high confidence.

The NAM is still a bit of an outlier, but is an entirely plausible scenario where the primary low chugs way ahead into NY state while any secondary low develops far too late to be meaningful.

It's wild reading some of these complaints after living through a bunch ratters of winters in the Mid-Atlantic.

I’m skeptical of anything more than isolated double digit totals but a widespread swath of 6”+ in New England seems logical. My initial hunch is it’s overdone from the Pike south and you shift it north a bit, more like a sloppy few inches for BOS. Going to be a very sharp southern gradient.

It's here and it's legit

34.8" in West Somerville, MA

Around 4.5” in Somerville

Measured a bit over 2” in Somerville. Uncanny how every storm this season turns into a South Shore jackpot.