Wxoutlooksblog
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If temperatures warm dramatically once the rain ends don't be surprised to see some showers and storms pop. But we'll see if there is too much cloudcover or if it takes too long to get out from underneath what's over us. WX/PT
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The Euro drew up these kinds of solutions for a week only to drop them in favor of a stronger Bermuda HP for one and a half days now back to its original thinking. You think it flips back to a strong Bermuda HP? Maybe but I doubt it. WX/PT
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European model back to wetter less warm scenario now with the upper lows over the southeast and southeasterly winds here. It goes back and forth. Followed by a mid Atlantic soaker. WX/PT
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Getting some good rain now here. A few rumbles in the distance. WX/PT
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Most of the models now seeming to adjusting to a considerably warmer look for the last 8 days of June. We'll see if they don't flip back to the extremely wet pattern but the 00Z models tonight so far showing an outside shot at 90 on at least a couple of days in the last 8 days of of the month. The coastal storms and inside runners of only a couple of days back seem to have pretty much vanished on the most recent maps. WX/PT
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I'm sandwiched for lunchtime between that one and the one to my e. I think the Astoria storm eventually has eyes at me and eventually will be a hail producer. WX/PT
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I had that a half hour earlier now here I go again. WX/PT
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Meanwhile here's what was supposed to be one of the 2-3 hot days at the end of June today on the GFS. WX/PT
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We could talk about if El Nino wasn't setting up but I think things would be very different right now if that wasn't happening. Entering into El Nino will not be good if you like a long hot summer here. Once the El Nino is established or weakening could also be a very different story. WX/PT
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Not in my memory. I think it can work both ways. A few examples of extremely hot summers followed by great winters correct me if I'm wrong---1966, 1993, 1995, 2002, 2010....just to name a few. But of course hot summer of 1983 was followed by a not so great winter of 83-84. So I think it works both ways and that it's not a great correlation. Another hot summer 1991 was followed by a not very good winter 91-92. WX/PT
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I'm again not believing the hype for heat at the end of this month. We keep seeing interludes where it looks real on the models only to rapidly disappear into onshore southeasterly or easterly winds marine layers galore yes higher humidity but probably also periods of rain. The heights come up some but with the developing El Nino jet stream energy and storms passing over us or even to our south, jet stream about 750 miles further south than normal, I say a cooler wetter than average summer is on the way. Now that doesn't mean there won't be the isolated days of heat in between the rain and fog makers. Maybe even a rare two days in the row at times. But I see this summer ending up with a grand total of 5-15 90+ days at Central Park. WX/PT
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Though .35-.55" rainfall tonight was not a very big deal most of the models suggest above normal rainfall for the next ten days. We should see more rain on Wednesday. WX/PT
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Anything is big after 2022-23. I'm guessing (first guess) we'll get 10-20" of snow next winter. WX/PT
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Heights building but no heatwave with an easterly wind. WX/PT
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What we're looking at here is temperatures gradually warming up over time but a pattern closer to winter 1960-61 than any pattern we've ever seen during a summer. Maybe a Donna look-alike will come up the coast. WX/PT
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Also back to my cooler summer outlook. When a piece of the heat ridge breaks off unfortunately this is where the high pressure will often end up. This is a cool outcome with surface winds off of the relatively cool ocean waters. WX/PT
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Thank you Brian. The best of the ridge remains west of us with only a piece breaking off and moving eastward once in a while. I would be surprised if July averages out much if at all above normal in NYC. WX/PT
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When the models indicated a change to much warmer/much colder, building ridge, deepening trough and kept postponing it usually never happened. This needs to be watched. It is not impossible that we are in the beginnings of cool summer from beginning to end with only a few isolated hot days and NO prolonged heat or even warmth. We've had these before--1996,1997, 2004, etc. WX/PT
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I'm a little skeptical that the cool weather pattern is going to change before the last two days of June or even early or mid July. WX/PT
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I think this is only the beginning of a busy day we'll see. Eyes to the radar not the models for these. With cold air aloft and energized jet these could pop at a moments notice as we get just a little daytime heating. WX/PT
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Just had a one boom and it's over kinda thunderstorm with very little rain. WX/PT
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With the exception of the brief 2 days warmth June 1st-2nd the cool late spring into early summer continues. Though we could see another brief shot at warmth or a day of heat sometime between the 12th and 20th any prolonged heat should wait until after June 22nd. I'm forecasting temperatures this summer here to average near to below normal temperatures but with several very hot periods. I believe it's a summer of extremes, when it's hot it could be very hot and when it's cool it could be very cool. And I believe this summer will have its share of cool wet weather as well with precipitation overall near normal. WX/PT
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We could add one next week but I think the odds are against it with light winds and probably onshore afternoon breezes. It looks to me more like mid to perhaps upper 80s for the city and coastal areas before the onshore breezes kick in. WX/PT
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I'm now looking for temperatures this July and August in the NYC Metro Region to average near to slightly below normal. We've had 2 90 degree days at the Park so far, I'm looking for 3-13 more. WX/PT
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But today's guidance was considerably warmer for later next week--mid-upper 80s outside chance of a 90 day. We'll see. I'm still not gung-ho for heat yet. WX/PT
