Wxoutlooksblog

That system most likely all or almost all rain along the coast and in the big cities as the primary tracks into the Lakes. WX/PT

I'm leaning towards taking the suppression solutions off the table. We are in what would normally be the time-frame where suppressive solutions would dominate. Only the GFS and last night's Euro to an extent have shown significant suppression. I think a major event of some kind is likely here. Exactly what, we wait another few runs to know for sure. WX/PT

Don't agree. Risk is either suppression or rain. We are in a phase where most of the models will trend south and east. We most likely will be in a trending north/west trend again as the event nears. It all depends on how far these trends go in each phase. WX/PT

Still got a long ways to go. In the 3-6 day time-frame it may trend again towards less amped then when we get inside of 60 or 72 hours it may reverse and trend a bit towards more amped again. This sometimes happens. We're a long ways from knowing the end result. WX/PT

Given trends there's a good chance the coastal forms too late and the track of the LP is too close to coastal sections but it could still change. WX/PT

Watching Jan 6th into the 7th. At this point, I have trouble seeing how this works out in in our favor. Definitely a thread the needle situation, if it comes too close to us, we're mostly rain, if it stays too far south we're on the edge of the precip get little if any. The GFS really indicated a nearly perfect track for snow from the Washington D.C. to Baltimore to Philly to NYC and LI. I'd be amazed if it actually worked out that way. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023123100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png

No major change in sight. WX/PT

We can wish. The pattern looks infinitely better at the end of the GFS run in the fantasy range. Finally a HP doesn't race eastward from eastern Canada and northern New England and overrunning moisture dumps lots of snow up the east coast. This at this point is nothing really but imaginary but if the fantasy maps were actually to verify we'd probably get at least 4-8" heavy wet snow. But maps on these dates will change a lot between now and then. It's encouraging however to see the model able to come up with this whereas previously we've seen pretty much nothing. WX/PT

Happy Holidays everyone!! WX/PT

I agree. And it's not December 1st or 13th. If what many forecasts for an active and cold winter were going to pan out, it is time to begin to see some evidence of it consistently in the longer range. I do not. Tonight and tomorrow are cold, but over the weekend and into next week, the cold leaves. There is no prolonged cold and none in sight. Yes the New Years Eve holiday weekend might be cold but dry. In order to get snow you have to have the cold and the moisture and/or storm at the same time. WX/PT

Here is the problem as I see it. While we've experienced lots of precipitation due to the almost tropical moisture accompanying storms which have hooked to our west our cold or modified cold outbreaks have been extremely transient and very short-lived. And when it's cold, it's dry. Storms are major super-moist lots of intensity with high winds and flooding and occur about every 7-10 days. Even though precip amounts are way above normal, it is NOT a stormy pattern historically for late December going into January. A stormy pattern over this time is an event every 3 days. When was the last time we got significant precipitation from a storm sliding under us with a cold HP to the north or n/w?? There are some red flags waving for the likelihood of the cold snowy winter forecasts most outlets have come up with. Even today's better looking maps which tend to be over 300 hours away do not show a ridge out west. Yes there's the split flow, but there's never cold HP locked in place when a low moves into the Plains and towards the east. Rather HP slides east of New England the low pressure curves northward and we are doused with heavy rain. I think this pattern of cold/dry alternating with warmer/wet will probably last into mid January at least and maybe longer. Then you look back at late starting winters here. Which ones are memorable? 1978 is the most notable. But I gotta say, there was fierce cold air pouring into the northeastern U.S. that year from November 1977 into December 1977 with several nights dropping well into the teens. We are struggling to get temperatures into the 20s this year. I'm just uncertain that what we'd like to see is going to happen this time. WX/PT

Would like to point out that a number of winters which featured some great snowstorms started out with some mild to warm weather in early December. 1960 even had several days with temperatures mid-upper 50s prior to the cold and snow which arrived on December 12th. 1982 had a day or two in the lower 70s in early Dec prior to the incredible snowstorm Feb 11, 1983. It is not uncommon to see some mild weather early in Dec prior to a more active and colder winter. WX/PT

