hudsonvalley21

Who knows. We’ll see. Currently SBCAPE at 4000 and SBLI at -7.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 410 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and western Connecticut Western Massachusetts Extreme northern New Jersey Eastern New York Extreme northeast Pennsylvania Western Vermont * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the watch area the remainder of this afternoon and early evening. A few tornadoes will be possible along with damaging straight-line winds and isolated large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Saranac Lake NY to 25 miles south of Poughkeepsie NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 410 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and western Connecticut Western Massachusetts Extreme northern New Jersey Eastern New York Extreme northeast Pennsylvania Western Vermont * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the watch area the remainder of this afternoon and early evening. A few tornadoes will be possible along with damaging straight-line winds and isolated large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Saranac Lake NY to 25 miles south of Poughkeepsie NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

Mesoscale Discussion 1377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020 Areas affected...much of New York State...central/eastern Pennsylvania...and northern New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021800Z - 022000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in convective coverage/intensity is expected through the afternoon. A WW issuance will be considered for parts of the region. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic and satellite imagery indicate a few areas of deepening convection from near SYR to near GFL in northern portions of New York State. Another area of convection was located near BDL in Connecticut. This deepening convection is likely attributed to a few factors, including surface heating/destabilization, subtle low-level confluence/convergence over the open warm sector, and the approach of a mid-level shortwave trough centered over western New York. Instability increases with southward extent, with MUCAPE values as high as 3000 J/kg across eastern Pennsylvania and between 1000-2000 J/kg along and south of a warm front located from near MSS to near BAF. The expectation is that convection will continue to gradually deepen in an environment with sufficient shear for updraft rotation, with damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes possible given veering flow with height and appreciable low-level shear - especially near the warm front. These expectations are further supported by recent CAMs, with a couple of corridors most likely to materialize into strong to severe convection - one across northern New York State and another across Massachusetts/Connecticut and vicinity. Over the course of the afternoon, one or two WWs will be considered for at least portions of this region pending convective trends.

Super dry here too. Hopefully we will get some of the tropical action to give things a drink. We have a chance before Isaias on Sunday but might be on the severe side. A section of Upton AFD, LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Although the focus of the long term remains Isaias, there is the potential for a round of significant severe weather on Sunday. A warm front is progged to be lifting thru the area on Sun. The 12Z NAM builds SBCAPE to over 3000 J/kg. Sufficient shear puts the BRN firmly in the supercell range. In addition, A high EHI embedded in this regime will add a tor threat. It is still too far out to have high confidence in the details and timing, but the data suggests the ingredients are potentially there for a svr wx outbreak. Future forecasts and SPC outlooks will refine this threat over the weekend. Pops were limited to 50 percent based on the uncertainty, although the NBM suggests categorical across the interior.

DCA +2.1 NYC +2.4 BOS +2.3 ORD +1.8 ATL +1.6 IAH +1.9 DEN +0.1 PHX +1.3 SEA +0.3

74 was the low here. It was 81 at 11pm last night. Thank god for air conditioning.

Definitely felt the heat today. 97 is impressive.

Got you beat again, 93 here.

Got you both beat. .05

Yup, fringe city up this way. Not a bad thing at all.

Looks like we will tonight. Nice batch over by Port Jervis at this time. Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 948 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 NYZ062-PAZ048-130245- Sullivan NY-Pike PA- 948 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTIES... At 948 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a large area of showers covering South Central Sullivan County, as well as most of Pike County. The showers should continue spreading northeast into the remainder of Sullivan County late this evening.

That sucks . It came thru here with stronger winds than what I had yesterday too. 0.91 yesterday and .42 today so far.

.73”

Maybe tomorrow will be better. SPC AC 101731 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 While T.C. Fay is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move quickly into Canada Saturday morning, rich low-level moisture and modestly enhanced low/mid-level flow will likely remain in its wake from the northern Mid Atlantic into portions of New England, in advance of the shortwave trough moving eastward from the OH Valley. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected by late morning/early afternoon, with the strongest storms capable of localized wind damage. And a section of Upton’s AFD SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Despite the exit of Fay, a moist airmass will remain in place and allow for destabilization during the day. At the same time, an upr trof will approach from the w. As cin erodes, tstm initiation over the cwa is likely. The 12Z NAM indicated around 3000 CAPE in the aftn and eve. The main limiting factor is whether any earlier convection works over the atmosphere sufficiently. The primary svr threats will be damaging winds and hail. Severe wording and damaging winds have been included in the fcst for wrn areas to highlight the threat. Any activity is modeled to diminish in the overnight period as dry air sweeps in at the mid lvls. The NBM was used for temps. Heat indices will be close to 95 for much of the area. An advy may be needed based on the 2 day criteria Sat and Sun.

wdrag posted in the other thread that he had 1.58 over in Wantage. So that’s over towards his direction.

Well needed. The grass is coming back somewhat.

It was around an hour and a half to hit that. So far today I’m at 0.60 and it’s taken 5 hours It feels like drizzle compared to the other day.

Doubt it will match my 3.82 from the other day. 0.16 so far

0.16 here so far. We’ll see what happens.

Agree with your thoughts about the flooding especially in my area due to the 3.8” of rain from the other day. Ground is saturated in certain areas. Even areas such as the Delaware River out in your area could have some flash flooding. Campgrounds have the seasonal folks there. Hopefully they are mindful.

Sure was. Just got done draining down the pool.

3.78 in the Davis so far since 12:30 pm. Currently a few rumbles of thunder with light rain.

Not good at all. Hopefully we can dodge the bullet Friday night into Saturday. Currently, light rain with rumbles of thunder. 3.78 in the bucket.

Wow can you post an image or link? My total is 3.68 just winding down for now.