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Wxoutlooksblog

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  1. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'd like to see a few more models showing it. But my gut feeling is that it will be, yes. WX/PT
  2. Wxoutlooksblog
    It's back. And right now with CMC indicating snow over the mid Atlantic States the likely track would keep this too far to our south and east and we'd stay high and dry. But the HP position is perfect on this run. It would only take some subtle changes to cause this system to track a little further north or turn up the east coast (less likely but still not impossible). So we watch and wait but it's still NOT boring. WX/PT
  3. Wxoutlooksblog
    You are reciting the Euro verbatim. It's 9 days away. Nobody knows where the surface low and upper low are going to actually end up. The model will go through many not so subtle changes from day to day for the next 5-7 days. But you're settling for model output exactly as it is 9 days out. WX/PT
  4. Wxoutlooksblog
    Two runs in a row pointing to a major storm of some kind somewhere on the east coast on February 5th. Yes, temperatures are marginal but this kind of storm can make its own cold air and its centered around February 5th, a rather historic time-frame. Not only that comparing last night's run to this one, changes are not subtle from run to run, last night's run being colder. I think it's worth watching this. WX/PT
  5. Wxoutlooksblog
    Boom! It's not boring. WX/PT
  6. Wxoutlooksblog
  7. Wxoutlooksblog
    This might or might get this far north but not boring. WX/PT
  8. Wxoutlooksblog
    Major northeastern coast winter storm potential brews on European model Sunday night into Monday as cold air presses south from eastern Canada. WX/PT
  9. Wxoutlooksblog
    I do NOT think our winter weather or wintry precip is over here in the NYC Metro Region. The models are showing an active storm track developing across the south and fresh cold high pressure systems keep getting pulled southeastward from eastern and central Canada. We will just need some timing cooperation. For January 28th it looks just a hair too warm to me at the start but it could end as snow, even maybe accumulating snow in some locations. As we work our way into February things might get better with the timing. Though temperatures could quite possibly continue to average near or slightly above normal. WX/PT
  10. Wxoutlooksblog
    At 72 hours CMC looks great for significant snow on Friday. GFS is just a whiff, not much at all. I think something closer to the CMC is the way to go here. It would have far greater potential if it slowed down which doesn't look likely. WX/PT
  11. Wxoutlooksblog
    My feeling is that this storm will not over perform. There are two greatly inhibiting factors. The models projecting the most precip for the area develop the low pressure center very close to the area and vertical velocities are much lower than what we usually see for the NYC Metro Region to get over 2" of snow. CMC has us changing to rain at the end. But to me the first red flag, low vertical velocity numbers tell me the snow could be quite light. WX/PT
  12. Wxoutlooksblog
    Pretty good look here. I guess the models were waiting for you all to go to sleep. Of course GGEM is extremely amped up changing the snow to rain in coastal areas. WX/PT
  13. Wxoutlooksblog
    . Very light snow Douglaston and Great Neck. WX/PT
  14. Wxoutlooksblog
    Flurries in Douglaston. WX/PT
  15. Wxoutlooksblog
    Much better and snowier look tonight on all models. WX/PT
  16. Wxoutlooksblog
    Once you lose the colder air you're not getting it back unless there's a new source. The storm could make its own cold air if the peak vertical velocities stay overhead long enough. But often times they don't. We'll have to see. the maps even with my cataracts still show rain. The heavy rain is visible just east of the r/s line in Queens. I'm not sure if the wrap around snow gets in here. The storm is moving quickly rain almost into Boston. WX/PT
  17. Wxoutlooksblog
    Look at the maps. The LP is way too tucked into the NJ coast. WX/PT
  18. Wxoutlooksblog
    It looks wrong. WX/PT
  19. Wxoutlooksblog
    Boston will even probably go over to rain. WX/PT
  20. Wxoutlooksblog
    GFS and CMC are each all rain for coastal areas and the big cities of the northeast. Just not enough or cold enough air. WX/PT
  21. Wxoutlooksblog
    Another thing as of now worth noting. There is not much of a reinforcing colder air mass coming in on the backside of the storm as it pulls away. This is important because as the lifting and vertical velocity dynamics pass their peak whatever snow there is falling will probably mix or change back over. Instead of an incoming HP we have the upper low which could bring a short period of rain or a mix early Sunday night. The incoming cold air is behind that upper low. But that cold air will most likely be wasted as the next storm system heads for the Lakes. WX/PT
  22. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'd be surprised if the NAM got it right Friday evening. Saturday morning it might be within range for the NAM, maybe. WX/PT
  23. Wxoutlooksblog
    I would be extremely surprised if the NAM correctly called this event Wednesday evening. I'd be shocked really. WX/PT
  24. Wxoutlooksblog
    With regards to the micro analysis of the HP to the north. The earlier maps (yesterday and the day before) showed it better locked in place. However please note. This is still marginally cold enough air and its penetration south at all levels is highly questionable. It's going to have to be nearly perfect for this to come together as a primarily snow event for coastal sections and I think we might be on the verge of losing that possibility. On the CMC it's gone. On the GFS it's almost gone. WX/PT
  25. Wxoutlooksblog
    Oh please! It is not 1996.
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