hudsonvalley21

Definitely possible. Up this way we had snow around Halloween a few years ago. Huge change from 7 days ago. Great help for the brush fires and the reservoirs.

As of the 18z run, it’s just under 200 hours out. Subject to change as usual.

Sure Walt, start a thread. Concerned about flooding, runoff with the hard ground an a good amount of QPF in a short time.

Absolutely, either rain,snow,or white rain, as long as it’s not a heavy short timed event. A slow soaking would be great to soften up the bone dry hard surface. 1-2” of QPF as of todays 18z runs thru Friday is great. Hopefully they hold serve.

A section of Upton’s AFD LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Models in good agreement with an anomalously deep closed upper low (2-3 standard deviations below normal heights) digging into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley Wed Night into Thu, lifting into the NE US on Friday, and then stalling over the NE US into the weekend. Global models have trended over the past 24 hours with a weaker surface low development over the Great Lakes and a stronger secondary low taking shape right over us late Wednesday night into Thursday. This will therefore be the period when rainfall chances will be at the highest. Can`t even rule out an isolated thunderstorm with the strengthening low center passing through coinciding with a little elevated instability. NBM probability of 1+ inches of rain Weds night through Thursday has increased to 30-50%, with deterministic models in pretty good agreement that we pick up 0.75 to 1.50 inches of rain during this time.

Let’s hope the rain will come in Wednesday night. Yup, Excellent job in Greenwood Lake last night.

With the fires jumping and moving and moving in several directions could be from underneath spread and elevation changes. They called a couple of Rockland County units in tonight as well. I believe that the evacuation became mandatory from previously being voluntary in one area. Also haven’t heard of the air tankers arriving also. The water drops of 350 gallons each take care of the surface but don’t penetrate far into the ground.

I’m kind of surprised that it jumped the line. Not sure what the winds are down there currently, winds were around 10-15 most of the day IMBY. Could be possible that it’s burning under ground and popped up past the back burn areas, only speculating. Haven’t seen any recent videos from the area. Hopefully they can keep ahead of it.

.01

Yup with the rockland companies covering for structure protection. Every Orange County department has been requested to send available manpower and equipment. Everyone is stretched thin currently. Hopefully the rain can knock down some tonight before the wind shift tomorrow and forecast winds to be 10-15. https://www.facebook.com/FDWCompound/posts/pfbid04yZfZcPruTDnsgTVTiSkrWCtUMVnDDLqaMm5LGG6h4pAUGS9N6u4n137JsDNqKGPl?__cft__[0]=AZVfJZ6ILcPRXS9hdXWROTwGicNTKxhH887DRP822S7eLotd1JJXhp5rD1a8QY9yDmdGUil2agt5oS803RYLoK8X6he8V-LSZxKWuHkNmZXR2gAeY8FmKDLgNI3TeHe6_AeaWvbF_sBjP2loNjtEKd53euPEnVuFNr0KRQSrmdTVxmYJmyZ-bufIy53ojHQjAZXLJfQtTfzeWGwJR7T_w7fWyw_xvQ4W99w_H8WpYMRQ_A&__tn__=-UK-R

So far the rain is very light. Only a trace here so far as of 7pm. The fire at Greenwood Lake had me smoke and some light ash. A far cry from folks living in that region. 3,000 acres burned so far with 10% containment and 1 loss of life from a firefighter . Thoughts and prayers and hopefully some desperately needed rain. https://www.facebook.com/NJForestFireService/posts/pfbid05iNfd4FWprJdQ3HCdBcSyY27Ka9efCdLiTaCvLQE9c3234Qct6TzwfHXEmXWpDD5l?__cft__[0]=AZWDDsHVPLbd3-nWn3Q0SOEjTjQFwEFkMRGBce6SeZHEQzVbHLCZgD_DF5e4Ex63WyX0Q-qhB-qpJYteb_9MWvA0lyqkWv_d4zRKhodoQGdUG-4z46QqhjwdDzTy2HL3X6IlFj5Cv992BbHVPJNLz_DkT9xgANWNaNEqEceMiTmwQEHQgvFmNEyt5Pq1jf9SoZVQaPs93R_r11hULdwlVbI_JhVXuejKihV6cLrQ0Da3BQ&__tn__=-UK-R

Nice day to go to the beach.

Agree, I was raking leaves in shorts and sweating today. It just ain’t right.

True, with the lack of moisture, the mosquito activity has dried up too.