Winter Wizard

CSU AI models are pretty bullish for the severe weather and tornado potential on Friday. Maybe overdone, but that is always a concern whenever a tropical system passes to your west.

Yeah, it's very much a pick your poison situation. A near miss for Jamaica would likely translate to worse impacts for the Yucatan. And a stronger storm is more likely to skirt northward between the eastern US ridge and central US trough, increasing the odds of US impacts. The west/weak and north/strong spread is pretty evident on the 12z models.

Wasn't a perfect environment but it did manage to go far enough south to dodge all the traditional early season barriers, including the area of high shear. Not to mention the consequences of record warm SSTs for this time of year.

It cannot be emphasized enough how unbelievable this is. Not much to say except Beryl has defied pretty much all sense of climatology and conventional wisdom. It's going to be a long season.

Can you provide the source of this data? Image or link?

Pivoting to Bar Harbor and will likely move north from there on Eclipse Day. The farther east you can get, the better I think.

I decided to abandon ship in Texas and opt for New England. Logistically pretty easy to pull off, and it's hard to ignore the data. I actually think DFW area northeastward to southern Illinois could also be a sweet spot since they're between the two shortwaves. Best of luck everyone.

I was supposed to go to Texas for this but decided to pull the plug and stick to New England. Aiming for Maine since I think the eastern side of the blocking ridge has the best odds of surviving any last second trends.

I decided to pull the plug and go to Northern New England instead of Texas. Logistically is pretty easy to switch, and I think the omega block should hold strong, at least if you're in Vermont and Maine. I actually think Arkansas to southern Illinois may also be a sweet spot sitting in between the troughs. Best of luck everyone.

So the plan is to fly into San Antonio on Thursday and leave Tuesday - I've had that flight and hotel booked for months. If we get rerouted, I think the most likely plan would be to spend Sunday driving toward AR. If it turns out we need to be in MO/IL, may actually end up leaving Saturday or just get up at the crack of dawn and push as far as we can. Ideally, if we have to move, it would be within reasonable distance of STL or MEM, so I'd fly from there to San Antonio Tuesday evening, then push my flight back to Wednesday evening. The absolute last resort would be to fly into New England and head north but logistically that's very difficult for our group, who's coming from all over the US. Any chance you could get in earlier?

I don't think the cloud cover maps are worth anything at this lead, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't nervous for TX. Pretty overwhelming signal for at least some cloud cover if not precip at the leeside of the trough. Need that thing to hold off 24 hours or so. Odds have of sunny skies have definitely increased in New England and near the Lakes with the ridge, but I caution that mesoscale processes that can't be sniffed yet have often ruined sunny days. I would not really feel comfortable on the northern edge just knowing climo. I'm staying in San Antonio but bracing for a backup in Arkansas. Backup to the backup is in Illinois or Missouri. And final option would be Boston to northern New England. Hopefully doesn't come to that.

Deterministic models tend to vastly overestimate cloud cover in the long range. We won't truly have an idea what the situation will be until we start to get into hi-resolution model territory. I would not be concerned on the southern edge of the path yet, nor would I be spiking the football in New England or near the Lakes. There are lots of ways that this could still go wrong on the mesoscale. I say this as someone flying to San Antonio, who is prepared to reroute if need be.

When I first saw the headline I imagined it was like the Philly bridge collapse last year and that it was only a small segment of a bridge that would be repaired in a few weeks. Seeing the entire thing collapsed made my jaw drop. I've taken that bridge a few times to go home when I lived in Maryland, and whenever I drove on that or the Bay Bridge at night, I always felt a little uneasy for that reason. I've felt that way ever since the Minneapolis bridge collapse a while back. Just a terrible tragedy and there are going to be significant supply chain and economic ramifications around here. Not to mention traffic through the tunnels, which are a major artery for East Coast travel, will be even more of a nightmare.

Nice. I'll be flying in Thursday and staying until Tuesday. Sunday and Monday will depend on weather conditions, but probably going to be somewhere within a few hours of downtown. Very excited, never been to that area before.

I'll be in San Antonio for this. Would be nice to run into some of you folks down there.