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Yes this is one of the things I've mentioned as we watched the different model solutions come in. The over the top can still bring us a few hot days but less likely the 100 degree kind of heat and afternoon onshore winds drop temperatures nearer the coast meaning our daily maximums tend to be at or before 1PM. So while it may be 100 degrees in Burlington Vt Central Park can be 89 or 91 and struggling to get even there. Also this kind of set up can minimize our number of 90+ days. In prior posts I've mentioned I thought we might see this sort of over the top this summer season. WX/PT
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To further illustrate the point I just made, this is probably not 90+ degree heat for most of the NYC Metro Region. A b-door front came through on the 20th and winds here are light but right off of the ocean from the southeast. A backdoor front such as this could eliminate 2 or 3 of the potential very hot days at the end of next week holding temperatures in the mid-upper 80s or lower. Then if you do follow the 18Z run of the GFS which I personally wouldn't take too seriously at this point, when the winds finally do back around they are from the south-southwest ushering in 75 degree dew points and not 95 degree heat. There are worlds of differences from one model to another and run to run on the same model right now. So while I tend to believe it's going to come back to at least 3 days of heat, I'd be careful about betting on 5 at this moment. WX/PT
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And it depends on your location. My posts usually reference Central Park with statistics. There's lots of uncertainty where the core of the heat next week is going to end up. How any backdoor cold fronts may affect it. Thunderstorm activity, etc. Yes we could have 4-6 90+ days at the Park if the European model maps of yesterday and today verify. WX/PT
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And might have two or three. WX/PT
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Situation where backdoor fronts can make it hotter because there is little if any genuinely cooler air behind them and they force the winds to go more west-northwesterly out ahead of them downsloping and compression making it hotter. Now I'm seeing some 100s. WX/PT
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I'm looking for historic heat next week because the Euro has been hinting at it but the GFS is not showing it. Normally the GFS is the model that would go nuts with this kind of heat. But it's showing winds too southerly, looks like for coastal sections and the big cities relatively typical lower 90s if that and cooler at the shore. But Euro suggest the more westerly winds and higher temperatures. We'll see. The map below would be low-mid 90s for most of us big cities and closer to the coast. WX/PT
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Looks like heavy showers & storms overnight tonight. The 12Z GFS has heat from 6/17 to the end of the run. It is all beyond 300 hours and will probably change but who knows. WX/PT
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Most of the heat this season IMO is likely to go over the top or be very short-lived. The jet stream is going to set up and already is set up further south of normal, the Bermuda HP further south and east of normal. This in combination with the recurrent upper low over eastern Canada and the nw Atlantic wrapping b-door fronts and the like, days of cyclonic flow and of course the blocking. I'm projecting 5-11 90+ days mostly from mid July to mid August. Of course overnight minimums will keep us above normal overall on temps. But I'm not seeing an extremely hot summer incoming. WX/PT
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I think slight variations on this pattern could last most of the summer. I'm not looking for much heat but if there is some most of it from mid July to mid August. Then we'll see the tropics perk up with most vulnerable areas IMO the Gulf Coast, southeast U.S. coast, and islands in the tropics. I'm looking for early recurvature thinking that all features will be slightly south and east of their usual position on the maps. WX/PT
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I'd say any heat in the northeast is very unlikely prior to June 15th with a lower than normal probability of any heat for the remainder of June. Out west, it's the reverse. They will bake. WX/PT
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Not really seeing how we can get any heat into the NYC Metro Region with a pattern like this. WX/PT
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I'm not sure if these maps are the stuff low 90s are really made of in this pattern which has only slightly and temporarily changed. But I could see borderline heat in the 86-91 degree range across the region each day. And maybe Central Park just barely touches 90 one or two of the days. I could see that, especially Wednesday. WX/PT
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I think that if anything, temperatures will probably over perform this week Tues-Thurs especially Wednesday. WX/PT
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From what I am observing on the maps it would appear that there could be at least a couple of days of early season borderline heat next week per the Euro Op, Euro AI, and the CMC. GFS is totally not on board for this. We are talking upper 80s to perhaps low 90s. Winds are w-sw. WX/PT
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This is really starting to get extremely annoying. WX/PT
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Meteorologist 891 Posted 3 minutes ago I'm noticing almost kind of a jump on the maps from April into May. We seem to be quickly jumping into a much warmer possibly eventually hot summer pattern. Temperatures were modeled to be in the mid-upper 60s here for today and we're going to top out somewhere between 78-83. There is a southeast wind but it's very light and the temperatures have warmed quickly up until now with no clouds. By a week from now we could be at least flirting with 90. Both GFS and CMC show this. Bermuda HP trying to take shape as the nw Atlantic upper low gradually loses its grip. WX/PT
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I'm noticing almost kind of a jump on the maps from April into May. We seem to be quickly jumping into a much warmer possibly eventually hot summer pattern. Temperatures were modeled to be in the mid-upper 60s here for today and we're going to top out somewhere between 78-83. There is a southeast wind but it's very light and the temperatures have warmed quickly up until now with no clouds. By a week from now we could be at least flirting with 90. Both GFS and CMC show this. Bermuda HP trying to take shape as the nw Atlantic upper low gradually loses its grip. WX/PT
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Little if any prolonged warmth or heat prior to May 10th. Yes a day or two of 70s to perhaps near 80 the 29th-30th of April but the upper low over the nw Atlantic continues to dominate into mid May possibly beyond. WX/PT
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I think it may be in the 80s to near 90 next Monday. We'll see what if any backdoor activity there is and how westerly our surface winds are. If the winds are more southerly, we'll say in the lower 80s. If we see a b-door front Sunday night we'll stay in the 60s/70s. WX/PT
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We are still in a wet pattern with an upper low in the northwestern Atlantic dominating. We've had computer model runs suggesting that this pattern might end or shift northward but thus far they've all been wrong. The best we can do in this type of pattern is an isolated day here and there around 80 perhaps but mostly 70s with quite a few days still only in the upper 50s and 60s. WX/PT
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Still there. WX/PT
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This is the problem and it was also the problem a year ago. We'll see if that upper low ever relinquishes its domination over the weather in the northeast this summer. Last year it really didn't. And the ridge building is in the Plains States. Plains and western mid west. WX/PT
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I did not say it took that. And I also stated there were two out of 11 30+ 90+ day summers without any heat prior to June. WX/PT
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I'm not. I'm not saying we won't but I am anything but very confident about it. WX/PT
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In 1980 you had two 90+ days in May. WX/PT