I agree. Just a few adjustments out west and up north and clippers are capable of tapping bitterly cold air from central and eastern Canada and driving it across the Great Lakes and into the northeast. Right now the ridge is a little too expansive. It needs to retrograde or re-align itself for that to happen. WX/PT

There is a chance we will have to wait until later on. Clipper patterns tend to be on the drier side and with a big ridge over the western 2/3 of the country there's little moisture to be had unless you're right by the Gulf of Mexico or in Florida. Anyway in the longterm the pattern could change quickly at almost any time. So we'll see. WX/PT

It looks per the Euro that we're going to get into a clipper type pattern for a significant period of time. This means a milder day or two here and there but also repeated incursions of colder air with the risk of some light snow when the the clipper storm systems move across and there is some cold air still in place. Some of these systems may stay south of the NYC Metro but others could drop over the area from the north and west. As long as it lasts, these systems generally do not bring heavy or even moderate precipitation to the are so precip amounts should be near to perhaps a bit below normal. But we'll experience some cold and who knows, maybe we'll get lucky with a dusting to 2" at some point. WX/PT

This situation is not very far from producing a snowstorm somewhere in the NYC Metro Region. My feeling is that the GFS is holding onto the primary at least a bit too long with the blocking. All it takes is for this to re-develop a few hundred miles southeast of the primary and we're in business. WX/PT

The question for the upcoming winter has always been whether we'd get cold enough, not whether we'd get a good storm track happening. Now we're without the storm track as well. WX/PT

Tiny trickle of first heat from my landlord this morning. Not much. Just a tiny trickle. WX/PT

We may be a little ahead of ourselves. Autumn with perfect storm tracks for snow does not usually precede the best winters. In Autumn storms are often hooking to the left more. And if during winter there is good blocking over the North Atlantic and ample cold air this is not a concern. Even in the best of winters, some storms are going to hook left and bring rain to the coast. If they all tracked perfectly we'd get more than 100" snow. Not going to happen. WX/PT

Friday the day of the storm I left Hudson NY at 2:30PM for my apartment in Douglaston. The lower Taconic Parkway was closed so I just did what the GPS told me to do. It took me east on I-84 to 684 south. Going east on I-84 was the worst part of the trip obviously because I was driving back into some of the heavier bands of rain. I was glad to exit off of I-84 onto 684 South which was still pretty bad but as I got closer to the Hutchinson River Pkway things began to improve. But then of course the Hutchinson River Pkway was flooded and the GPS gave me a tour of Mamaroneck on the way to I-95 south. I-95 south was ok initially taking me towards the Throgs Neck but then traffic and perhaps more flooding prompted the GPS to give me a tour of the South Bronx and take me back over to the Whitestone Bridge. I finally returned to my place at about 5:55pm via the Clearview to 46th Ave 220 St and Northern Boulevard. WX/PT

Tomorrow it may back down on the heavy rain for Sunday. I do think we'll get a burst of moderate to heavy rain this AM. There might be a break from late today into most of tonight. But it's possible to that it may not be a complete break but just diminish into light rain and drizzle. WX/PT

It all depends on where one is. And those who live in Ohio would love to see storms tracking to over interior NY State. I suspect the season is going to be hyperactive and storms are going to track all over the place. Very few people likely to be disappointed. I just hope we we some cold air to work with. WX/PT

The pattern is transitioning into fall. And yes in a very short time-frame we've gone from tracking Lee to tracking the arrival of an autumn air mass into the Great Lakes. The models are struggling. A few days ago the models were depicting a warm to very warm finish to September and start to October. It does not appear that way now. It could change again but I wouldn't bet on it. The endless summer is going to end. WX/PT

Hurricanes moving up along or off of the eastern seaboard is often followed by a cold snowy winter. WX/PT

Yes it's a sneaky little coastal front almost a bit of an extreme backdoor. And it's going to sit where it is until it washes out. It could keep Central Park from reaching 90 today as a result of clouds and showers and maybe tomorrow due to a light onshore breeze. Yes parts of LI will hit 90 today due to greater amount of sunshine. But Central Park probably not. Maybe 88 or 89. WX/PT