Wxoutlooksblog
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It looks like 2 or 3 surges of heat the first one borderline heat around the 12th-13th then a little more from the 17th or 18th-19th a break and then more heat from the 21st perhaps. The GFS is kinda nuts. I'm following the EPS mostly. WX/PT
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They're actually in the warm sector. WX/PT
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Basically agree. It's weakening. WX/PT
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You might be rushing the heat and humidity back in. I think it takes until August 15th for us to have our next 90+ threat. WAR tries to build in earlier but is short circuited by a few backdoor and other weak cold fronts with showers and storms. Starting about the 15th I think we could see a little more prolonged heat. Of course NYC (Central Park) has not had an official heatwave (3 or more days 90+) this season so far. I think they will have two or three more shots at one between now and September 10th.....probably two shots in August. Around Aug 15th-17th and again Aug 20th-23rd. WX/PT
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Amazing changes on some of the models tonight. Initially, GFS is notably cooler than previous runs through the first half of its run with a a bit of a trough in the east and the heat ridge out west. Later in the run around August 15th the WAR builds in the east. However, the CMC has reversed the whole picture with a trough in the west and a massive ridge in the east by 240 hours. Interesting to see where we're going with two ideas competing to see which is correct. No heat vs. heat for our region. WX/PT
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Euro now showing a second low pressure accompanied by another cold front possibly delaying the heat/humidity from 8/14 to 8/16. Just ahead of that front it appears we could see a day of warmth possibly heat and humidity on the 12th. WX/PT
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Yes all the models showing strong low pressure moving across the upper Great Lakes to a position north of Maine early next week dragging with it a strong cold front which could initiate a severe weather threat August 7th-9th across most of the northeast. Behind that high pressure which is initially on the cool side builds in but the longer range models/ensembles show how WAR swallows that HP system up and back builds a heat and humidity pump around it for mid August. WX/PT
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Having been here quite a while it's been a long time since I've experienced as pleasant a stretch of weather in early August as this. Maybe 2014 but I was still receiving chemo and radiation so my memory could be a little blurred. In spite of some of the modeling for later this month which has us in nearer to normal temperatures I do think we will see more hot weather this summer. WX/PT
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This is not 2002. There should not be any comparisons. I'm not saying we're going to have 10 consecutive 90+ days in August. Just that we may average more above normal temperatures than the rest of the summer has had here. It often happens after a normal or cooler than normal first half. WX/PT
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I think that the second half of August could be the hottest part of this summer, overall. I think that it's possible. WX/PT
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Most of the other models today and GEPS and EPS only had a couple of days of real heat before bringing a cold front through around the 29th or 30th and had a trough stretching from the eastern Great Lakes to southeast Canada and the nw Atlantic. But it's still far enough ahead that we do not know for sure whether or not we'll get a heatwave over this time. WX/PT
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I would be awfully surprised. 26th-28th look hot to me. WX/PT
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Actually, the models tonight are trending dramatically warmer overall. Yes there's still the cooler stretch from July 21-23 but after that the models warm but all go in somewhat different directions. The CMC is the drier solution with the warm up to possibly hot conditions while the GFS positions HP too far north off of the Atlantic seaboard with a southeasterly fetch and tons of moisture for a day or two before another weak cold front passes through and we turn hot. But then it spins up a hurricane off of the southeast coast. The most dramatic change however was on the GEFS which develops a ridge stretching from Spain and Portugal westward into the Pacific and pretty much the entire CONUS is under an enormous ridge which would probably signal heat if it were correct. WX/PT
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I agree. I think the worst is mostly over with some drier air beginning to punch east into western NJ . Could see one or two rogue lines of showers/storms if there's any heating between 5-7PM. Other than that, for most of us, it's onto Tuesday. Should be near 90 tomorrow. Tues and Friday the stormy days this week. WX/PT
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WAR protecting you at no cost. WX/PT
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Cool shot already looking warmer 19th-21st. WAR holds strong. Maybe it waits for the clipper comes in behind it the 21st-22nd. WX/PT
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For the park--Today, tomorrow (50% chance), Friday probably not possible severe wx, Saturday 40% chance, Sunday possible severe wx, Monday 40% chance, Tuesday 50% chance and possible severe wx. Cooler 19th-20th or 21st. WX/PT
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Not going to get to last year's totals unless there are one or two extended long heatwaves in August. The pattern right now is not favorable for that but it's not impossible because there's no really cool air behind the cold fronts and we have a strengthening WAR. WX/PT
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Almost. We are only through one week of July and much can change. The two features battling it out, upper lows moving across Canada and into the northwestern Atlantic and WAR. As of now it does appear that WAR is going to become increasingly more dominant. I think a day or two or three of 100 during this month or next month is not out of the question as long as the w-sw to e-ne orientated WAR does become dominant. WX/PT
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All the ensembles and operational models today showing a major change in the pattern occurring over time over this week, next week, and beyond. Heights building in (WAR) from se to nw over time. Cold fronts from the nw being rendered impotent, stalling, washing out, maybe one day dewpoint relief, that's it. We are getting into a much hotter overall pattern favoring eventually an extended heatwave and the probability of summer 2023 ending up with over 15 90+ days, possibly double that number. We'll just have to wait watch and see how this unfolds but it appears the stranglehold of upper low pressure over the northwest Atlantic and eastern Canada on our overall pattern here in the northeast U.S. is about to be broken. WX/PT
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All the ensembles and operational models today showing a major change in the pattern occurring over time over this week, next week, and beyond. Heights building in (WAR) from se to nw over time. Cold fronts from the nw being rendered impotent, stalling, washing out, maybe one day dewpoint relief, that's it. We are getting into a much hotter overall pattern favoring eventually an extended heatwave and the probability of summer 2023 ending up with over 15 90+ days, possibly double that number. We'll just have to wait watch and see how this unfolds but it appears the stranglehold of upper low pressure over the northwest Atlantic and eastern Canada on our overall pattern here in the northeast U.S. is about to be broken. WX/PT
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I was making a comment about a particular model run several days back. It was not a post as to whether or not extended heatwaves do or do not happen any more. I sometimes wonder if you even read the posts you think you're responding to or the context in which things are being said. Yes extended heatwaves will occur again in fact last year Central Park had 26 90+ days, not sure if you were around here or even keeping track. A few have been going for a very hot summer here. That was the subject matter. Not extended heatwaves. Thanks. WX/PT
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The have more money pay higher taxes holidays are dry lol. WX/PT
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They're not going to get out there. Enjoy the day. You are WAR protected particularly on the South Shore. WX/PT
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Storms will die off before they get out there. They are WAR protected. WAR has built in northern edge kind of a w-sw to e-ne flat line covering the ocean waters to our south and east. This is why the storms and cold fronts are not barreling on through and the storms just move very slowly to about central Nassau then die out then they reform back to the west or over NYC Metro Region. This WAR at this point is NOT a heat producer just a protective wall effect shielding the affluent out on the east end and on Fire Island. WX/PT
