hudsonvalley21

Looks like Upton is riding the NAM. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 420 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Coupled jet structure indicated by the models supports rapidly deepening low pres tracking thru the region on Sat. With the 12Z NAM and GFS sfc low tracks nearly identical, went close to the 12Z NAM for the bulk of the storm. Conceptual model for how the sys evolves is rain, changing to a mix of rain, sleet, and snow, then to all snow from nw to se before ending late Sat aftn/eve. Strengthening nwly winds as the low deepens during the day, with the gusty winds and strong caa lasting thru Sat ngt. At least some refreezing on surfaces by aftn into the eve. One of the main challenges is how fast the pcpn changes over. With an arctic airmass flowing into the region, the transition is expected to be fairly quick. The exact track will determine the speed with which the caa begins. Any change in the timing of the transition will impact snowfall amounts. Based on the progged track and timing of the 12Z suite of models, snowfall amounts have been increased across the area. Orange county has been upgraded to a wrng, and an advy was issued sewd to NYC and swrn CT. Even in areas that do not average 3 inches of snow, the added hazards of refreezing and high winds warranted the advy. Elsewhere, a winds advy was issued until midnight. The snow, where amounts are expected to be lesser, and refreezing hazards, have been included in the wind advy. At least a coating is expected in these areas attm. A wind advy may need to be issued for after 00Z for wrn portions of the area when the winter wx advisories end. Those spots most susceptible to the need for a wind advy are east of the Hudson River. Wind chills fall into the single digits Sat ngt across the entire area.

I think this is the Kuchera, could be wrong tho.

18z NAM up-ticked from the 12z run

18z NAM up-ticked the snow amounts from the 12z runs.

Well they went with the colder 12z runs. Now with wind gusts up to 40 in the point n click forecast. WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Orange County. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

Me neither, and just 1 inch above warning criteria for snowfall. maybe they are going with the high end maps from this morning. They haven’t updated those maps as of yet.

They might, my thought is they keep the warning up and tomorrow morning they might scale it back if the short range models back off after looking at the 00z runs.

Hopefully there won’t be so much paste with the winds and cold temps. Bad recipe for tree and power issues. Overnight Saturday could be tough for some especially up our way.

Hopefully the winds won’t be much of a factor along with the paste. Don’t need the tree and power line issues.

Forecast low on Saturday night in the area from the teens inland to the low 20’s along the coast will give some folks some frozen paste

This thing will be moving quickly, but as you mentioned, the dynamics will give a few lucky ones a nice event. We’ll see how it pans out.

12z NAM also backed off on the QPF along the coast vs. the 06z run. This thing will be moving along quickly.

Could be to cover the higher elevations in the area. My thought anyway.

They could bump up things in their afternoon package after looking at the 12z runs

Nice trends

Agree, and the WWA posted for Orange County is in that advisory criteria. Winter Storm Warning would be for 6”+ up this way. It will be interesting too see what the 12z runs show coming up.

3.1” will do it here.

Moderate snow here currently and accumulating on all surfaces now. Temp.31

Moderate snow here now accumulating on all surfaces. Temp.31

Moderate snow in Ramsey, NJ dusting on grassy surfaces. Temp 34

In Ramsey NJ. temperature 34 with a mixed bag. No accumulation

Agree, I doubt that we will see 10:1 ratios. Just showing that it appears that the QPF has bumped north.

We’ll said. Maybe one more time over the weekend too.

18z NAM is showing a little more for our area vs the 12z run