Wxoutlooksblog
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The question for the upcoming winter has always been whether we'd get cold enough, not whether we'd get a good storm track happening. Now we're without the storm track as well. WX/PT
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Tiny trickle of first heat from my landlord this morning. Not much. Just a tiny trickle. WX/PT
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We may be a little ahead of ourselves. Autumn with perfect storm tracks for snow does not usually precede the best winters. In Autumn storms are often hooking to the left more. And if during winter there is good blocking over the North Atlantic and ample cold air this is not a concern. Even in the best of winters, some storms are going to hook left and bring rain to the coast. If they all tracked perfectly we'd get more than 100" snow. Not going to happen. WX/PT
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Friday the day of the storm I left Hudson NY at 2:30PM for my apartment in Douglaston. The lower Taconic Parkway was closed so I just did what the GPS told me to do. It took me east on I-84 to 684 south. Going east on I-84 was the worst part of the trip obviously because I was driving back into some of the heavier bands of rain. I was glad to exit off of I-84 onto 684 South which was still pretty bad but as I got closer to the Hutchinson River Pkway things began to improve. But then of course the Hutchinson River Pkway was flooded and the GPS gave me a tour of Mamaroneck on the way to I-95 south. I-95 south was ok initially taking me towards the Throgs Neck but then traffic and perhaps more flooding prompted the GPS to give me a tour of the South Bronx and take me back over to the Whitestone Bridge. I finally returned to my place at about 5:55pm via the Clearview to 46th Ave 220 St and Northern Boulevard. WX/PT
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Tomorrow it may back down on the heavy rain for Sunday. I do think we'll get a burst of moderate to heavy rain this AM. There might be a break from late today into most of tonight. But it's possible to that it may not be a complete break but just diminish into light rain and drizzle. WX/PT
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It all depends on where one is. And those who live in Ohio would love to see storms tracking to over interior NY State. I suspect the season is going to be hyperactive and storms are going to track all over the place. Very few people likely to be disappointed. I just hope we we some cold air to work with. WX/PT
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The pattern is transitioning into fall. And yes in a very short time-frame we've gone from tracking Lee to tracking the arrival of an autumn air mass into the Great Lakes. The models are struggling. A few days ago the models were depicting a warm to very warm finish to September and start to October. It does not appear that way now. It could change again but I wouldn't bet on it. The endless summer is going to end. WX/PT
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Hurricanes moving up along or off of the eastern seaboard is often followed by a cold snowy winter. WX/PT
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Yes it's a sneaky little coastal front almost a bit of an extreme backdoor. And it's going to sit where it is until it washes out. It could keep Central Park from reaching 90 today as a result of clouds and showers and maybe tomorrow due to a light onshore breeze. Yes parts of LI will hit 90 today due to greater amount of sunshine. But Central Park probably not. Maybe 88 or 89. WX/PT
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This front was on the GFS two days ago and on a few runs of the NAM 3KM. I noted it in my last post. It's going to be difficult for Central Park to hit 90 today and tomorrow, today because of cloud cover and showers/storms and tomorrow because of a light onshore breeze. This is not a heatwave for NYC in my opinion. WX/PT
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Don't be shocked if NYC does not have a heatwave at all. The problem being an extremely backdoor front which would affect coastal areas as far west as NYC itself from NYC to Maine. The coastal b-door front would move from the northeast Monday night. So maybe we would hit 90 on Sunday or Monday but more likely high temperatures at Central Park are around 88 or 89. And Tuesday we could be dealing with onshore winds almost all day. Now I'm not sure if this scenario will come true but it can be seen on the regular NAM and NAM 3KM and it would be consistent with the history of our potential heat for the last 6 weeks. WX/PT
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Still have a shot at 90. Sun broke through in last hour. We'll see. WX/PT
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Too much cloudcover and the cold front is moving in quickly. Central Park will probably top out at about 86. WX/PT
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I think Monday is the best possibility for a 90. Very slight chance Sunday. Beyond then, again if you believe the GFS there could be a chance Thursday or Friday but the GFS performance has been extremely poor particularly beyond 4 days so I'm not ready to take it very seriously. WX/PT
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Again the GFS with a very abbreviated glancing blow of heat for Monday followed by potentially severe storms Monday evening as a cold front crosses and unseasonably cool weather later Tuesday through Saturday....if you believe the GFS. CMC is basically the same idea. This not a forecast but just what these particular model runs suggest. WX/PT
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Of course you finally get your backdoor at 216 hours. But the only support right now this solution has the GFS from 5 days ago. That's not a strong yes vote. And the idea of the LP kicking the first HP behind the first b-door front out to sea seems not right for no other reason than it hasn't happened all summer. WX/PT
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But what happens when the heat is expanding and the HP dropping behind the b-door front is weak and only a nose from a HP in central Canada. The HP becomes a LP and our heat is extended possibly throughout next week. We'll be questioning this solution today for a while before buying it. WX/PT
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And at 168 hours your b-door front is almost here. But we are pretty solidly in this heat for a day and a half possibly 2 days. WX/PT
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And yes at 144 we are looking at an expanding heat dome of very hot air. I would be careful about the idea that this will in fact occur. I think right now the odds weigh more heavily in favor of a b-door front around the 22nd but this run at 144 hours makes it look like a longer heatwave. WX/PT
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May have to eat my words as at 120 while not as warm here the heat dome is building into Canada on the Euro. It's going to have a hard time bypassing us completely if this run is correct. WX/PT
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Euro through 96 hours is coming in cooler than last night's run and less aggressive with the hot air mass over the central U.S. We'll see how this run completes but I think we're moving towards a consensus that we'll be on the edge of the hot air mass for 24 hours Sun-Mon and then cooler. WX/PT
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I have yellow jackets all the time in my apartment as do my nextdoor neighbors. We are attributing it to an abundance of construction going on next door to us on our block where an 8 story building is going up. Yellow jackets can deliver a mean sting which is worse if you're allergic. I have not been stung yet. They do not live long once they're indoors. WX/PT
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Is this is a special bug thread? Anyway, not to be off-topic, CMC forecasting some high heat Tuesday and Wed of next week we are inside of 582dm thicknesses. Probably close to or around 100 Tuesday and about 98 before the b-door front comes through Wednesday if CMC were correct. Much cooler Thursday on brisk n-ne winds. GFS and ECMWF much different each model indicating one marginally hot day if that probably on Monday. We'll see which is right. WX/PT
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I see them all the time. WX/PT
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Looks like a few days of heat coming up starting next weekend. I do not foresee anything extreme or crazy like the GFS has shown on many of its runs. As for last night's storms, the lightning was great where I am, the thunder I've heard louder. WX/PT
