
hudsonvalley21
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July 2024 temperature forecast contest
hudsonvalley21 replied to Roger Smith's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
DCA: +4.3NYC: +2.9BOS: +2.9ORD: +2.4ATL: +2.6IAH: +2.2DEN: +2.5PHX: +2.3SEA: +0.7 -
Glad to hear no damage, hopefully you get the power back on soon. 0.51” in the bucket. My Daughter is by Craigsville rd and luckily did not loose power.
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Had gusts to 40+. Not much in thunder and a moderate rain.
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Had a total of 0.71 here.
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Temps dropped off quickly last night. I was at the Fair oaks drive-in, it was 73 at 8:00 and dropped of to 59 by 11:30. Bottomed out to 54 IMBY.
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0.49” will do it here.
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Agree, 0.21” in the bucket from the first line.
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Even looking at Mount Beacon from Newburgh’s water front, there’s large patches completely stripped. Large numbers of those leaf eaters this year.
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Those suckers had a field day around West Point. A bunch of trees stripped.
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Had a quick shower here around 9am. Still under a heavy cloud deck currently.
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And the HRDPS at 5 pm. Most of the other mesoscale models are showing activity at that time. Had a quick shower around 9 am, still a heavy cloud deck up this way currently.
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The Tent Caterpillar showing this year is the largest I’ve seen in the last few years. See a bunch of crabapple trees stripped throughout the area. The HRRR is showing a few showers moving thru later this afternoon and early evening, hopefully it will wash some of that poop away.
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Thank goodness I only got 0.04” in the bucket. Saves me from shoveling the driveway
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0.04” here.
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0.86 here.
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Orange County NY Fire Calls Mutual Aid: Monroe Fire - UTV Warwick Fire - UTV Chester Fire - UTV Tuxedo Fire - UTV Florida Fire - UTV (Unable to Crew) South Blooming Grove Fire - UTV Pine Island Fire - UTV Woodbury Fire - UTV Goshen Fire - UTV (Unable to Crew) Cronomer Valley Fire - UTV New Hampton Fire - UTV (Unable to Crew) Salisbury Mills Fire - UTV Johnson Fire - UTV Sloatsburg Fire - 1 Engine to Standby 36-1 36-3 36-15 36-16 Orange County Field Comm
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Just some light rain and a few rumbles here with the first cell. It was a little rowdy in the Greenwood Lake area with some trees down, this one slid just to our south. We’ll see what happens with the second round of activity that’s on our doorstep.
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Hopefully they check the radar before heading out.
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Upton’s thoughts, a section of their AFD below, Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 802 PM EDT Wed May 22 Some showers and thunderstorms have fired up west of the area along and ahead of a pre frontal trough. Some of this activity could make it into western portions of the area overnight, mainly north and west of NYC, but is not expected to be severe with a lack of shear. The better chances for showers and thunderstorms for our area will be as the cold front starts to slowly move through the area Thursday morning. PoPs have trended earlier in the day with a shift in timing in the 12z CAMs. Given the environment, with MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear increasing to around 35-40 kt, some storms could become strong to severe. The SPC continues to outline the area in a "marginal" risk of severe weather, with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat. Given the high pwats, any thunderstorms could also produce heavy downpours. At this time, there are no flooding concerns. Given the activity in the morning, it will be difficult to destabilize again for the afternoon and we will likely see just lingering showers as the front continues to sag through the area. However, if we end up seeing less or no activity in the morning, the stronger showers/thunderstorms could be in the afternoon. For this reason, have left chance of thunder through the day Thursday.
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There’s a small line currently in eastern Pa that is around 2 hours out. Maybe it could hold together somewhat.
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